Initial US employment reports overstated by 439,000 jobs in 2023

If trump doesn't end up in jail, you can bet next year will be the best economy in the history of economies.

 

100% false report. The data is easily available here:

Nonfarm Payroll Employment: Revisions between over-the-month estimates, 1979-present

From 1st est to 3rd for Trumps last year and all Biden’s:
2020 Overestimated the number of jobs added by 64k each month
2021 Underestimated the number of jobs added by -59k each month
2022 Underestimated the number of jobs added by -20k each month
2023 Overestimated the number of jobs added by 15k each month

THEY ARE NOT ADDITIVE. That report isnt a distortion… it is a lie. They are estimating total jobs on top of revisions so they are incorporated in the next month’s totals. The totals are within 15k per month on a number that is around 170M.

If every month I said there were 170,015,000 and there was actually 170,000,000 every month, at the end of the year there was only 15,000 jobs over estimated… not 180,000 or 15k per month times 12.

Or…If you had $20 in your wallet every month and I estimated you had $25 every month Fox wants you to believe you have $5X12, or $60, less money in your wallet than I estimated. LOL. What a bunch of tools.

 

If the Biden was trying to hide the real figures, why does it release them?

 

So, if they state the market created 170,000 every month for 12 months, it created 2,040,000 jobs for the year. If the 170,000 is corrected down to 150,000/month, then didn't it create 1,800,000 jobs or over-stated job creation by 240,000 jobs?
How do you do the math any other way?

 

Once again what are you looking at?

The only month last year (December will still have to go through revisions and Nov still has two more) that didn't have a negative revision was July. Even with that, the average is -41k per month between Jan - October! That -417k between those months.

 

No. Maybe this will help...

 

417k jobs would be the correct amount of overcounted between Jan and Oct, no?

That is what the article the OP posted is saying (granted they added the 1st revision for Nov)...

At this point, no one has any idea what you are even trying to argue.

 

This is not what Fox is saying though!

 

If you measured your temperature every month and the thermometer said 99.6 degrees every month was your temperature off 12 degrees? You guys are making me worry about the results of an American education.

If they tracked daily instead of Monthly would you say that they were 19M jobs off?????

 

Uh, your temperature is a constant 99.6, doesn't the job report talk about created new job for the month? Your analogy doesn't work.
I'm not sure we are all talking about the same thing!!! If the jobs report for one month says it added 170,000 jobs, then is revised down to 150,000 jobs for that month and that happens 10 month in a row. The initial report for the year before correction would read 1,700,000 jobs added. Once corrected it would say 1,500,000 jobs added for the year.
What part of that do you not understand?

 

It wouldn't matter if they tracked it daily or monthly, end result is currently at -417k jobs overcounted in the first 10 months of 2023.

Are you going to try and tell me that 10 months out of the year is not significant enough? I guess 83.3% of the year is not enough for you.

Should we wait until it is 2 years later and in a full-blown recession before we start to wonder what is going on with BLS calculations or formulas?

 

No it wouldn’t. The revisions corrected the number. The new estimates are added to the lower number not the higher number. That’s what they are for. So you don’t get off more than 50,000 jobs at any point. Sigh.

 

I’m telling you on average we have 156M people plus or minus 50k working. I’m also telling you the revisions aren’t additive because they aren’t adding numbers to the estimate, they are adding to the adjusted number. You guys are really struggling here.

 

This topic has more to do with just how off BLS has been this year. You want to talk about what the labor force did. We are simply talking about how many negative revisions happened in 2023.

Also, as always, you have to pay attention to monthly trends. Typical recessions are not official until we have already started to experience a decline in the labor force. It happens virtually every single time we have a recession. I am not saying we are in one right now but you act as if we shouldn't be looking at these monthly numbers.

The final number is no longer an estimate, it's the final number of jobs added that month after 3 revisions.

Household survey also showed a loss of 1.531 full-time job losses and added 762k part-time. On top of that, multiple job holders increased by 222k which is an all-time high.
This is the reason the markets pivoted Friday after the reaction to the headline number.

 

So for the year we still added 2.7 million jobs, which is far more jobs than we added in any year under your hero Trump. And you know that when Trump was president we had the greatest economy in the history of the US, because Trump told you so. So now we are adding even more jobs than we did when we had the greatest economy in the history of the US. You should be ecstatic.

 

This is about mischaracterizing the report. I've shown you the math. There are not 431,000 fewer people working than they claimed. That is a lie.

Feel free to predict when the economy will turn bad though. I know Biden critics would like it to crash soon. Good luck, or good bad luck. Not sure how to wish correctly.

 

So, you are saying we have 156M people working up or down 50K at any given time? So how can any President claim their administration created 14 million jobs? You are stating that the 156M is static. Doesn't the report after revisions say we added 2.4M jobs? Maybe there is comprehension concerns on what the meaning of created jobs means? Doesn't it mean they added that many new jobs? So 156M is not static is it?

 

I am saying you cant add them all up and have a number that means anything. If I overestimated the jobs by 50,000 every single month there would only be 50,000 fewer jobs at the end of the year. Not some giant number of 50,000+50,000+.... 12 times. That is crazy.

 

umm well, the claim is that there are 417k fewer people added to the labor force than the first estimate released by BLS. Good luck trying to say that is not true... somehow...