Article: Napier two years in

24 season will tell us all we need to know IMO.

 

Good article and I cannot really argue with much of what he says. I want Napier to succeed and think he COULD be a very good CEO type coach. I also think he is too hands on in the little things and overseeing the whole program as well as he could (See special teams, time management, etc...) I am still hoping that he hires a good OC and turns the offense over to him so that Napier can concentrate on the WHOLE program.

 

Thanks! That was interesting, I didn't realize things were looking that bad for Napier.
I have to say I expected the rebuild to be much further along after year 2. I had bought into the "Army of Assistants" methodology he was preaching when he came in. Already in year one it was noticeable that having hordes of helpers didn't seem to have any advantage. It's like they fell prey to group-think and couldn't recognize issues to find ways to correct things. It also seemed prior coaches with smaller staffs like SOS and Urban could take quick corrective action (from one week to the next or even during a game) to turn things around.

 

I would think BN would be in considerable hot water had it not been for this program UF being on a steady roller coaster of coaches who have been fired. To let BN go would mean he's the 4th coach to be let go within a very short span of time. That imo would be a red flag to any potential coach thinking about coming here, it's been like a graveyard.
The other thing going in BN's favor is his huge buyout. To fire him in a year or two still means a hefty payout not just for him but all assistants not kept and likely having to buy out someone else's coach. I sense there is a tiredness of paying that amount of money for coaches to leave.

If we are being honest, these past two years have most definitely given cause for concern about the future of this program under BN. I would say because of his character and love for players most of us want him to succeed. I suspect he has not one but two years to right the ship and I agree Lagway needs to be a home run recruit.

It is apparent we cannot play in such a way as to barely beat teams by a few points. When this program was successful we often buried teams. I am hoping for a good year in 2024 and will be again rooting for UF game after game.

 

I think if we judge the season on record, everyone is going to be disappointed which is probably not what anybody wants to hear, but I think that's reality.

I'm more worried about having something to hang your hat on. It could be offense, it could be defense, it could be dogfight competitive showings against quality teams. But we need to see some light at the end of the tunnel before signing day of next season.

A competent special teams would also be nice, but that alone won't make the difference.

 

This article could have been much shorter without all the statistics, which aren't at all surprising. I can't recall if it was Napier or a sportswriter who pointed out that ULL under Napier had a lot of one score wins and the comment was something about being conservative and being okay to win close games as long as you win which occurred in his opening presser. To me, that immediately smacked of Muschamp, but at least Muschamp mostly fielded a competent defense during his tenure. The numbers provided by Miles obviously point out the issue with one score game coaching records being reduced even among great coaches.

One thing that Spurrier knew and Miles didn't point out is that officiating "errors" are terribly magnified in close games and at times can directly impact the result.

 

Thanks for posting but I just hate statistics. They're for losers...

 

I think its simple really:

1. Beat UM so a toxic start to the season won't occur.
   
2. Win ALL the games in which we are favored.
3. Be competitive (at least) in games in which we are an underdog and maybe steal 1 or 2.
   
4. Don't have a losing regular season.
   
5. For God's sake show some improvement on Defense and ST.

I think that 1, 4, and 5 are absolutely necessary for Napier to continue as coach after next season. Having an acceptable season without those items occurring will be like a trying to hit on an inside straight. If all the above occurs and we finish 6-6 or 7-5 next year, than I'm good with having Napier continue into 2025.

 

if he wins with next years schedule, he will earn the right to stay.
we honestly could win our first 5 games, then drop our next 7.
Our Nov schedule has to be the hardest in the history of football.
vs Dawgs
at Texas
vs LSU
vs Ole miss
at FSU

 

If we drop the final 7 games of 2024 Napier will and should be replaced.

 

Thanks for posting that. Hard to argue with. Just sucks. I hope he can turn it around. I don’t want him to be a Mike White type - great & very likable person, but can’t take the Gators to the next level.

 

With respect to game results next season, Florida's best-case scenario lies in nearly sweeping their first seven games (Miami, Samford, Texas A&M (with a new coach), Mississippi State, UCF, Tennessee, and Kentucky) and scraping 1-2 of their last 3 (LSU (Kelly's had some issues and Daniels is gone), Ole Miss, and FSU).

The problem I see is all of these are winnable games, but I don't see any game on the schedule except Samford (and maybe UCF, but everyone and their mother knows we're their Super Bowl next season and they're going to play us tough) that involves significant roster mismatches in Florida's favor. That's a problem with a head coach that struggles with clock management and in-game decision-making because games with comparable talent between teams are where these things really matter.

Next season feels more like an NFL schedule in the sense than you don't see "locked wins." You have a tough rivalry game in week 1 and it's a gauntlet from week 3 on.

 

24? Where is that Scotch, I will be 86!

 

I tend to agree. Show me defensive and special team improvement, a better offensive line, better organization and less critical mistakes / penalties.
Having posted the above, I will admit that a record worse than 6 - 6 will be a very bitter pill.

 

There were four games in 2023 that were critical, and we didn't win any of them.

We absolutely should have beaten Arkansas and Mizzou, and we blew it. There really were no excuses for losing those two.

We probably should have beaten either the corndogs or the holes and we didn't.

Had we done that, we would all feel ok with the season. That's a big "if" I know, but still, it was all achievable.

Other than the brutal nature of next year's schedule, the above makes me feel a bit optimistic. We lost close games we should have won. I like our incoming class. I think Mertz is good, and Lagway may light it up right away. If our o-line improves, we should score more points. And I don't see how our defense could possibly be worse.

I think we win more close ones next year.

 

NOOOOoooooo!!!! Now you've jinxed us. I've been saying this since after the 2020 season.

 

An army of assistants only works if they are good and you stay out of the weeds to let them work.

 

Yes..that no matter what he will be the coach at the start pf 2025!

 

What happens if we go 4-8...the most likely outcome?