The Analytics of Todd Golden

With all of this analytics talk I can't believe coaches and staff never looked at stats prior to it becoming a buzz word. It's a lot like some Quality and Lean people at work. Somehow they think engineers and scientist never knew anything about troubleshooting, making measurements and math in the past.
One thing about statistics to keep in mind is averages don't predict the next event. They can be a good descriptive estimate over the long haul plus or minus some uncertainty. But, don't sell short coaching savy at the moment and just accept that's what the numbers said to do.

 

One must remember that some are inflated because of the faster pace of play. When you speed up the game, you get more possessions and therefore more points but your opponent also gets more possessions and points. Efficiency is more important than highs and lows.

 

Wow, that's impressive. On the bright side, we do seem to have a really good free throw defense. I take it that might not be a stat that gets measured.

Go GATORS!
,WESGATORS

 

Didn’t read this thread, but it has factored massively into player acquisition. Offensive rebounding rate is one of the “four factors” in hoops analytics, so he went out and got big guys with good OR rates, plugged them in, and now our OR rate has made a relatively poor shooting team into an effective offensive team because of extra shots. Also, usage rate was historically low in backcourt last year, so he added multiple guards who were average to above average in that category, and they have both been major contributors. Not all analytics eschew traditional hoops positions (D’antoni) or strategy. They often just use them to assess where their team is weak structurally.

 

Thinking about how much efficiency (offensive points/possession less defensive ppp) plays into the net rankings (comprised of adjusted efficiency - a team’s net efficiency adjusted for strength of opponent/location - and team value index), might answer questions about CTG's analytics, which were touched on in these two posts.

The most common formula for estimating possessions is (FGA – OR) + TO + (0.44 * FTA) (The Possession | The kenpom.com blog). The offensive rebound continues the possession. I'd guess that most offensive rebounds result in a dunk or "close" 2-pointer. From barttorvik.com UF is shooting 90% on dunks & 59.7% on "close" 2-pointers. UF is 40.5% on "far" 2-pointers & 33.3% on 3-pointers so those offensive rebounds & resulting high percentage shots really help our offensive (and of course net) efficiency. From Florida Gators UF ranks #265 in turnovers per game, so if we could reduce those it would help.

 

Decrease the turnovers and increase the free throw percentage and we will be Golden!

 

Well, recent Gator teams missed a whole lotta shots and still didn't rebound for $hit, so . . .

 

Ouch. Good point.

 

if anything he might use analytics when targeting transfers and recruits, but i don't think he uses it in game situations....except perhaps for halftime adjustments

 

You think you are making a joke but knowing what guys to foul and what guys to not foul is really important.

 

i suspect he uses extensive analytics in pre-game planning, but I've noticed that our rebound margin grows significantly after halftime, so maybe he is finding a few opps there too.