Texas towns make it illegal to use roads to travel out of state for an abortion.

Prove causation.

I already showed you maternal mortality went up 136% between 1990 and 2014, all within the framework of Roe.

 

Causation is difficult to prove. But the correlation is obvious. Again, poor minority areas have seen a bigger increase in maternal mortality rates. And states with restricted abortion laws have a 62% higher maternal morality rates. Sure, it isn't likely all Dobbs, but can you claim no effect?

And remember, not only is maternal mortality rate up, but so are complications from home abortion attempts according to OBGYNs that were surveyed. As are complications and the number of sepsis cases since Dobbs. Add it all up, and Dobbs isn't saving lives. It's costing them.

 

No, you've just totally spammed this thread going on and on about stuff you know very little about.

 

Back in 2013, the cost of an abortion was $480. And half of women who aborted feel below the poverty line. And $480 represented about 1/3 of their average monthly income.

This price includes no to limited travel. Add travel and lodging, the cost to have the procedure done out of state only increases. It should shock nobody that there are women who can't afford to travel out of state for an abortion.

There are organizations that are helping women travel for an abortion. But this doesn't help if the woman isn't informed these people will help.

 

No, nor will I try to. But there's a whole lot between "no effect" and the "entire effect."

You have to do the craziest mental gymnastics to believe this.

 

I greatly appreciate your contributions to the discussion. I don't know what this thread would do without you.

 

Mental gymnastics? How about scientific study. States after Dobbs that enacted trigger laws that restricted abortions saw an 7% higher increase in maternal morality rates.

Nothing is conclusive. But plenty of data showing a lot of correlation. If Dobbs isn't at least part of the cause, what else could it be?

 

What could have caused a 136% increase between 1990 and 2014?

All of that was during Roe.

But now we're supposed to go into a panic all of a sudden because of a 7% increase (of an originally small number) which is only partially due to Dobbs? Give me a break.

 

If there are more births in these states it stands to reason there will be higher rates of maternal mortality. For that not to happen would be perplexing.

 

How are raw numbers and rates related?

 

Such concern for human life! It's concerning that Berrien 1990 and 2014 there was an increase. Likely due to health issues such as increase in obesity and drug use. These things effected all states mostly equally.

But now, since Dobbs, states with trigger laws have seen a 7% larger increase in maternal mortality than states without. Meaning more women in restrictive abortion states, on average, are dying than the average in states with less abortion restrictions. And again, this jump corresponds with the passing of Dobbs.

It should be concerning. Why are there more maternal deaths in states with trigger laws? And what can be done to bring Dien the death rate in these states to at least match non restricted states and save the lives of young women if birthing age?

 

It would be shorter, less factually accurate and have a greater concentration of legal errors.

 

Are there more, or are there proportionally more? And why is that the case? Also how many in total? And how many in total are due to lack of access to abortion?

This reminds me of one way of increasing the average income in America. You just kill all the poor people and the average income goes up. Problem solved, right?

 

Now who is doing mental gymnastics? Again, the number of overall abortions hasn't dropped since Dobbs. But what has increased is maternal mortality, with higher jumps in states with trigger laws. And if you look closer at the research, you see that for minorities, the jump in maternal mortality is even greater. Why? Because, unfortunately, there are more people of color who live below the poverty line, and the studies are showing women with means are traveling out of state for a safe and legal abortion. Poor women are stuck making increasingly difficult choices including, but not limited to, attempting "back alley" procedures that lead to negative medical outcomes, including an increase in maternal mortality. The data backs all this up. No gymnastics needed.

I don't have the raw numbers, but these are women, of birthing age, who don't deserve to die if they don't have to. Trying to do the math based on 32 maternal deaths per 100,000 on a national average, a 7% increase would mean an additional 2 deaths per 100,000. Or, in Florida, with about 200,000 to 250,000 births a year, about 5 dead. A small number, yes, but is that any consolation to the dead or their loved ones?

If we're talking nationally, since not all states had trigger laws, we are probably looking at 50 women would be my best guess. But that's 50 more people dead because of Dobbs, and zero babies saved. Because again, Dobbs hasn't lowered the number of abortions in this country. Just made women either travel for a safe and legal one, or seek out less safe alternatives.

 

You're saying we should have state-sanctioned and state-funded killing of unborn children to save the lives of about 5 people per year in a state like Florida (assuming that the entire increase is specifically due to Dobbs, and not due some other external factors as we saw between 1990 and 2014)?

Give me a source that says the 50 more dead is specifically due to Dobbs and a source indicating that no abortions were prevented due to Dobbs.

 

Oops.

 

So let's see, in 2021 (before Dobbs) there were 625,978 abortions reported to the CDC. The real number is probably closer to a million but I'll give you the benefit of the doubt.

CDCs Abortion Surveillance System FAQs | CDC

Almost a quarter of women who would have otherwise had abortions carried their pregnancy to full term according to New York Times Health after Dobbs as evidenced by my tweet above.

That would mean that if that line continued, "almost" 156,494 people (not rounding up) were prevented from having abortions due to Dobbs. But you know what, I'll be extra generous and cut that by 60% because after all, I don't know what "almost" means and perhaps that trend didn't continue. That's 62,597 people who were prevented from having an abortion due to Dobbs.

You would rather save 50 pregnant women per year than between 60,000 and 150,000 fetuses.

It looks like you value fetuses less than Blacks in the South were valued by racist slaveowners. And that's saying something.

 

Sorry, but the numbers don't back the 150,000 people saved. From the link:

SFP’s #WeCount estimates there were 2,200 cumulative more abortions in the year following Dobbs (July 2022 to June 2023) compared to the pre-Dobbs period (April 2022 and May 2022).
​

Please explain how there were 2,000 more abortions a year after Dobbs, yet somehow, 150,000+ were saved? The numbers don't add up.

I value the women who should be able to make their own choices. Especially in cases, no matter how small, who were put into the position against their will and ended up pregnant because of rape. Or women who want to be mothers, but sadly, their pregnancy is medically complicated. These women have done nothing wrong.

 

Simple. The abortion rate went up for some other reason, while other individual people were prevented from having an abortion.

You don't believe me, take it up with the New York Times. Their words were: "The first estimate of births since Dobbs found that almost a quarter of women who would have gotten abortions carried their pregnancies to term."

The rest was just math relying on the assumption that this trend continued and the CDC figures on reported abortions in 2021.

And you don't value fetuses... at all.

Which is the standard rationale justifying abortion.