NCAA football no longer works for “process”coaches

I get the impression that the Florida program has been a day late and a dollar short for over a decade, thinks it found the right guy to fix the problems that plagued the program between 2010 and 2021, but the world has changed and our solution is already outdated. Regardless, the program still needs to fix its old issues before it can find a solution for the future. Instead of having two offensive line coaches, the Gator football team needs two head coaches--one business-oriented coach and one football-oriented coach. If we believe that Napier is a good business-oriented coach then he needs to back out of game day coaching and trust his offensive and defensive coordinators.

The NCAA may have changed but Florida cannot compete in this new environment until it does the following things outside the head coach's purview:

• Modernize the stadium. I am not talking about flashing lights, Wi-Fi, and locker room. Now that the $60M standalone facility is complete, it is time to make the seats ADA-compliant, re-purpose the spaces that have moved to the standalone facility, modernize the concessions concourses, etc. That is a $400M bill being paid by wealthy investors like Gary Condron and Hugh Hathcock with little, if any, input from Napier. That $400M paid by wealthy investors makes it hard to pay Napier's buyout if he gets fired before 2027 ($32M in 2023, $26M in 2024, $19M in 2025, $13M in 2026). The investors are prioritizing the stadium over contract buyouts and salaries for the next coaching staff.
  
• Make NIL relevant. Florida has the 6th-largest fan base at 5.89 million people. How many fans are part of the Gators Victorious collective and at what level? Florida has the 14th-largest alumni base at 413,000 members but membership in the University of Florida Alumni Association is at 55,000 (13%). I find it hard to believe 13% of the 5.89 million Gator fans are donating $100 a year ($76.6M a year) to Gators Victorious, nor do I expect that. I have no idea how much of Gators Victorious includes donations from local businesses for leased sports cars, clothing, and whatever else is counted in the On3 NIL valuation, but other schools have figured it out better than Florida and Gators Victorious needs to make its NIL relevant. The head coach is not allowed to discuss NIL details with recruits so this is out of his purview. The best thing Napier can do is be a staunch advocate of NIL, alumni donations, and booster investments.

Napier needs to figure out what it takes to win games. His offensive scheme is fine, but it takes up too much of his time and energy that could be allocated to the business end of football. Win enough games and maybe the other problems sort themselves out. If NIL is preventing Florida from getting the best players, then Napier needs to win enough games to convince more fans to donate. If the fear of having to fire Napier and pay his buyout is preventing investors from offering more benefits to blue chip recruits and high profile transfers then Napier needs to win more games and earn the confidence of investors. I agree that culture is less important, but interpersonal relationships is part of Napier's personality.

Napier's business approach is still necessary, but not sufficient. I am not sure there is a single coach out there who has mastered being both a business-oriented and football-oriented coach. Napier needs to figure out how to optimize his time and effort to the business end and find the right coordinators to win games.

 

The counter to this is Eli Drinkwitz, who went 5-5, 6-7, 6-7, and 10-2 in years 1-4. Napier's first three years will probably look like this, and if Lagway is the superstar we have been waiting for maybe the Gators win 9 or 10 games in 2025.

It is too early to tell how well Deion Sander's plan from an FCS school like Jackson State translates to Colorado. He will not be pulling 80+ players from the transfer portal every year, so 2023 could be an anomaly. Even then, Colorado went 4-8 with a nearly 100% transfer portal replacement rate.

Mike Norvell is a better coach than I had thought in 2020 when he was hired. Then again, we are talking about the ACC. He went 3-6, 5-7, 10-3, 13-0 in his first four years, which includes a 2023 year with the 54th-ranked strength of schedule and a few backup quarterbacks.

Lane Kiffin is probably the best example of a hot flash coach. Kiffin needs someone like Napier to balance him out.

 

That is a tad harsh, although I get the temperament. He will produce results based on his acumen that was sold to the brain trust or he WILL be released, and likely at the end of 2024. As of now, he is following a plan and we have to wait.

It is what it is.

 

I said this midway through his 1st year- stick to process regardless of result would be his undoing. Stubbornness on some level is what undid Muschamp and this has a lot of that stink on it. He seems like a bright guy so I was hoping he’d adapt

 

Very well though out dissertation. Let me add some insight, at least in theory.

While I (and probably you and others) call it a dissertation, what you really have concocted is a model. Let's, for no other reason than it fits the best, call it a business model. It is a method to determine an outcome in the future based on the model structure. AND it also is dependent on the inputs. Some will snarkily say "garbage in - garbage out" but I will just take a more level-headed approach and use the old vernacular "your business is perfectly designed around the results you are receiving." Or in other words, if you want different outcomes, you HAVE to use different inputs. That is all there is, unless your model has serious structural flaws. I will just say that I do not see any of those in your dissertation.

So, what do I add? Here we go, and in no way is it an insider view, merely taking what I see all around and make a picture out of a bunch of puzzle pieces. First of all, my pat answer has been and will continue to be that college football IS the Blob that WILL eat a university if allowed. I truly believe, based on what I have witnessed over the many years, is that UF and its brain trust implicitly know this. We have been elite in academics, general sports, AND football (with some nice things in basketball under Donovan). That is truly a unicorn. But now, the Blob has become a new and much more sophisticated monster. And make no mistake, it IS eating up universities and their football supporters. And what you can end up ultimately is being bankrupt, both financially as well as morally.

So, back to your business model. What you want is basically a bunch of financial folks to write much bigger checks because...everyone else is. Okay, now about the old saying from mothers to sons about jumping off a cliff...

Question, what makes you think that is what they are prepared to do? What makes you think that everyone sees the short-term losses as long-term disaster to what is THEIR priorities? What if "Middling Plus" is good enough in the short-term until the dust settles in the Wild Wild West and the bodies have piled high? Another question, in the somewhat distant past, T. Boone Pickens wrote a promissory note to Oklahoma State in a HUGH amount with the express demand that it go to sports (football especially). What is the return on his investment? He didn't write a check big enough? That appears to be your model's best answer.

Yes, we all hate our results since Meyer left. But, I also hate what NIL and "get-out-of-jail free" cards have done to the sport. And it does not look like sanity will come back anytime soon. And I suspect (I can not prove it) that when it is over, major college football WILL be an organized minor league for the NFL. AND the players will get paid, they will get cut, they will become unionized, and the fans in the stands will know this and boo loudly because THEIR investments are not being returned like they think it should.

Sounds fun, doesn't it?

 

Disagree with your characterization of Saban as a “process” coach if that’s your definition. He showed performance improvements in his first year at Alabama, significant improvements in the second year, and won the championship in his third. Not that he did not have a process, but that is as hot of a hand as a coach is ever likely to get.

Disagree with your characterization of Saban as a “process” coach if that’s your definition. He showed performance improvements in his first year at Alabama, significant improvements in the second year, and won the championship in his third. Not that he did not have a process, but that is as hot of a hand as a coach is ever likely to get.

 

Process needs to adjust to current environment. “Process” is just another word for a strategy. Everyone should have one. Yours might not work.

 

Update on 2023 results: 13-1

 

I think Napier learned a lot about organization “processes”
under Saban. It’s all Saban’s fault…..

 

There’s an old metaphor in the military about Napoleon’s mule. Just because you were in proximity to the Man, doesn’t mean you learned everything that you could from him. Take Napoleon’s mule, for instance. He went with Napoleon on 12 campaigns and was not any closer to being a general for the experience.

 

Our offense was NOT the problem this past season. Our defense was historically bad. Like really, really, really, bad In my 50 years of following the gators, I have never seen a more inept defense. Had they been even mediocre, we would have won three more games.

It baffles me that people can have watched what I watched this past season, and conclude that the offense was the problem.

 

There were several problems with the team this year, and most people were not oblivious to the problems on defense. I think some of us were focused on the problems with playcalling and special teams just because they were the most obvious where coaching itself seemed like the biggest obstacle to effectiveness. On defense, I saw a lot where bringing in new talent and growing experience would solve the issues over time.

 

How often do farm animals become generals?

 

I think you can be process oriented, but your definitions of success have to change. A guy like Ferentz at Iowa is successful -- wins 9 or 10 games most years, has won his divisions a few times, usually ends up in a decent bowl. With the new playoffs they'd probably make it half the time.

He doesn't focus on high-end recruits. He brings in guys who fit his system and guys who aren't expecting immediate playing time or recognition. And because of that, he's not in crisis over kids leaving because they don't get enough PT or mentions. He can't get many skill players because of that, but it's okay. And they have a lot of successful seasons.

But they aren't winning a title, and since the Big 10 has gone away from divisions, probably won't play in many Big 10 title games either. Fans maybe disappointed, but they know what to expect. And every now and then, they might get a bit more interesting.

And if that's what we were doing, I'd understand it. Might be disappointing, but we'd know what we are. We wouldn't be wasting our time with NIL money or rankings -- we'd have our kind of kid and our kind of pipeline and we'd just acquiesce the championships to someone else. Our kids would stay long enough for us to know who they are and watch their careers -- we'd feel good watching our seniors play, or seeing some flash of brilliance in a sophomore. And every now and then we'd have a special year that would mean a lot.

But that's not what we're gonna do. We're going to try to be in the upper echelon. And to do that, you have to scheme right and you have to recruit right and you have to coach right. It can't be about a process because a process gets in the way of bringing in the young stars you need to excel. So you have to be flashy and explosive and trendy. A process doesn't get you that.

 

I believe you have stumbled upon the point.

 

Sweet

 

i think he was the greatest military tactician of any mule in history. but that's just my take.

 

Process is fine. But to be a process coach you have to

1.) Hold onto the good players you have
2.) Win the games that are there to be won

And this is where Napier has struggled.

 

To elaborate, that business model is customized for a Florida program that has neglected to modernize the stadium and make NIL relevant. Every SEC program that modernized their stadiums and got ahead of NIL is ahead of Florida without having to play a down of football.

With Florida’s large endowment (insert joke here), large fan base, and large alumni base, it has the resources to put forth a business model that is differentiated from the rest of the SEC and the P5 blue-bloods. Why would a blue chip player come to Florida when they can get the same or more NIL treatment at 5-10 other schools? Why would a coach want to come to Florida knowing they will get fired in 4 years, or that the perception will be they will be fired in 4 years? What is unique to Florida that makes the best coaches and best athletes want to come to Gainesville?

Napier is allegedly a good businessman (avoiding the term “process” here). He is probably not an elite offensive coordinator, so he should focus all his energy on what he is good at and apply it to his business model. His business model needs to establish a unique identity at Florida that attracts and retains the best talent—and it has to be good enough of a model to execute with a losing record until he figures out how to out-coach the scouting report.

 

You’re only skimming the surface with your analysis.

Our offense in general was not a problem. Our play calls at certain times were. Billy doesn’t know how to seize and maximize momentum. He is either too conservative or wrecklessly agressive at crucial times.

Redzone playcalling against Arkansas killed momentum.

First half wreckless playcalling against F$U killed momentum.

Plus Billu focused on playcalling takes his attention away from special teams, game tempo and flow, use of timeouts, unit preparedness coming out of timeouts, etc.

The man is in over his head trying to do both.