She doesn't have to get it all. Here is the NH polling. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...ire_republican_presidential_primary-7396.html just her and Christie's vote (and yes he is basically running on being the anti Trump guy) combined gets her within 15. And that’s before the money and support the pour in. Remember Trump didn't even win Iowa in 2016 (Cruz did), so it’s not impossible he underperforms there and could lose some momentum coming into NH. Again, I’m not here claiming it’s definitely going to happen or Trump is in big trouble, he is the front runner for sure. He could come out over 60 percent in both states and be just fine. But it’s not an impossible path. And if she loses respectably, his air of invincibility may waiver some. SC is right behind those two and it’s her home state. Just saying it will be interesting to watch. it’s kind of genius from the Koch’s actually, if she flounders in those three early states they will cut her loose. So it’s basically a 60 day funding for them, with big upside and (by their standards) not much downside. It’s two relatively cheap states to operate in. It also sends a message to whomever wins on what they want out of the nominee.
This all ignores the fact that most republicans are either Trump supporters or Trump adjacent. Haley is to normal for them. Sure they will vote for her over Biden, but they will take Trump over Haley any day of the week. The only way Haley wins is somehow she guarantees she will pardon Trump and Trump backs out. Not a likely scenario.
She has no path to win, unless Trump drops out… Koch endorsement shows donor class still prefers Trump to populist alternative
While I may not agree with you on many points, this one resonates with me. You’re on to something here.
The opening of the primaries really does nothing other than eliminate the total non-performers. Heck, a candidate usually throws the hat in the ring after the first few primaries. I don’t think Iowa will tell us too much, standing alone. It’s a long process.
NEW YORK — JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon urged Democrats to support Nikki Haley in the GOP presidential primary, arguing that she offers a strong alternative to former President Donald Trump. “If you’re a very liberal Democrat, I urge you to help Nikki Haley, too. Give them a choice on the Republican side that might be better than Trump,” Dimon, who leads the country’s largest commercial bank, said onstage at the 2023 DealBook Summit on Wednesday. LOL
I’ll be doing just the opposite. Registering for GOP tomorrow so I can vote for Donald here in North Carolina in the Primary and then Biden in the General!
On one hand, Trump is probably the best chance for Biden to win the general, so I get Democrats preferring that matchup. On the other hand, if Trump were to somehow lose the primary, there's almost no chance he would concede defeat or help the winner. I think he'd try to burn the party to the ground, and who knows if a significant number of the most ardent MAGA supporters might sit out the general or write Trump's name in. I wonder if there are Republicans who will vote for Trump in the primary mainly to avoid that scenario.
