War in Ukraine

You are partially correct. In the strict sense of the term, a war of attrition will not work; Ukraine cannot simply match Russia man for man and hope to bleed them white before Ukraine itself bleeds out. But I argue that is not exactly what Ukraine is trying to do. Everything I see suggests Ukraine is using a strategy of erosion (versus annihilation), meaning in the absence of a realistic possibility to completely destroy Russia’s war-making ability, they are playing a longer game to erode Russia’s will. One of, but not the only, the key measures of performance for such a strategy is enemy casualties, but again that does not mean you compare one side’s against the other’s to determine who is winning. Some of the characteristics of Ukraine’s operational design that suggest this strategy are its refusal to give battle or become decisively engaged except under favorable conditions, luring the enemy into unfavorable conditions and punishing them disproportionately with supporting arms, targeting the enemy’s rear areas without subsequent maneuver, and so on. Is it working? Time will tell. But some of the indicators that it might be are Russia’s perpetual understatement of its casualties, Putin’s softening stance even without the military victories he desperately needs to sell this thing as negotiating from a position of strength, and Putin’s fear of what another round of mobilization might mean domestically. If more troops would really push this thing over the top and bring in the big win, then why not do it immediately? Unless and until Russia actually starts winning in the field and taking significant ground (and not just keep talking about it, like it’s right around the corner), there is no reason to not keep enabling Ukraine’s strategy.

 

It’s such a brilliant strategy the Pentagon drafted up for the Ukrainians, isn’t it? Play the long game with the country who invented the long game in the 20th century. What was the off-ramp if there should be a change in CiC? I bet Russia pushes hard into Odesa over the next few months and retakes Kherson. They know Trump will end the war and want as much strategic land as possible before that happens. Relying on Biden’s DoD to create a comprehensive strategy in Ukraine was your first mistake.

 

You think Russia can cross the river to get to Kherson? I don’t post much anymore but unless Ukraine runs out of artillery ammunition and drones I don’t see how Russia is crossing that river. They can’t even stop Ukraine from crossing.

 

Doom …

The situation is far worse than Zaluzhny lets on. Reports of aging recruits are more frequent these days (the average age of new recruits is older than 40 years). Training of Ukrainians is rarely done in Ukraine. Instead, conscripts are shipped to places like the UK, Australia and New Zealand. This may be because training facilities in their home country are not safe from Russian missile strikes, but a more likely explanation is that Ukraine is running low on experienced soldiers to train new fighters.

Gloom Falls Over Ukraine As Recruitment Dwindles And Israeli War Steals Spotlight | ZeroHedge

 

Nobody does propaganda like the West …

 

You proceed from a false assumption that we created Ukraine’s strategy. Ukraine has done lots of things we have advised them not to, and in some cases we were wrong, and they were right. Ukraine is conducting its own strategy against Russia, and I would change some elements if I could, but on the whole I cannot argue with the results. Short of bringing in foreign intervention, I think they are optimizing their chances of defeating Russia with what they have.

But your false assumption should not surprise anyone here. Look at all of the other assumptions you make without evidence. First, you (still) act as if Russia has the ability to go back on the offensive and capture Odesa. If they could, they would, so why haven’t they?

Second, you assume that Russia can hold on domestically until late January 2025. Again, if Russia is not struggling with its own population, then why lie about its casualties? It’s not for our benefit. We have a better sense of how many Russians have fallen in this war than the Russian population does, but even them you cannot fool forever. Why not do the next round of conscription that Russia incessantly threatens but never does? I mean, the Russian people are totally behind this conquest, right?

Third, you casually assume that Trump can win this election. I think that’s laughable and hardly worth addressing. Middle America will never put that man back in the White House. The best Trump can pull off is spoiling the chances of a legitimate contender, either by somehow winning the nomination or running as a third party.

But, fourth, given that a Republican does win (say, someone plausible like Haley), you assume that said Republican would just end support for Ukraine 14 months from now. Even if that was part of their campaign, it’s easy to say what you will do before you’ve received actual intelligence briefs and your guiding coalition of national security experts has advised you what might happen if you carried out your dumbass plan.

But you know what they say about assuming …

Oh, and I got a real kick out of your suggestion that the country that experienced two regime changes in the 20th Century as “inventing the long game.” Gold, Jerry.

 

“defeating Russia”

and other assorted fairy tales

 

2024 is the year to depose Putin and destroy Russia. We just know it!

 

This thread continues to be:

Consensus: it's a lopsided blow out!

Who's winning?

UkRuskrainia.

 

We report. You decide.

Of interest: both sides are citing Western sources.

 

Definitions do matter.

 

Moscow has experienced its first attack on a power station. Probably won't be the last.

Moscow power station on fire after overnight drone attack in occupied Crimea and mainland Russia (yahoo.com)

 

Looks like Putin has little hope of defeating Ukraine in the near future, but he seems to think that he will be able to hold on to Crimea for several years. Putin has been in discussions with China to connect Russia with Crimea by underwater tunnel, which is expected to be immune to Ukrainian attack. The project will take years to undertake, and would be totally unnecessary if Russia were able to defeat Ukraine in the near future. It would also be very vulnerable to a vehicle rigged with explosives.

Russia and China planning underwater tunnel link to Crimea (yahoo.com)

 

If Russia commits itself to an offensive, yes they can and will, as we have seen in Bakhmut and now Avdiivka.

 

The bottom line is you are not changing the majority of hearts and minds inside of Russia and Trump has a huge lead in the GOP field and a widening advantage over Biden in the general polls. If we’re playing the odds, Trump is the next CiC and he will end the war in pretty swift fashion (“24 hours”). Could the polls change? Sure, but the biggest albatross for Biden is his apparent lack of coherency. That isn’t going to get better in the next year. But even if Biden wins, you’re not going to change the public sentiment in Russia. In their eyes, Ukraine is a part of Russia and Russia is winning as they’ve held all of the predominately Russian speaking regions.

 

Update on Operation Take Crimea …

On the 17th November, the Ukrainians launched another attack on Crime attempting to land in a boat similar to the above. But this boat, its crew and 7 unmanned boats were all destroyed by Russian defences, including Mig-31 fighters. On the 22nd November, three drones were destroyed above Crimea and four unmanned boats headed for Crimea were destroyed in the Black Sea. On the 23rd, 13 drones were destroyed over Crimea, according to the Military Chronicle. Other reports suggest that dozens of drones were shot down down over Kherson Oblast and Crimea. In addition, an intrepid bunch of GUR skiers was intercepted on the Black Sea but I don’t know what became of them.

Ukraine Weekly Update

 

This is a meat grinder for Russia. While their economy is resilient to Western sanctions their military infrastructure continues to be eroded.

I doubt Putin will ever quit though unless unforseen circumstances dictate it.

No matter what our resident Russian apologist claims, considering what I believe the leadership anticipated, which was a 6 week sacking of Kiev, followed by a few months of Ukrainian "political re-indoctrination" the calculus suggests a gigantic miscalculation.

I appreciate uftaipans post and only hope that NATO, and of course the US, continues its political and resource allocation resolve toward supporting continued Ukrainian opposition to totalitarian aggression.

 

Just because the Russian people aren't lined up in soup lines doesn't mean western sanctions haven't inflicted serious damage to the Russian economy.
https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/infographics/impact-sanctions-russian-economy/