MBB Pre-Game Discussion: FLORIDA vs. #13 Baylor

Looking forward to a fun Friday evening. I hope we come out as confident and aggressive as we did against fsu. Should be a good Thanksgiving day for the team today in NYC.

 

Handlogten makes a difference. Pitt was the first team to outrebound us.

 

Our next opponent is going to be a bear.


Figuratively speaking. Or is it mascot speaking?

 

I think if he can be a rim protector and rebounder, his ankle should not give him fits. If nothing, we need his 5 fouls.

 

Me too. Thanks to @gatorz2009 for pointing to Torvik site for analytics. It has us one slot ahead of Baylor. (Insert obligatory "too early for stats data" disclaimer.)

 

Let’s have a huge weekend Gators! Basketball takes down #13 Baylor, and football upsets the undefeated noles to start the next phase of winning Gator football!

 

Baylor is 5-0. They beat Auburn 88-82, John Brown (!) 96-70, Gardner-Webb 77-62, Kansas City 99-61 and Oregon St. 88-72. They're shooting 51% from the field, 31.4% hitting 3's, 72.5% on free throws. They have a +10 rebound margin over their opponents, and are averaging 14.8 assists to 19 turnovers per game. They only have 7 guys averaging more than 9 minutes a game. Their leading scorer is 5-star freshman guard JaKobe Walter, at 19.2 ppg, a 42% 3-point shooter who is 91% on free throws. Their #2 scorer is junior guard Jayden Nunn at 13.2 ppg, then senior guard RayJ Dennis at 11.8 ppg. The only other guy who has started all 5 games is 6'9" senior forward, averaging 9 ppg. They have a 7'0" center, Ives Missi, averaging 9 ppg and 7 rebounds and nearly 3 block per game. We are a bigger team, as they are guard oriented and we will be their biggest test to date, IMO.

 

I'm so glad to see a Gator basketball team trying to win as a team and playing for each other. It's been a few years since we have seen that throughout a season. We've had a few teams play that way for a few games but then injuries happen or one player's NBA stock starts to rise, and then we fall back into what the stats are saying about me, instead of how many games can we win. Then the season ends and half of the team goes its separate ways.

I've grown to expect teams that form through the portal struggle to find the team chemistry that all good college teams need to be successful. I'm still holding some reservation just how good this team can be until after the Baylor game but I like the direction we are heading. It will be interesting to see if we can still compete against a team in Baylor that looks more talented than us or do we outplay them with our team approach when we play on a neutral court..

 

I'm enjoying the ride and hope to see a win tomorrow but it's possible this team might need a few games with Pullin starting and Kugel finding his spots to reach the next level. It appears we have a lot of guys with high ceilings that a great point guard can help them reach.

 

this has been a different group with the insertion of Pullin. Walt did a decent job running point the first few games but he looks a lot more comfortable playing off the ball - ZP is a more natural playmaker and allows Clayton to focus on scoring instead of worrying about running offense, and we're better off overall for that.

the depth of this team is outstanding and will wear a lot of opponents down with the pace TG wants them playing at - a talented shooter like Rishwain who'd at least be in the rotation for most schools can't even get off the bench for us the last couple games.

I think we can get past Baylor without Handlogten if our freshmen bigs don't get in foul trouble, but we're gonna need a better game from Kugel - I want to see him attacking the rim more early (when it's there) and maybe he can get to the line and get his shooting going that way.

 

Agree, ESPN has Baylor as 58.4% favorites

 

I think we match up well with Butler, even without Handlogten. Will be a good challenge us either way

 

I know KenPom numbers are a bit screwy early in the year, but they have Baylor a 5 point favorite on a neutral court

 

The Vegas odds, which I believe to be a better predictor than any single algorithm, has Baylor favored by 3 or 3.5.

Florida vs Baylor Odds, Betting Trends, and Line Movements - 11/24/2023

That’s a close game, especially with our center in doubt.

Baylor is a very good offensive team (KenPom offensive efficiency #5). In fact, I saw a few of their fans looking right past us to a future matchup against Duke, where they predicted Duke wouldn’t be able to keep up with Baylor’s firepower. I think we can do it, but it’s going to take a real effort to stay with them.

 

Draft Kings Sports Book has Baylor favored by 3 as does Vegas Insider. masseyratings.com a pure computer like Sagarin or Kenpom has #6 Baylor favored over #40 Florida by 76-71 with Baylor having a 67% chance to win.

 

I use the score app and it has a pretty good stat comparison that I usually look at. Interesting for Baylor. Looks like slight edge for Baylor.

https://imgur.com/gallery/cacJWMc

 

We've played a tougher schedule, plus we have the depth advantage in the frontcourt. We have to hit a higher percentage of our free throws or we'll lose some close games because of it at some point. We took Pitt out of their offensive flow with our defensive pressure and, hopefully, we can do the same with Baylor. The refs allowed the teams to play more physical and didn't call a lot of fouls in the Pitt game and I think that worked to our advantage. You never know how the game will be called and if they call it tight, our guys will have to adjust to stay out of foul trouble. Really good early test for both teams, but I like our chances.