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Myanmar Civil War

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by G8trGr8t, Nov 9, 2023.

  1. G8trGr8t

    G8trGr8t Premium Member

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    Myanmar rebels take control of districts along Chinese border. The whole thing is a mess with warlords working together to overcome the military and then what?

    A turning point in Myanmar as army suffers big losses - BBC News

    Three ethnic insurgent armies in Shan State, supported by other armed groups opposing the government, have overrun dozens of military posts, and captured border crossings and the roads carrying most of the overland trade with China.

    It is the most serious setback suffered by the junta since it seized power in February 2021. After two-and-half years of battling the armed uprising it provoked with its disastrous coup, the military is looking weak, and possibly beatable.

    The government has responded with airstrikes and artillery bombardments, forcing thousands of people to leave their homes. But it has been unable to bring in reinforcements or recover the ground it has lost. Among hundreds of troops killed is believed to be the commander of government forces in northern Shan State, Brigadier General Aung Kyaw Lwin, the most senior officer killed in combat since the coup.

    What makes this attack even more significant is that it marks the first time that the well-armed insurgents operating in Shan State have explicitly aligned themselves and their military operations with the wider campaign to overthrow the junta and restore democratic rule.
     
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  2. tampagtr

    tampagtr VIP Member

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    Here’s a piece this morning from WaPo. Bit confusing as they say that the main “rebel” group of many, the Three Brotherhood Alliance, has ties to China, but that the border and trade crossings with China have been disrupted and that China is urging the Myanmar government to take control.

    Either way, the seems to be a much stronger challenge to the ruling junta.

     
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  3. G8trGr8t

    G8trGr8t Premium Member

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    the whole background of the warlords and their gangs running "scam centers" with enslaved chinese labor while pumping out meth in the jungles has an apocalypse now feel to it all. I suspect that the Chinese prosper from these warlords but prefer dealing with the junta on a diplomatic level
     
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  4. tampagtr

    tampagtr VIP Member

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    That makes sense. Haven't seen a solid explainer
     
  5. mrhansduck

    mrhansduck GC Hall of Fame

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    Have to look up Myanmar every few years when I see something about it. Can't get it through my thick skull that it used to be called Burma. Not that I know much about Burma either of course. (Similar with Mumbai f/k/a Bombay).
     
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  6. G8trGr8t

    G8trGr8t Premium Member

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  7. G8trGr8t

    G8trGr8t Premium Member

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    another major blow to the junta with the largest military base in the area surrendered. the fact that the rebels are releasing those who surrendered to leave the area says something good, maybe naive, about them. still don't understand the whole dynamics and how China is playing this game but know the junta is bad

    Soldiers Surrender, Bases Fall and a Powerful Army No Longer Seems Invincible (msn.com)

    The late-November surrender to a rebel group is a window into the biggest challenge Myanmar’s powerful military has faced not just since its coup in 2021 but in decades. The enemies of the junta are making unprecedented gains, leading some experts to wonder whether the rebels might sustain pressure enough to at least bring the generals to the negotiating table.

    A trio of rebel groups, called the Three Brotherhood Alliance, says that it has taken over more than 200 military outposts and bases, at least six towns near the border with China and stockpiles of weapons since launching an offensive on Oct. 27.
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    Those who had surrendered didn’t want to be named. They said they weren’t being held captive and were making arrangements to relocate. The rebel group, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, says those who surrender are free to go and won’t be harmed or punished.

    Opponents of the regime say the success of what the rebels call “Operation 1027,” named after the date of the offensive’s launch, shows that the junta is at risk of collapse. Conflict analysts are more circumspect, saying the Myanmar military is weaker than at any point since the coup, but there are few signs it might capitulate.
     
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  8. G8trGr8t

    G8trGr8t Premium Member

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    Myanmar confirms a key northeastern city on border with China has been seized by an ethnic alliance (msn.com)

    Myanmar’s military government has acknowledged that it withdrew its forces from a key city on the northeastern border with China after it was taken over by an alliance of ethnic armed groups it has been battling for months.

    The fall of Laukkaing late Thursday is the biggest in a series of defeats suffered by Myanmar’s military government since the ethnic alliance launched an offensive Oct. 27. It underlines the pressure the government is under as it battles pro-democracy guerrillas in the wake of a 2021 military takeover as well as ethnic minority armed groups across the country.
     
  9. G8trGr8t

    G8trGr8t Premium Member

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    update as the war rages on

    Far from Ukraine and Gaza, Another War Just Killed 50,000 People (msn.com)

    The project told Newsweek it estimates a death toll of at least 47,000 in violence in Myanmar since then, including at least 8,000 civilians, but says that figure is conservative and that the total death toll could well be another 12,000 higher, including a further 2,000 civilian deaths. "The number of attacks by the military over the years has been massive, but there has been kind of an increase with the rebels taking over more and more territory at the end of the year," Andrea Carboni, ACLED's head of analysis, said in an interview.
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    Fighting in Myanmar intensified late last year as an alliance of insurgent groups made major gains against the forces of junta leader Min Aung Hlaing, who is under Western sanctions and gets weapons principally from Russia and China. The United Nations says some 2.3 million people have been displaced by the war.
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    "Myanmar's people are exhausted and no longer looking externally for a solution to their immediate problem. They have rallied and pushed on with their resistance campaign from inside the country. This is the only reason why we are even able to say that there is still hope, and they are the reason for what appears a possible breakthrough recently in weakening the military's grip in some parts of the country," the Human Rights Watch nonprofit's Myanmar researcher Manny Maung told Newsweek.

    "Myanmar's economy is in a shambles and the military is continuing to commit human rights abuses that include mass killings, arbitrary detention, crimes against humanity and war crimes. Rather than feeling the pressure from the international community to stop its abuses, the military junta appears emboldened to commit ongoing human rights violations," Maung said.
     
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  10. G8trGr8t

    G8trGr8t Premium Member

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    Three Years After Coup, Myanmar's Junta Losing Ground but Holding On (voanews.com)

    Since the start of the offensive on October 27, opposition forces have seized several towns in northeast Myanmar's Shan state next to China, taken control of key roads to the border, and forced hundreds of junta soldiers to surrender.

    The military has responded with punishing air and artillery strikes but so far failed to retake lost ground. That has emboldened other rebel groups across Myanmar to pounce, compounding the junta's losses.

    "Across many different parts of the country, ethnic armed groups and resistance forces have gone on the offensive since the 27th of October," Horsey said. "It's people looking at the situation and saying, 'Wow, the Myanmar military has an awful lot on its hands right now and it's looking incredibly weak,' so it's giving confidence to these groups to go on the attack."