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Mortgage rates update; Predict next year’s rate

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by citygator, Nov 8, 2023.

`What will 30 year fixed rate be election night 2024?

  1. Below 3%

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. 3-4%

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  3. 4-5%

    2 vote(s)
    10.0%
  4. 5-6%

    8 vote(s)
    40.0%
  5. 6-7%

    7 vote(s)
    35.0%
  6. Over 7%

    3 vote(s)
    15.0%
  7. Way way way over 7%

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  1. citygator

    citygator VIP Member

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    Im not sure “plunge” is perfectly descriptive for a 25 basis point change but it may indicate the peak of mortgage rates. That will be good for home prices if you own one as supply is still very tight (see housing supply at 2019 levels even with high rates). Most mortgages are still owned below 4%. Purchases rose over last week but are still well below LY.

    Mortgage rates plunge and demand finally inches back
    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/08/mor...are|com.apple.UIKit.activity.CopyToPasteboard

    Mortgage rates saw the biggest one-week drop in over a year last week, causing the first increase in mortgage demand in a month.

    Total mortgage application volume rose 2.5% last week, compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index.


    The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($726,200 or less) decreased to 7.61% from 7.86%, with points falling to 0.69 from 0.73 (including the origination fee) for loans with a 20% down payment.

    “Last week’s decrease in rates was driven by the U.S. Treasury’s issuance update, the Fed striking a dovish tone in the November FOMC statement, and data indicating a slower job market,” said Joel Kan, vice president and deputy chief economist at the MBA.



    Housing Inventory still below pre-covid levels

    Housing Inventory: Median Days on Market in the United States
     
  2. exiledgator

    exiledgator Gruntled

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    Sounds like I'm running out of threads to brag about my low rate mortgage.
     
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  3. VAg8r1

    VAg8r1 GC Hall of Fame

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    You mean like the 2.25% fixed rate on my 15-year mortgage?
     
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  4. citygator

    citygator VIP Member

    13,588
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  5. docspor

    docspor GC Hall of Fame

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    ohhh, I sure hope so. Closed on a rental 10/24 @ 8.1%.....day our rental ad went live, we had tenents in that night. Almost a pos cash flow at 8.1 (not that that really matters). Was actually kinda hoping to keep the riff raff away a while longer with "scary" rates, but I don't think my wife wants another property anyway.
     
  6. GCNumber7

    GCNumber7 VIP Member

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    Where are you finding cash flow rentals these days?
     
  7. docspor

    docspor GC Hall of Fame

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    what?
     
  8. G8trGr8t

    G8trGr8t Premium Member

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    where is your rental that will support those rates?
     
  9. docspor

    docspor GC Hall of Fame

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    what? wanna elaborate?
     
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  10. gator_lawyer

    gator_lawyer VIP Member

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    Mine is at 2.375%. :(
     
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  11. thomadm

    thomadm VIP Member

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    Probably around 6.5-7% this time next year unless housing prices drastically change.