Democrats are beginning to throw in the towel on Biden. It’s not looking well for him. Do you all think there is a real chance Biden steps away to let a Gavin Newsom run or Kamala Harris? https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/us/general-election-trump-vs-biden-7383.html
Both Harris and Newsome would be terrible failures as Presidents. What is Newsome going to campaign on? He’ll make the rest of the US just like California? Thanks, but no thanks.
I’d think if his campaign is smart they’d stay away from that type of message. “Make America Florida” didn’t go over very well.
In theory he should step aside. It does beg the question as to who in the party is ready to step up and lead the party and run a successful bid for the white house against a gop nominee who will very likely be Trump.
This weekend’s NYT Poll by state: Cross-Tabs: October 2023 Times/Siena Poll of the 2024 Battlegrounds
While I think that Biden shouldn't run for reelection in 2024, before writing off Old Joe keep in mind these articles from November and December of 2011 based on an analysis of various polls. Is Obama Toast? Handicapping the 2012 Election (Published 2011) https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/1107_obama_galston.pdf Swing states less friendly to Obama in 2012 Obama also runs slightly behind his most likely Republican contenders in hypothetical 2012 match-ups. Among registered voters in swing states, Gallup shows Obama winning 45 percent to Newt Gingrich’s 48 percent (within the poll’s margin of error), and Obama trails Romney 43 to 48 percent. In 2008, Obama beat John McCain by 53 to 46 percent among voters in these key states.Poll: Gingrich Strongest Republican Candidate to Defeat Obama | The American Presidency Project Mitt Romney is on a roll: A new poll puts him ahead of President Obama in one-on-one matchup – New York Daily News ttps://www.bostonglobe.com/2011/12/15/more-young-people-predict-obama-will-lose-election/YklafMLjoA30PNpFfbpSsL/story.html Poll shows Obama re-election bid threatened For the first time, the poll found that a majority of adults, 52 per cent, said Obama should be voted out of office while 43 per cent said he deserves another term. Obama's overall job approval stands at a new low, with 44 per cent approving and 54 per cent disapproving.
Are we talking about him not running again or asking whether or not we think he will just step away and get lost due to his declining mental capacity?
Should Biden step away to avoid losing to something like Donald Trump? It's a legitimate question, and the fact that Trump could win is a damning indictment of this country. The state of this union has to boggle any sensible mind.
My apologies, I could have been more clear. I’m talking about not seeking re-election. He finishes his current term and lets the DNC figure out the plan. (Although I think he would leverage his office to strongly suggest it should be Harris)
There is certainly no guarantee Biden’s substitute in the election would fare better. In fact, if it’s Harris, I could see her doing worse than Joe would. It is a sinking ship though. How does an incumbent with an unemployment rate under 4% trail a guy who has 91 felony counts pending? Boggles the mind, indeed…
I previously posted links to articles on polls from November and December 2011 regarding the 2012 presidential election indicating that Obama would. Following is a link to an article on the 1988 election concerning a poll taken much closer to that years election (in July) approximately three months before the 1988 presidential election. Dukakis Lead Widens, According to New Poll (Published 1988) FYI:George H.W. Bush beat Michael Dukakis by a close to eight percentage point margin. The obvious point being that polls taken a year before a presidential election aren't that meaningful and they may be even less meaningful considering that it's only the second time in American history in which a defeated incumbent ran again for the office against the candidate who defeated him.
Half the board worries about Trump all of the time. If I'm following your logic, then that means well over half of this board secretly believes Trump is a great choice.
It's not going to be Kamala. She couldn't win if it was 100% mail-in votes. I don't think it's Newsome, because the Obama crew may not be able to control him. It has to be Big Mike even though I think she is disliked as much as Hillary.