Netanyahu tells Israel ‘We are at war’ after Hamas launches an unprecedented attack, killing at leas

They can't keep bombing refugee camps or telling refugees to move to the southern strip and then turn around and bomb that area. They will soon be left with the US being it's only ally

 

Previously posted, this quote from the late Golda Meir says it all.

 

How specifically do you propose they target Hamas without incurring civilian casualties?

As noted above, what Israel is having to do is effectively the equivalent of having to fight a war in Queens, or in Philadelphia with 1.5x as many residents.

How does one bomb someone in Queens or Philly without causing civilian harm? Obviously Hamas is not going to comply with “please kindly go stand in a field or park so that we can safely kill you.”

 

I just posted a fake cover from the NYT. I deleted

 

I don’t think those are real headlines. Read the caption on the photo.

here is what the times looked like on that day in 1943:

Front Page 1 -- No Title (Published 1943)

 

Yep. I just realized that and am going to delete it

 

All fair points, and your comparison with Philadelphia is consistent with what I've read.

Not sure what a fair comparison may have been in our war on terror (if there were places even remotely comparable in terms of the population density of Gaza). There were certainly some places in Iraq where there was more urban bombing and fighting than there would have been in more remote parts of Afghanistan, for example. America obviously had ethical and strategic debates about civilian losses similar to what Israel is facing now. There are obviously differences, too, to include that Israel is surrounded by its enemies in close proximity and America was not. No easy answers either way.

 

Israel has teams of special ops that they can use and we assist them with providing intel. The majority of the population are kids. The chances of a retaliatory attack 20 years from now increases with every civilian death

 

Some random thoughts from tons of reading. Not going to search for links I didn’t save. You will have to believe I am recalling what I have read over the last few days correctly. If not, disregard.


Hassan Nasrallah (Hezbollah) and some of Iranian leadership have set this Friday, November 3 as the day they will ramp up attacks on Israel and US interests unless the Gaza invasion is stopped. They had been active so far but nowhere near the volume they can if they want to. So far it has been "proportional", plainly sending a signal that they don't want to get fully engaged with the US or Israel, just to send a limited message/marker.


And they likely still don't want active broad conflict with US and/or Israel. Even if nothing happens, there is still a very good chance they will do nothing, for reasons I set forth earlier in the thread. Though I worry about the damage they can do, obviously they can be pretty well destroyed in combat with the US or Israel. That doesn't mean they can't do damage in their own right. War is always uncertain. Swarm and Drone technology and tactics have raised new uncertainty in military balances, along with cyber capabilities. October 7 and the Ukraine war are evidence. I know we are more advanced, but history tells you never to assume you know the other side’s full capabilities until engaged. But still, we would likely come out way ahead militarily, if not a route. But there may be losses inflicted by the other side. We should not presume that's impossible.


But the military engagement is only one part of the calculation. There's plainly been a lot of negotiations behind the scenes, which we see some evidence of in limited hostage releases, supplies getting into Gaza, letting foreign passport holders leave Gaza, praise for Qatar from Israeli leaders. And so far Israel has not fully invaded on the ground. There was some suggestion that they would not try to go all the way in, but try to establish a position they could negotiate from. It's hard to tell what's happened so far. There's been a solid black out of open source news. But the two sides have far more knowledge of the capabilities displayed so far of their weapon systems, etc. And it's hard to know whether either side has held back anything.


But back to the political rather than military because that's what's really most important. The deadline may have been set because they had knowledge of significant negotiations that could lead to a semi-acceptable result. Any ideas to the parameters of unlimited political resolution is speculation. But there do appear to be signs that Iran would give some part of Hamas up to avoid a full confrontation. Again, exactly what that looks like is hard to imagine, especially in a way that would be acceptable to all sides. But there’s certainly suggestions it's being discussed. That may be why they set a so-called “deadline”, thinking it will just push forward negotiations, SOP. Again, speculation.


A lot will change if wider regional war breaks out. So many moving parts. At the 100,000 foot level, a lot of what could loosely be called the Third World may pull away from the US in whole or in part, which Russia and China would both love. This administration has repaired a lot of the damage it inherited and help to isolate both Russian and China. Many may think that these relationships are not important, but Russia and China certainly do. And Ukraine does even more. They are very dependent upon holding world opinion based upon the leadership of the West.


And that's only the biggest second or third order effect. There are always hundreds more, many no one can predict now. That is the lesson of history. Much of them may already be set in motion. But a lot will happen that would not otherwise if the war widens. Certainly economically in many ways, primarily oil prices. No one can control that, not even with the power of the United States. And especially when the United States is still divided and one major party has very different ideas about the US role in the world, especially vis-à-vis Russia. These events could tip the balance to that party, fair or not. There are a lot of benefits to Western global leadership that so many do not understand.


Anyway, that's all for now. Just flagging Friday/Saturday as a potentially big day. Then again, it could be absolutely nothing.

 

And if you fail to respond with appropriate force because you’re worried about events 20 years from now, then you get more even more creative attacks 20 weeks from now. If you’re Israel you’ve got the choice of bad or worse; they are choosing bad over worse.

 

Why choose bad or worse when you can go in with special ops?

 

This is pure speculation, but based upon the IDF spokesman's language (we advised civilians to move south, or words to that effect), it looks like the categorical legal review leaned heavily on the fact that civilians that remained in an area they were advised to leave after a certain period of time (forget for a moment whether that's realistic) were not reason to withhold a strike or give additional warning. IOW, those facts meet Israel's legal obligations to minimize civilian casualties .

Just speculation, but it sounded like it was tracking a legal opinion. Probably also contingent on the value of the target. Some interplay.

 

Again State Department spokesman confirming helpful role of Qatar as mediator

 

They are. Surely, you’re not suggesting that special operations do not benefit from supporting arms. Hamas has been building fortifications for years for the day they could lure Israel in to Gaza.

 

Got to love it when keyboard cowboys want to act like they know so much more about how to fight a war with cowardly terrorist than those that have been doing it for decades and whose very existence depends on being good at it.
Please.. tell us more about what Israel can and can’t do, should and shouldn’t do.. clearly you have inside knowledge.
How great would it be if Hamas turned over the hostages, all their weapons and surrendered the leaders that planned the massacre on Oct 7th? They could end all the destruction, suffering and death right there. Of course they won’t. They will continue to hide behind women and children and blame everything on Israel for daring to defend themselves.. and some people fall for that ploy. Others who support Hamas are just Nazis by another name.

 

Harsh, but I find no fault in your logic.

 

I think this is simplistic and not useful. Consider this quote from David-Ben-Gurion, and note that at the link verifying it, he gives plenty of context of the time and what it was responding to and other quotes expressing different sentiments, context we should also add to PM Meir's before we consider it universally applicable regardless of time and context. There are other relevant quotes at the page, with source, but again should be understood in context:

“If I were an Arab leader, I would never sign an agreement with Israel. It is normal; we have taken their country. It is true God promised it to us, but how could that interest them? Our God is not theirs. There has been Anti-Semitism, the Nazis, Hitler, Auschwitz, but was that their fault? They see but one thing: we have come and we have stolen their country. Why would they accept that?”
David Ben-Gurion (the first Israeli Prime Minister): Quoted by Nahum Goldmann in Le Paraddoxe Juif (The Jewish Paradox), pp121.



Ben-Gurion’s Notorious Quotes: Their Polemical Uses & Abuses

 

I would say everyone who opposed the War on Terror and counterinsurgency in Iraq/Afghanistan after 9/11 looks a lot smarter than the war mongers in Israel, the US government and keyboard generals on this board past and present. Far more accurate with their warnings and predictions on what would come to pass. Why are the same people who completely dropped the ball on security so smart and know how to prosecute this war?

 

Israelies been blaming bibi...

Bibi been blaming his security chiefs.


Whom/whoever is to blame about Israeli security lapse, Oct 7 pierced the vaunted illusion.

 

Really? That's your take? If you were in charge you'd get a lot of people killed by doing it just that way. Is that your goal?