Now John Kelly slams Trump

Oddsmakers are generally not wrong. Don’t you have a sanitation company to run?

 

Oddsmakers are wrong 49% of the time.The money is in the juice.

 

I’m not a gambler, so correct me if I’m wrong … but oddsmakers don’t pick winners, do they?. They just set odds so that money is bet evenly on both sides, right?

 

Im not sure “oddsmakers are generally not wrong” is exactly the right way to say it, but I do think there is good reason to believe that prediction markets are the best predictors of future outcomes that we have. I wouldn’t go touting any prediction this far out especially, but a collective prediction where each individual has to put their own resources at stake is perhaps the best mechanism we have for aggregating true knowledge.

 

I mean you can try to spin this any way you want, but if the election were held today, Trump would be the likely winner.

 

You didn’t have to explain this. He knows. As per the usual, he’s being flippant because the truth troubles him.

 

America disagrees with you.

 

I wouldn’t be so sure. One, I don’t think river is really that kind of person, but two, many discount the knowledge aggregating power of markets. I know many people that believe prices are never good reflections of the values of commodities. And the number of posters on the sports boards who proclaim that “Vegas spreads are not generated to predict outcomes but just collect equal money on both sides” continually draws my attention.

 

Election did not take place yet. Let’s not declare victory over a year ahead of time.

 

Well, yes, there are idiots on the football forum and in life. I was showing River a measure of respect by not lumping him in with ignorant people. But River well knows the polling data has shifted in the past few weeks and people who like to profit by risking their assets are putting their money on Trump more than they are Biden. Frankly, I’m amazed that the world is wagering a Trump victory as he has 91 felony counts hanging on him. That’s pretty astonishing when you put it into perspective. I have money I can lose, but I’m not anywhere close to ready to risk that money on a Trump victory. Now would be the time to do it, as the odds will likely shift further towards Trump, but I wouldn’t pull the trigger just yet.

 

Took O off ignore for the aft. He’s a really bad troll. He’s joining DD and mentalcoast on the perma ban..

 

America is the best country on the planet.

 

The fact that Trump was president and could be again proves this wrong. Any country that would choose Trump as its leader has serious issues.

 

Yep. They initially set them then the odds move attempting to get bets even on both sides. Obviously far, far from infallible, betting odds are one of the best predictors there are. Although trump has the best odds, “the field” is really the favorite. Trump’s odds are still roughly 2-1.

all that said, since 2015 it’s nuts how the political odds change over time. especially a year out.

 

I expected this to happen and the odds will shift further to Trump. When we look at Biden, he has essentially maxed out his approval rating. On what issue is he going to win voters over that he’s not already winning with now? The only way this tips back to Biden is if Trump screws up his campaign. But Trump is a savvy campaigner and with the current trajectory, these odds will shift further towards Trump. Trump is out holding smaller rallies and mingling with the people almost every day. Where is Biden?