The voters (including Democrats) aren't excited about Biden, that's for sure. But it's also true that Democrats have been over-performing in special elections. I'm not sure if there's a reason for that, what to make of it, or what it could mean for 2024. Democrats have been winning big in special elections Democrats just scored a big win in an election on Tuesday: Democrat Hal Rafter defeated Republican James Guzofski 56 percent to 44 percent in a special election to fill a Republican-held seat in the New Hampshire state House. Assuming Democrats win another special election in November in a solidly blue seat, Rafter’s win means the New Hampshire state House will be tied at 198 Republicans and 198 Democrats (with two independents and two seats still vacant). On paper, that will end full Republican control of New Hampshire state government. (In practice, whoever controls the House could change by the day depending on legislator absences.) It’s also the latest example of Democrats outperforming in a special election, a trend that could be a harbinger of a very good year for Democrats in 2024. This New Hampshire district is 6 percentage points more Republican-leaning than the nation as a whole, according to a weighted average of the 2020 and 2016 presidential results in the district.* Yet Rafter won by 12 points — an 18-point Democratic overperformance above their partisan baseline. “Hang on,” you might be saying. “Only 2,800 people voted in this election.” (New Hampshire House districts are really tiny.) “Does that really mean anything?” On its own, no — any single special election can be influenced by any number of factors, including candidate quality or parochial issues. But Democrats have been posting special-election overperformances of that magnitude all year long, in all kinds of districts. And on average, they have won by margins 11 points higher than the weighted relative partisanship of their districts. *** That’s more than just an impressive streak — it’s a potential sign of a Democratic wave election in 2024. In each of the past three election cycles, a party’s average overperformance in all special elections in a given cycle has been a close match for the eventual House popular vote in the eventual general election — albeit a couple of points better for Democrats.
God does not hate us. He wants mankind to come to repentance. He has a plan for everything. But he does hate you.
Twelve years ago, polls weren't so great for Obama. Only 45% approval rating, and was running neck and neck with top R candidates. How did that work out for Obama? The reality is, incumbents really need to be in bad shape to lose a re-election. And while the economy 3 years into Obama's term wasn't great, it was starting to improve. So much so that the electorate decided to stay the course and reelect Obama. Still lots of things that can happen between now and November, 2024. But assuming Trump and Biden are the two nominees, unless there is total economic upheaval, the election is Biden's to lose, regardless of what polls are saying today.
I think your wood shop is going to be in good shape. Trump isn’t winning anything ever again. You will need to make a slight adjustment though…7-11s on every corner after Nikki wins. Too soon?
I didn't think Biden could be worse than George W. Bush, but boy was I wrong. One has dementia and the other was a dumb drunk hick from Texas!!
It’s setting up to be another vote against one candidate more than voting for the other. The only candidate Biden could beat is Trump and that will be a dogfight.
How bad of a president does Biden have to be not to be comfortable as the incumbent against Trump? Good grief we suck. This.. this is the best we can do? Both political parties should look in the mirror and be ashamed at how they have failed our country. (I know.. they have no shame..).
Biden is the perfect figurehead. The older he gets, the easier he is to control. He’s not going anywhere unless he dies.
