And, let’s not forget about the concept of spending now to avoid even greater expenditures of resources, including American lives. If Russian expansion is not stopped in Ukraine, war will expand and direct conflict will become inevitable.
I agree. And we are also trying to deter Chinese aggression in Asia by demonstrating that we won’t tolerate it in Europe. I am admittedly getting less optimistic about our chances of avoiding war with China, regardless of how badly Russia loses its war.
I truly believe that China would have invaded Taiwan already if Russia had the success it predicted. Still, regardless, we are in an economic and global influential war of sorts with China, and existing policy is not working to resolve the “war” anytime soon.
If we can deter them until '29, then I think it is avoidable. Their population bomb should be going off by then. Be glad you did an inter-service transfer when you did. Force Design 2030 is like talking politics and religion in the Marine Corps right now.
The issue of non-precision munitions is bad but not quite as bad as you frame it. But the rub for me on munitions production is that the President has the power to fix it under existing law, but he hasn’t, despite the fact that for over a year the military has been advising that he get ahead of this problem. But just like the obvious solutions of increasing food and hydrocarbon production to support a long war, the President has not done so. And this is one of the cases where the political problem is not the idiots on the extreme right (MTG, Boebert, Gaetz et al) but the idiots on the extreme left (Jayapal, AOC et al). In exchange for their silence on an issue they would rather not support, the President is not taking necessary actions that would — in the view of the Far Left — enrich the evil defense, petroleum, and whatever industries. Both parties have lunatics that place their ideology over the national interest.
I think we can respectfully disagree on how bad the problem is but you have accurately described why it continues to be a problem. It is just one of many issues we are having with the DIB. Had brief from a Navy 0-6 during JCWS this summer that made me sick to my stomach.
from what I’ve read enforcement of free-navigation zone is a far reaching commitment of our air craft & ships. I’m very much in favor of supporting Ukraine. But this imo is too risky of pulling US and NATO directly into this war with a nuclear armed, irrational, despot.
I am hopeful but not optimistic that we can. Every day, new information comes to light that Xi is preparing for war no later than 2025, and politically his best chances of avoiding U.S. intervention come with striking before next year’s election. After that, the uncertainty ratchets up for him dramatically. Well, the truth is, if I hadn’t I would be retired now, at best as a LtCol, but more likely as a Maj. I certainly, under no circumstances, wouldn’t still be in the game as a student at resident war college up for colonel this year. More importantly, my poor shoulders just can’t do pull-ups anymore. Army fitness test, though? No problem.
Rock n troll brah! Fyi-- north Korea, China, and all of Islam have world domination as stated goals. That's no metric at all. The only one that matters is who poses a threat to us, our allies, and how realistic the threat is. ....and the only threat Russia poses, is nuclear.
I really think that Xi is wondering if he is getting the same best case scenario from all of his GOFO's on Taiwan that Putin did from his about having parades in Kiev in a week. Is he really willing to gamble his position and legacy on his military promising they can execute the most difficult military operation possible the first time they ever try it? To anyone that says we should not be supporting Ukraine, that is the point I make. I think Ukraine is going to cause Xi to hesitate for a couple years but I can certainly see your scenario playing out. Congrats on TLS.
I strongly suspect you are correct. And I strongly suspect our Marine friend suspects that, too, given his access to some of the same resources. What we have going for us at the moment is 1. the effectiveness of Western weapons is probably causing China to recalculate and 2. they have shifted their munitions reserves over to Russia to help them win. That gives us a gift of some time. What we will do with that gift, I cannot say.
Biden's remarks about Putin not remaining in power in Russia came after Russia invaded Ukraine. So those remarks had no bearing on his decision to invade Ukraine.
How great a deterent are we going to be when interest rates creep up towards double digits, interest on our national debt becomes larger expense than all others combined...and our economy collapses? Why we'd be almost as scary as the vestigial remains on the ol' Soviet Union I bet! ....as does China. In case you haven't noticed...
As usual, you understand it incorrectly. Spetznaz (sounds Russian, huh?) stormed Tajbeg Palace in Kabul and assassinated the Afghan president (Operation Storm-333 to the Soviets), and then installed a puppet government. The puppet government, under orders from the Kremlin, then requested Russia's military involvement. Shocking, eh? What, your pro-Russian propaganda doesn't cover that little detail? Well, it's not like you were a history major or anything. I mean, that would be embarrassing if you were. Tajbeg Palace assault - Wikipedia Consider yourself educated on the subject.
Apart from the typo, I failed to mention that your analysis was spot on. Communism was failing in Afghanistan, and the Soviets could not get an “invitation” from the regime to come fix it. So they invaded, murdered the existing political leaders, and installed a new regime that retroactively “invited” them in. We also know that Putin had a similar plan for Ukraine. Wait till that whole story comes out and how it failed spectacularly. One day, hopefully in my lifetime, that’s going to be made into an amazing movie.
According to your definition, Al Qaeda never posed a threat to the United States. No air force, no tanks, no artillery. There is no way that Osama Bin Laden could do anything to the U.S. that would even get our attention. Then 9-11 happened. Did that get your attention, or were you still in diapers? Why did Osama bin Laden get a base in Afghanistan? Because after the war with Russia, Afghans were starving. Ungrateful Americans who were a little too tight with a dollar (sound familiar?) refused to send aid to the country that won our "war" for us. Starvation led them to Islam as a coping mechanism, and support the Taliban to run the country under a strict interpretation of Islam. Part of that interpretation was a willingness to support so-called holy warriors that were going to take down the great powers of the world, starting with the U.S. What I'm telling you is this: if Ukraine falls to Russia, there will be millions of people worldwide who will starve at some point or another. Russia will have leverage to grab natural resources in Africa ("if you want to eat, you need to give us your precious metals"). Countries with nothing to offer Russia will find themselves starving. At that point, we can either spend a fortune feeding them, or wait and see if any terrorist organizations rise up and attack us. Won't that be fun? We could have a lottery to have people guess which U.S. city will be attacked each week. Another question for you: did 9-11 cause the U.S. to spend any large sums of money? Like, larger than the few million it would have cost to help the Afghans? Is it possible that saving money on aid for Afghanistan in the early 90's was a bad financial move? I mean, we did save money in the early 1990's, didn't we?
Risk is certainly the heart of the matter. But Putin is a rational actor, and despite all of the tough talk he puts out through his trolls, we know how scared he is of inadvertently bringing NATO into the war. I firmly believe we could implement air and sea control between Odessa and Istanbul, and Putin would have to allow it. I believe that to the degree that I would put myself on one ship and my son on another. (Both of us are Army, not Navy, but the point stands)
Lighten up, Francis. We can handle a year or two with high inflation. Our inflation hit 8.6% a year or two ago, after spending a ton of money developing a Covid vaccine. We survived. Your parents would be horrified to find out that you would be unwilling to endure a couple years at 8-9% inflation to get rid of the Soviet/Russian menace after what they dealt with in the 1970's. What I'm telling you is that if we allow Russia to win this war, we will continue (and likely increase) our military spending to deal with future threats from Russia and elsewhere in the next decade. If we tighten our belts and help Ukraine win this war, we will not have to spend nearly as much money on defense the next decade. Inflation will be easily controlled to any level we want without this additional spending. This actually happened in the 1990's. U.S. federal budgets in the 1990's were essentially balanced for the first time in decades. The U.S. economy was very successful (partly due to the internet economy, and partly due to a smaller defense budget) in the mid- to late-1990's. Why wouldn't you want a highly successful economy again? Why wouldn't you want the government to have the financial ability to solve serious problems (energy, fresh water, transportation, global warming, etc.)?
