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Let's Watch These Kids Grow Together . . .

Discussion in 'RayGator's Swamp Gas' started by ETGator, Sep 11, 2023.

  1. Matthanuf06

    Matthanuf06 GC Hall of Fame

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    I am seemingly the only one that is focused on total offensive performance. It is NOT just about Mertz

    And again you are showing you ignorance on stats. There is something called sample size. And if your offense gets a lot more drops that turn into picks compared to your peers then guess what? Your offense sucks. WR skill does matter, why are you denying that?

    Do you think teams should get a redo for a dropped pass?
     
  2. LS1

    LS1 All American

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    What the hell are you even talking about? OK, I'm done here lol
     
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  3. Matthanuf06

    Matthanuf06 GC Hall of Fame

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    Your view is our running game is great, passing game is great, and scheme is great. So great offense!

    So what do you call all the other teams that have undeniably better production (particularly passing)? Super duper great?

    I seriously question that you watch the games if you think we have a great offense, particularly passing. There is no way a human being can watch football and be like the UF 2023 passing offense is a top 10 or top 20 unit (define great however). That simply cannot be possible
     
  4. 31g8r

    31g8r GC Hall of Fame

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    Unlike you im not blaming anyone for anything. I watching the season unfold and the TEAM evolve. We are a run first team with a ball control passing mentality, currently. The fact we arent operating a scheme you prefer is on you. What you like to see got punked last sat night.

    The big IF is can we sustain this current iteration of our offensive philosophy throughout the season. If so we will create issues for most of the teams we play.

    From a practical perspective there is value to being a different style of offense than most teams that cant be measured properly with metrics

    The downside is it is a team approach and 3 games isnt enough to see if we can thrive on this approach but it is effective when working
     
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  5. Matthanuf06

    Matthanuf06 GC Hall of Fame

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    You are the one making up hypothetical negative plays. Then you act like a negative play has no impact on the game. It feels like I’m talking to a child. Yes, a dropped pass hurts the team. The fact you don’t realize that is a bit out of this world.
     
  6. lizardbreath

    lizardbreath GC Hall of Fame

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    Thanks for the B'day "card"!...That is so cool! Many thanks...I will now sing Happy Birthday to me ten thousand times.
     
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  7. 31g8r

    31g8r GC Hall of Fame

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    Only in fantasy football where W/Ls of the individual players is meaningless
     
  8. hawaiigator

    hawaiigator GC Legend

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    Yeah, Game 1 was caused by terrible OL, mainly the back up center. He had multiple sacks in that one game. Outside of that, I believe Mertz is a pretty athletic guy. His number is not called to run the ball so using his productivity for that is a useless stat. If he runs 3 plays in a game for 30 yards and gets 3 1st downs, he may very well still be 124th in production because other QBs are running the ball. ALSO, we have played 2 top 15 teams while the majority of teams have played cupcakes so far. Where does that fit into your data? The way you are looking at data is the same way teams were looking at Trey Lance You specifically said he’s not mobile, I 100% disagree with that assessment. You are now shifting your talk to shadow your love for a running QB.

    Since we are back on that topic, this exactly what everyone else is trying to explain to you. Data in a vacuum is one thing, and then applying that data to what your eyes are seeing is another. You claim a running QB is the route to go because it opens up the run game which opens up the pass game. Part of me agrees with that, but then another part of me disagrees. Take for example the Chicago Bears. They have a running QB and it does absolutely nothing for them. Johnny Manzel was a running QB, how’d they do? Many other QBs in college and NFL are running QBs and it doesn’t add the value you are always preaching. There are other metrics at play that decide that. Teams have identities that they build off of. Some teams build off a power running game, some an air raid, some balanced. Some want a running QB and some want a pocket passer. Personnel factor into it as well. How good did Mahomes look when Kelce wasn’t in the game?

    if you could, please answer all questions instead of picking one that fits your point.
     
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  9. Matthanuf06

    Matthanuf06 GC Hall of Fame

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    I am perfectly happy with any scheme provided the total offensive output is high. I’m agnostic on it

    The irony is this entire thing started since I said we had a good offense last year. People due to their hate of AR couldn’t believe it. So far the 2022 offensive is superior to 2023. 2022 was good, 2023 is ok. That’s just an empirical fact.

    The team is arguably better (arguably since both teams were 1-1 vs UT/UT) due to a massive improvement in defense. I’ve been consistent that any team improvement would be due to the D, especially since the O may take a step back. This is exactly what has happened.

    For the record I do think 2023 UF is better than 2022. But it’s 110% due to defensive improvements as ST has regressed and the O is slightly worse.

    Yet somehow all of you want to simp for Mertz. It does him a disservice by the way. Let him be who he is rather than building him into something he isn’t
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Sep 21, 2023
  10. gatordavisl

    gatordavisl VIP Member

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    It's hard to choose where to start, but I'll begin here.
    You've given little if any detail wrt route trees or defensive switches. Mostly what you've done is claim some high road based on "statistics," which you've provided little to none of, mostly nebulous references that have changed since the Gator beat down of TN. It's also telling that at you seem not to take any joy from that glorious win.

    Continuing . . .
    This is just one of multiple strawman arguments you've posed. Nobody made such a claim and the truth is that after the glorious victory over TN, you felt a need to pivot to some fabricated argument suggesting an illusory point.

    More BS here, esp. considering the way you have addressed those who disagree with you. Case in point:
    Then you should be THRILLED with the outcome against TN, but instead you choose to quibble about stats that were no part of your original argument.
    Was this part of your sage predictive analysis? Good call!
    My opinion: You are doing little more than chasing your tail throughout this thread.
     
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  11. Matthanuf06

    Matthanuf06 GC Hall of Fame

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    Total production includes all portions of production. If a QB isn’t called to run then his passing has to make up for it. So Mertz lack of running means his passing has to be superior to a running quarterback simply to match total production. This is also why I care about total production. Let’s assume RBs ran the ball every play. Obviously then QB/WR production would be zero. The RB production would then have to make up for the lost production. Such a strategy is only effective if total production exceeds what a balanced attack would produce. The irony is I’m not even saying our offense is awful. It’s not. It’s a little worse than the 2022 version. For some people that gets some panties in wads

    Good statistics adjust for competition. Also UTs defense isn’t good.

    As stated I don’t think a running QB is the way to go. There are lots of ways to go. What matters is the total production is high. You can certainly have a very highly productive offense without a QB running. Almost always you need an elite passing attack in that case.

    Trey Lance actually wasn’t an analytical darling. He was more of an eye test guy due to measurables. He barely played. AR was also a guy drafted on measurables. Guys like Tua/Burrow were A++ statistical players.

    You talked a bit about running QBs. I believe I answered it. I have no locked in preference. I care about total productivity period.

    And of course personnel matters. Again, I care about total productivity. The quality of player is certainty a part of the equation.

    I believe I answered everything. Underlying your post seems to be a thought I don’t like Mertz. That’s just not the case. For me it’s not just about Mertz vs other QBs. It’s about the entire offensive unit, coaching down to players.
     
  12. 31g8r

    31g8r GC Hall of Fame

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    Dude you are f’ing nuts!
    Nowhere in my post did i mention any player.
    Below is my my post you responded to note i didnt mention any player especially the 2 you entered into your reply. I choosen to place you on ignore since admins still see value in allowing you still post on the forum. May our paths never cross again

    31g8r said:
    Unlike you im not blaming anyone for anything. I watching the season unfold and the TEAM evolve. We are a run first team with a ball control passing mentality, currently. The fact we arent operating a scheme you prefer is on you. What you like to see got punked last sat night.

    The big IF is can we sustain this current iteration of our offensive philosophy throughout the season. If so we will create issues for most of the teams we play.

    From a practical perspective there is value to being a different style of offense than most teams that cant be measured properly with metrics

    The downside is it is a team approach and 3 games isnt enough to see if we can thrive on this approach but it is effective when working
     
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  13. hawaiigator

    hawaiigator GC Legend

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    Everything you have said here completely contradicts other posts you have made in other topics.


    Both false, that’s an opinion
     
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  14. Matthanuf06

    Matthanuf06 GC Hall of Fame

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    What exactly is your point? If you think we are the greatest offense ever then you are just wrong. Quite delusional

    So why are you crying when I point our offensive rankings? Is it because I have the courage to point out publicly available numbers in front of the delusional 0.1% of the fanbase?
     
  15. Matthanuf06

    Matthanuf06 GC Hall of Fame

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    It’s not an opinion.

    Offensive production is the sum of various pieces of production. Passing and rushing. Passing can be to WR, TE, RB. Rushing can be RB, WR, QB

    I can’t be more clear. It’s about total production.

    Yes if you have no rushing, then you have to be A++++ passing to be an A offense…literally by definition.

    If a QB can’t rush, then another component has to make up for it. Again, by definition. I personally don’t care if it’s RB rushing, WR catching, WR rushing, etc.

    But it’s statistically proven that if a QB can’t run it is nearly always made up by QB passing…not by more RB rushing. I can give you a zillion good offenses with pocket passers that sling it. There aren’t too many offenses anymore with bad QB rushing, bad QB passing, and elite RB rushing. Sure it’s theoretically can happen…but it’s playing the game on hard mode.

    Your mix of bad passing + elite rushing is like the Jimmy G 49ers, Dilfer Ravens, etc. Possible for sure. But take a look at the last 3 SB winners. Non QB runners, with elite passing. Brady, Stafford, Mahomes

    It’s also obvious if Mertz is able to turn the running/sack deficiencies into say 50 yards…then that’s additive to the current offensive production.
     
  16. hawaiigator

    hawaiigator GC Legend

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    We don’t need to be the greatest offense ever, we just need to win the game, whether that is by defense, offense, running, passing…it doesn’t matter. You’re the one here saying we need to be at a certain spot and a certain way. Unless you’re holding onto saying “I told you so” later in the year, everything you’re doing/saying matters 0.
     
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  17. ETGator

    ETGator Long-Time Gator Stuck In East Tennessee Moderator VIP Member

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    I was at my grandson's practice and trying to follow along with spotty cell service.

    For inserting racism (which I've deleted), twice, that poster won't be in this thread for 3-days to allow him a chance to cool off . . . and the discussion to go elsewhere. Anyway, he won't be able to respond to any posts directed to him here for that time.
     
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  18. 31g8r

    31g8r GC Hall of Fame

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    I’m sorry you have to split time here and family activities. I do hope you enjoyed the opportunity to watch an “open” practice.

    i appreciate the intervention but i wasnt going to run to the “teacher” for assistance
     
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  19. ETGator

    ETGator Long-Time Gator Stuck In East Tennessee Moderator VIP Member

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    I understand . . . and for the record you didn't report anything. I got home and caught up in the thread.
     
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  20. LS1

    LS1 All American

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    ^ you have no idea what my views are, because you don't even try to understand anything anyone says to you. I have no idea how you manage to reach these wild conclusions. Everything you said in that response has absolutely NOTHING to do with the discussion.

    ^ like the rest of your posts, this makes zero sense whatsoever. Are we even reading the same thread here? You have yet to address a single point that is presented to you. What color is the sky in your world?

    Look man, it's clear that you don't know nearly as much about analytics as you pretend to know, but it's a pretty simple concept: data is most useful if you seek to understand WHY the numbers are what they are. Even the most advanced statistics, while providing great value, frequently lack context. You have proven time and time again that you are incapable of connecting the dots. Clearly you can't watch a game and comprehend what your eyes are seeing, otherwise some of this might actually make sense to you.

    This will be my last response to you. I am sure you'll tell me I'm a child or I need to educate myself, or whatever other nonsense you have been spouting while you put words in my mouth. That's fine, I really don't care anymore. You are nothing more than a poser who contributes absolutely nothing of value to this forum.
     
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