War in Ukraine

Personally, I’m not sure there is a lot to gain from hearing him speak again so soon. There does not seem to be a big decision in front of Congress at the moment where the people’s representatives need to hear from him. If he was going to ask for something new, like maritime support to enforce freedom of the seas or the like, then maybe it would be appropriate to hear his pitch. But as far as I know, his position has not changed since his last address: keep sending the aid, we’ll keep stacking up the Russians. Since there is no real change in his request and no real danger of decreasing aid at this time, the venue — as you suggest — could only do more harm than good, allowing those few extremists who support Russia an opportunity to embarrass themselves, their party, and their country.

 

I hope so. I remain less sanguine until it actually happens.

 

without SAMS, can Russia defend their helicopters? Does Ukraine AF have anything that can neutralize the russian helicopters

 

As far as I know, the Russian helicopter threat has been more or less neutralized by the man-portable SAMs we provide to Ukraine. You just don’t read that much about Russian helicopters being used beyond rear-area security and for logistical support. But if you have different information, please post it. Helicopters are my profession. If Russia has found a way to use them in close support again without the prohibitive losses they were taking in the opening weeks, then I would love to read about it.

 

I don't really disagree. I do like the opportunity to put out some clips for later newscasts of gratitude, etc. The Ukrainian comms team, through VZ, is very good at that kind of stuff, and I'd like to think it would move the needle in public opinion. But likely not.

 

Well … not yet. Let’s see how the next two months play out.

 

informative. maybe it was old or wrong but the helicopters seemed to inflict heavy damage on armored equipment slowed, stalled in mine fields or throttled into choke points and closely bunched. perhaps the fluidity of the line and the depth of penetration of the manpads has pushed the helicopters out of their effective range.

The threat of Russian attack helicopters - Militarnyi

To date, Russian attack helicopters have reached their peak in the defensive during the offensive of the Ukrainian military in the South in the summer of 2023. Ka-52 and Mi-28 attack helicopters were able to apply their high maneuverability on the battlefield to quickly come to the aid of ground units as “fire teams” and shoot defenseless convoys of AFU armored vehicles at maximum range.

The critical low availability of medium-range anti-aircraft systems with the Ukrainian ground forces and the general weakness of the UAF fighter aircraft led to the fact that Russian helicopters were able to operate safely in the near-front zone.

In general, attack helicopters have demonstrated their potential due to the possibility of hovering over the battlefield and the use of a “battery” of anti-tank guided missiles from long distances. Integrated onboard all-weather optical sensors allow them to autonomously identify targets without external targeting.

Ukraine's Armor Appears To Have A Russian Attack Helicopter Problem (thedrive.com)

 

TOp russian sub commander caught in conflict, killed by Azerbaijan forces while in armenian enclave under attack

Top Russian Submarine Fleet Commander Killed by NATO-Aligned Forces (newsweek.com)

Without naming the dead, Russia's Defense Ministry said one of its vehicles had come under small-arms fire near a Karabakh village called Janyatag in Azeri and Chankatagh in Armenian. Rybar, a pro-war Telegram channel with reported links to Russia's military, said two Russian soldiers were inside the vehicle when it was hit.

Armenian outlets and the St. Petersburg Club of Submariners and Navy Veterans said among the dead was the deputy commander of the Northern Fleet submarine forces, Ivan Kovgan. Newsweek has emailed Russia's defense ministry for comment.

Northern Fleet officer Andrei Luzik paid tribute to Kovgan, who was about to turn 51 on Saturday. "He was a naval sailor, but fate led him to the mountains, where a treacherous bullet claimed his life. May Ivan Vasilievich's memory be honored. He dedicated his all to his service and his Motherland, and alas, life itself," he said, according to Armenian news site News.am.

While not a member of NATO, Azerbaijan has close ties with alliance member Turkey and has been a partner with the bloc since 1992, after the break-up of the USSR.

 

Biden’s UN speech can be summarized “surrender and dismember.” Putin copies/pastes earlier “let them try.”

I'd summarize Seymour Hersch's "When the intelligence is inconvenient" as: Ukraine has already lost, and if the US sends in the military, it will be the US that loses next. Don't.

Question: if the U.S. does enter the war and takes an early battering, how will the American public respond ?

 

My thought was let the us or other western countries buy it and distribute it to areas in famine.

 

I like the idea with a caveat: Countries in famine who are willing to re-examine their neutrality or support of Russia. This a realist game that Russia has inflicted on the world, and we need to start playing by realist rules.

 

I will support a full investigation into Ukrainian war crimes right after Vladimir Putin's execution for war crimes. First things first.

 

Biden - No ATACMS for you. They would be able to reach the bridge and the coastal routes to Crimea to save Ukrainian lives as they reclaim Crimes

 

Russian counterattacks are described as "desperate", "ill-conceived", and "hysterical". So, things are going pretty well for them, compared to typical Russian offensive operations. Oh, one more thing, a lot of their artillery is refusing to go boom when it hits the target. Obviously, this is intentional, to let Ukrainians know what could happen to them if they used real ammunition instead of North Korean garbage that's been moldering in a cave for 70 years.

Russian commanders are ordering troops to make 'hysterical' and 'ill-conceived' counterattacks with shoddy artillery shells: report

 

Apparently, Russia lost some of its best units attempting to advance near Bakhmut. Russia kept pouring reinforcements into the line after Ukraine broke through the Russian defensive lines there, and large numbers of them got slaughtered.

Russians lost best units on Bakhmut front but continue assault – Commander of Ukraine's Ground Forces

 

Russia forced to concede defeat in Armenia. The Brits claim that Putin is too weak to support his regional allies, and his backyard is rapidly shrinking. Russia was backing Armenian separatists in Azerbaijan for the last 35 years, but the conflict came to a quick conclusion this week. Armenia no longer looks to Russia for support, and recently had military exercises with the U.S. Another humiliation for Putin.

Shockingly Quick Defeat Shows Putin Is Now Too Weak to Defend His Allies

 

Good luck with that.

 

The United States is being defeated in Ukraine.

One could say that it is facing defeat — or, more starkly, that it is staring defeat in the face. Neither formulation is appropriate, though. The U.S. doesn’t look reality squarely in the eye. It prefers to look at the world through the distorted lenses of its fantasies. It plunges forward on whatever path it’s chosen while averting its eyes from the topography it is trying to traverse. Its sole guiding light is the glow of a distant mirage. That is its lodestone.

It is not that America is a stranger to defeat. It is very well acquainted with it: Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria — in strategic terms if not always military terms. To this broad category, we might add Venezuela, Cuba and Niger. That rich experience in frustrated ambition has failed to liberate Washington from the deeply rooted habit of eliding defeat. Indeed, the U.S. has acquired a large inventory of methods for doing so.

US Can't Deal with Defeat

 

Just saw that. I was hoping otherwise, but there might be logistical considerations for holding on to our inventory. I am really suspending disbelief on this one as my gut tells me it’s just another patch of weak advice that the President follows from Jake Sullivan without looking hard at how many times that guy (Sullivan) has been wrong as wrong can be.