War in Ukraine

It will definitely be interesting to see what mud season brings. I begrudgingly agree that there probably won't be any more significant gains by either side. Just battling for negotiating leverage now. That said, Ukraine could just adopt a defensive posture and drag this out indefinitely too. So, we'll see what mud season brings.

 

I don't know man. The Russians are . . . Different.

 

The Russian invasion was a rational act

 

I had suspected that the Russians were killing Ukrainians 10:1 of late. But the virulently anti-Putin Mediazona hints at gobsmacking disparity, in kill ratios, with Russian casualties trickling off into almost nothing in August.

This can only point to Ukrainians throwing “meat wave” after meat wave at nearly impregnable Russian defense lines and Russia’s overwhelming firepower advantage over Ukraine and its Western allies …

https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch...ee98-8c62-4bbd-a50f-ee39cfb1d808_1238x865.png

 

Ukraine soon to abandon disastrous offensive and fall back to protect Odessa ?

Ukraine continues to press attacks on Crimea and Russia destroys three U.S.-made fast attack boats.

And Abrams being slow-rolled because the Pentagon sees other Western tanks getting lit up on a regular basis ?

Ukraine Weekly Update

 

Russia just lost the use of a missile-carrier ship to a Ukrainian drone near the entrance to Sevastopol Bay. It's a shame the drone wasn't able to light off any of the missiles and sink the ship.

Ukrainian SeaBaby drone hits Russian Samum missile warship in Black Sea

 

The attacks of ships in and around Crimea are obviously a prelude to cutting off Crimea from the Russian mainland. That would eliminate one route of supplying Russian units in southern Ukraine and make things much more difficult for Russia. If Russia could have invaded Odessa, they would have done so by now. An amphibious landing may be beyond the abilities of Russia's feeble military.

By "regular basis", do you mean one or two western tanks per month? If so, then how does that compare to 4500 Russian tanks being destroyed in 18 months (250 per month)? Or 500 Russian tanks being appropriated (taken) by Ukraine in 18 months (28 per month)? Or is that more of a continuous basis?

Sounds like you are getting lit up on a regular basis . . .

 

I’m drawing from sources other than the types of sources that reported half of Russian troops frostbitten in March 2022, Russian troops subsisting on zoo animals, Putin with seven types of cancer, Ukraine winning, etc.

 

What's that, a 1% interest rate increase every three weeks? They should be up to 25% interest rate by springtime. That's a shame.

But as long as their economy is doing fine (according to the propagandists), I guess it won't hurt them. [Controlling laughter . . . ]

 

Estonian intelligence has evidence indicating that Russia is likely to move "the fleet" (or what's left of it) from Sevastopol all the way back to Novorossiysk on the Russian coast of the Black Sea. One Russian navy: de-cleated and defeated. Next!

Estonian intelligence: Russians may relocate ships from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk

 

Ukraine liberates Avdiivka, just south of Bahkmut.

Ukraine's Armed Forces storm and liberate Andriivka, have successes near Klishchiivka in Donetsk Oblast – General Staff report

 

What an absurd conclusion. Of course, confirmed Russian dead dwindles down to zero the closer you get to the present day. That's because:

a) Russia is trying to hide the number of casualties. They even commandeered hospitals in Belarus to keep their own citizens from finding out how many were being wounded and killed.

b) No westerners have good access to the Russian side of the front OR Russia's medical facilities, which is where most casualties would come through.

c) Russian troops are under orders NOT to retrieve dead bodies. Putin doesn't want to pay the families. Ukrainian troops often come upon Russian dead in trenches and in other places.

d) It takes a while to confirm the number of dead when Russia is trying to keep that number hidden. It takes a lot of research into obituaries and other sources to find all the dead troops. The number for last week will come up in future analysis, don't you worry about that.

Russia has no overwhelming firepower advantage over Ukraine. If anything, Ukraine has an overwhelming firepower advantage over Russia. Ukraine's western weapons are far more accurate than Russia's, and allows more hits on target with less ammo. Russian troops are lucky not to shoot each other (and sometimes, that luck doesn't hold out).

And about those impregnable Russian defense lines. The only thing that Russia had going for it was a nearly inexhaustible supply of landmines they've been waiting to use for 50 years. Well, the mines are exhausted, and so are the troops. Ukraine has already started breaking through the first and best line of defense for Russia, and things are starting to unravel for you, comrade, as Ukraine starts shredding the second and soon, the third line of defense.

I can certainly understand why you are getting desperate and making outrageous claims . . .

 

A good article on why Russia can't defeat Ukraine's air force. Ukraine almost always lands a plane at a different air base than it took off from. And it takes 48 hours for Russia to process incoming information and develop an attack plan, and Ukraine has relocated the target by then.

Ukraine's air force has gotten good at fighting on the run, and Russia's military can't catch up, top US general says

 

Ukraine drives Russians out of two positions northwest of Bahkmut.

Ukrainian military drive Russians out of several more positions near Bakhmut – ISW

 

Three reasons why the U.S. is relegated to fighting its wars with other countries’ people …

Three Reasons Why Military Recruitment Is in Crisis | Ryan McMaken

 

Stark findings from the Army War College on America’s combat readiness …

The U.S. suffered 50,000 casualties in two decades of fighting in Afghanistan in two decades. In an Ukraine-like war it would suffer that level of casualties in two weeks, a sustained 3,600 per day.

The Army’s Individual Ready Reserve stood at 700,000 in 1973, 450,000 in 1994 and just 70,000 today.

https://press.armywarcollege.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3240&context=parameters

 

Comment of note …

“Instead of being an independent, neutral country and having the best of the East and the West, Ukraine has decided to not have a country.”

 

Russia is making a "very costly" tactical mistake in their defenses, and it is causing all kinds of problems. They put too much emphasis on the first line of defense, and too little on the second and third lines of defense, and it is making counter-attacks in front of their defensive positions in the first line instead of staying on defense. They may lose too many troops defending the first line to have enough to defend the second and third lines.

Russia is making a 'very costly' tactical mistake that means its second line of defense will be easier to penetrate, analysts say

 

This has to be irritating for the Russians: some of the pro-Ukrainian partisans are members of the Russian army. One just blew up two trucks full of Russian soldiers in Henichesk. Kherson Oblast.

Russian partisan blows up 2 trucks carrying Russian occupiers in Henichesk, Kherson Oblast