CNN: Biden's "devastating" latest poll, could give Trump the White House.

I am always surprised when anyone supports Trump. If he were a democrat I’d never support him.

 

LOL what a bunch of donkey excrement

 

I’ve voted for Republicans before and none of their opponents were as devastating awful as Trump.

 

Yes. The numbers don't lie.

The economy grew at a 2.4 percent annual rate in the second quarter of the year, handily beating economists’ expectations, the Commerce Department reported last week. Price growth slowed in June even as consumer spending picked up. The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of year-over-year inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index, has now fallen to 3 percent this year from about 7 percent last June — easing the pressure on Mr. Biden from the economic problem that has bedeviled his presidency thus far.
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If you need more, you can see things in chart form here.

Greatest economy ever?!? No. But neither was the economy under Trump. The reality is other then the COVID period, since Obama's third year in office, we've been in a mature economy. Growth rates of 2.5% to 3%, with new jobs added, and the only thing that's interrupted it was a global pandemic. The pandemic also disrupted supply chains that caused inflation, but things have returned to normal. And the Biden economy? It's pretty good. Despite what you might think or have heard in your right-wing echo chamber bubble.

 

If you disagree, instead of posting a silly meme that disproves nothing, why not actually attempt at engaging in spirited debate? Or is that too difficult to ask?

 

Dude, you’re so far out there. It ain’t worth it.

 

this is why the Democrats are going to lose the next election. Do you think the American people are stupid? Americans don’t need to look at any numbers to know that economy is worse off today than it was six years ago. The price of everything has pretty much gone up by at least 20%. Interest rates are at the highest level this century. Buying power has decreased. People today have less money in their pocket than they did six years ago. This is due to not only inflation, but pay hasn’t kept up. Almost 60% of Americans have less than $5000 in the savings.

The American people are not going to buy what the Democratic party is selling. I’m not saying that the American people are going to buy what the Republican party is selling either, but if the Democrats run on the economy, they have little chance of winning.

 

So the answer is no. You don't have it in you to actually debate the numbers.

As for the economy versus six years ago, this chart does a good job of tracking inflation versus wage growth.



Things are certainly more expensive today. Won't argue against that fact. But wages are also higher, and the real wage growth numbers are slowly catching up to the inflation numbers. Especially since inflation has been trending down.

Interest rates are high, but American got used to historically low numbers. 7.5% is historically near the median, and a far cry from the double digits we have seen in the past. I expect this number too eventually drop as the inflation rate continues to slow down.

It isn't fair to compare today with six years ago. The global pandemic disrupted the entire planet. And when you compare the US to the rest of the biggest economies in the world, we're doing better today than they are! Does that mean we're doing better than we were six years ago? Maybe not, but again, it's not like you can pretend the global pandemic didn't happen. It did.

The bottom line is our economy is growing, unemployment is down, inflation is slowing down, real wages are catching up, and compared to the top economies in the world, nobody is doing better. Don't think so? How about some data to back up the claim? Don't just tell me your opinion. Show your work.

 

I was being funny

 

I ‘member when the favored argument during Obama’s years, was that ZIRP created a fake economy and all the job numbers were fake. Somehow those “fake” numbers turned on a dime the day of Trumps inauguration to become the greatest economy evah.

It’s kind of amusing now that interest rates are essentially at historical norms - as they were before the financial crises - now people such as yourself want to pretend ZIRP or ultra low interest rates is the standard? The economy is in good shape based on practically every available metric, about as good as we could hope for coming out of the highly disruptive pandemic. 4-5% treasury is in a historical Goldilocks zone. Mortage interest rates are perhaps about 1% higher than what we’d want to see, esp when combined with limited housing supply and high asking prices.


The danger for the dems running on the economy, is mostly due to affordability issues for young people in particular. The job market is strong (even with the fed taking active measures to kill it), household formation is strong, but first time homebuyer affordability is horrendous. That’s a real issue, and it surely demotivates young people and those of limited means. Though realistically I’m not sure either side has any ability to “solve” housing affordability at a federal level. Guys like Trump and Desantis actually propose making it worse by restricting immigrant labor and “across the board” tariffs. Those are inflationary policies and potentially something Biden or any Dem could call out. But Biden is not innocent in this either, as he mostly left Trumps idiot tariffs in place, and the infrastructure bill is also inflationary (necessary, but in the short term… inflationary). Despite this, I’d say Biden is actually the “lesser of two evils” even on an issue like the economy or inflation. That might not have been conventional wisdom 10 years ago, but it’s obvious now with the GOP drifting towards nationalism and anti-trade/anti-business policies.

 

I will repeat what I already said. Numbers are irrelevant. People don’t vote on numbers. People vote on their own situation. Poll after poll shows that Americans are pessimistic about the future, the economy, and their ability to live a fruitful existence. With Biden’s current energy position, I think we can expect gasoline to be over five dollars a gallon by the time the election rolls around next year. That’s going to swing 3 to 5% of the vote right there. Game over.

 

Nobody was wondering if they were going to be crapping their diapers in a couple of years.

 

So your argument is that Biden's position on energy, in which we had the fourth highest production month ever domestically last month, is going to cost him 3-5% of the vote because he is so anti-energy that prices will shoot up despite rising domestic supply?

U.S. Field Production of Crude Oil (Thousand Barrels per Day)

 

People may not care about the numbers. But the numbers are derived by how people and the economy are doing. And the numbers are saying people are doing OK.

Sure, there those who think the economy sucks. Same people who thought Trump had the best ever economy and the Obama economy was awful, even though the numbers were almost identical for Obama's last 6 and Trump's first 3 years. These aren't the ones who generally decide national elections, however.

Those in the middle do. And again, the numbers say, in general, they are doing OK. And because of that, they are likely to prefer staying the course over change.

The numbers don't lie. Biden's economy is pretty good. And unless that changes between now and November 2024, those in the middle may decide not to risk a change.

 

But those are numbers, and numbers don't matter.