CNN: Biden's "devastating" latest poll, could give Trump the White House.

The X factor these polls don't account for are abortion rights and legalization of marijuana initiatives on the various states' ballots. They will drive voter turnout and those people will not be voting R. It's very fitting that the abortion issue will be the undoing of the republican party in 2024.

 

You'll never go broke over-estimating the stupidity of the American public. That's for sure. But when you look at historical polls this far out for the last two D POTUS' to win re-election, Biden is actually in a slightly better position. His approval rating is slightly higher than B. Clinton and Obama.

The other factor is the middle who generally only vote for change if things are going real bad. Unless there is a major change between now and November, which is possible but not looking likely, the majority of these voters are likely to break for Biden. Especially if Trump is the candidate for the Rs. I expect a lot of Biden commercials showing things like real wages, low unemployment, COVID recovery, and how crazy things were when Trump was mean-tweeting on a daily basis. The message is things are just fine on the economic end with Biden, and Biden doesn't come with the narcissistic crazy of Trump. The message won't sit will with the far right, but they aren't the audience. The center is the target.

This assumes Trump isn't convicted between now and November. That happens, and then what? Again, the far right won't care. But the middle? Another swing towards Biden in my opinion.

 

Then why won’t you provide a link that supports this?

 

He's correct, but it weighted the samples to try to adjust for it. The better point is that polls this far out simply aren't very predictive.
A Year Out, Ignore General Election Polls

 

CNN Poll: Biden faces negative job ratings and concerns about his age as he gears up for 2024 | CNN Politics

The survey included an oversample to reach a total of 898 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents; this group has been weighted to its proper size within the population.

 

it was weighted so he is wrong.

No it is way too early, but nonetheless it is concerning. Objectively it shouldn’t be close. He isn’t getting any younger.

As pointed out although Biden won handily via popular vote not so much with electoral college. Yeah I still give the advantage to Biden but it may be too close to comfort.

 

Technically, he was correct. The poll did oversample Republicans. But it's not a big deal because they weighted it, as I said.

 

Yes the statement was technically correct but is implication was wrong. Call it lying by omission. You were correct.

These polls are weighted and adjusted all the time.

The Trump vs Biden result was consistent with other recent polling that has them neck and neck. Realistically Biden has to win by 2 or 3 points or he may lose the electoral college. The fact that he runs away with CA and NY only helps so much.

 

lol, how can you weight out a 60/40 partisan split in a country that is 25% GOP?

This poll is utter nonsense and not worth discussing other than where the pulse of the GOP primary vote is, nothing else.

 

Not only that but the article said that Biden's best chance is against Trump. If Trump is not able to run because of the special clause if he is convicted, most of the other republican candidates easily beat Biden, with Haley trouncing him. Now, Trump isn't going to drop out for any reason, because even if he's convicted, he will appeal which will take years to see it through and if he's President, he'll just pardon himself. These convictions aren't having the effect the dems wanted, it's giving Trump all of the headlines for free. Look at his popularity - the more charges they bring up, the higher his rating.

 

I agree in principle but I think or maybe hope Biden is a pragmatist. He scaled the mountain. Give someone else the chance.

 

As usual this poll points out the miserable job the democrats do messaging. Partly because they focus on issues and results and America is dazzled by talking points and anecdotes. War is right… don’t underestimated the stupidity of the American republic.

I think Biden had done a great job administratively… but he’s a better vice president as he is as inspiring as Campbell’s soup. I would love to see him pass the baton to Whitmore or Newsome.

 

Thank you, now I don't have to follow this thread anymore!

 

Not just Trump propaganda: FBI Director Christopher Wray issues warning about number of Russian spies in the US | CNN Politics

 

It’s close enough to the end of summer for me to start weighing in again.

Yes the polls show that the President has low approval ratings, but they also show Trump has even lower ratings. Further, in 2020 people were saying Biden was too old to be President. Finally the 2020 polls showed Trump was beating Biden in the polls.

Conclusion being take polls with a grain of salt, people are ready for a new generation, and besides the anti-democracy MAGA’s they’re sure as Hell not going to vote for Trump.

 

see. You’re already hedging

 

I like polls when they reinforce my opinions, otherwise they are premature, biased and/or useless.

 

Sorry you're wrong besides you and about 3 other never Trumpers the rest will vote Trump over Biden