CNN: Biden's "devastating" latest poll, could give Trump the White House.

Uh oh, biden's about to become unfit.

 

A couple differences I see are that Biden is an incumbent while Trump isn't. Republicans not only have the chance to select someone new but they also have a pretty deep bench of people from which to choose. Yeah, people are concerned about Biden's age. That's clear. But neither the article nor the polling data I saw gives me any indication about which possible Democratic alternative to Biden is being proposed as the best match up against the Republican nominee.

 

Didn't Bill Clinton have bad poll numbers back this time in 1997? And people were worried about Obama's numbers this time back in 2011? And didn't they both win re-election by a significant margin?

Biden is old, but as the incumbent, he'll be able to run on the last few years being pretty good. Had it not been for COVID, Trump could've done the same, and he might have actually one. Things have to be really, really bad for incumbents to lose. COVID, a global pandemic and how Trump handled it qualifies. So, unless things turn really bad between now and November, 2024, Biden will have a distinct advantage, especially against Trump.

 

I think Biden runs unless somehow Trump doesn't win the GOP nom.

 

Meanwhile in the real world... trumph is just 3 years younger than Biden and we are NOT expected to slip into a recession. Seems like the dems need to re evaluate their message to the American people. We are obviously a dumb country.

 

I think Trump wins EZ.
1. He went out his way to lose in 2016 & won.
2. He went out of his way to lose in 2020 & 44,000 votes were the diff. Switch 44,000 votes in 3 states & there woulda been an EC tie. 44,000!!!! IMO, he'd've easily won in 2020 if he'd acted a bit more presidential regarding covid.
3. There are never Trumpers & there are New/pseudo Never Trumpers. the pseudos will be looking for a reason to vote for Trump. Here's 1. Get a VP that is not ridiculous. In fact, as of right now, I think this is the key to the election. Get a Nikki H or Tim Scott & a bunch of Never Trumpers are gonna vote for Trump - "Oh, I hate Trump, I'm voting for Nikki H"
4. BIDEN/HARRIS. An abysmal ticket. Biden is a selfish ass for running. there are a bunch of folks on here talking about how Trump owns the pub party. What about Biden???? He owns the Dems despite being (I think) far less popular amongst them than Trump is among Pubs. Biden/Harris are running against their party's wishes.
5. Total hubris by dems to think all they need is Trump & abortion to win. really dumb

 

The Democrats' bench has several young governors whom I think would be formidable against Trump and who haven't cloaked themselves in stupidity by seeking election to Congress. Andy Beshear of Kentucky and Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan come to mind. Don't know about their willingness to run, but the Dems do have good options on the bench if Biden will get out of the way.

 

As I said on the other thread on this, this poll dramatically oversampled republicans and republican leaners. 900 out of 1500 respondents.

Nothing to see here.

 

Serious question. What do you imagine are their reasons for intentionally over-sampling Republicans?

 

With anything, $$. Trump helped pay for the poll that showed he and Biden were neck and neck. And even this far out, the best Trump can do is pull even with a weighted poll? That's more a bad sign for Trump than it is for Biden.

 

Not remotely surprising. Indictment on the moral quality of our populace.

 

Nonsense national polling. At this point, the only polls that matter are in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. To a lesser degree other state polls that are relevant are Arizona, Georgia and Nevada. Nothing else matters.

 

Yeah, the focus on the horse race isn't new, but it's interesting to me that the article talks about Joe and Hunter's obstacles, but I saw no mention of the sex abuse verdict against Trump, for example.

 

Not surprising to me. I'm cynical. I expect far less than most

 

Cool. Trumps wins and rounds up all his political rivals. Sounds exactly what our Founding Fathers wanted. I would arrest him just for making that threat. He is an existential threat to democracy.

 

And quickly loses when America is faced with the realization of Kamala Harris as POTUS by default.

 

The downside is, according to 538, the democrat usually needs to win by about 3% in the popular vote to overcome the republican electoral college advantage, so neck and neck isn't a good sign. But has been pointed out, this poll has legitimacy questions.

I still think 2024 is going to be way closer than it should be, and that's not good for Biden.

 

Call me in September of 2024. Polling this far out is useless.

 

It's about stupidity as much as anything. Never underestimate the U.S. ability to go full stoopid on a presidential election. I agree with what appears to be a vast majority here who feel that wheeling Biden out again is a huge mistake. There's still a part of me that feels it's all a ruse, but then again, see sentence #2.