How Do We Get To 8 Wins?….7 Wins….6 Wins?

Home game against UT is going to be huge!

 

My season prediction was 4-8 so I think we are right on track.

The second season for a HC SHOULD show a huge improvement.

 

I agree, unfortunately that 2024 schedule is a doozy. If it's not a train wreck, and I mean less than 5 wins I think he's here through 2025 and 2025 is the prove it year. I don't think his seat is even hot this year, Stricklin really needs this hire to work.

 

Vegas set our O/U at 5.5 they make money for a reason. So expectations should be around that number. You can def exceed expectations, but just like last year, don't overreact to week 1 and suddenly believe we will win 10 games like last year. It goes both ways, don't overreact and believe we lose 10 games this year. It's probably going to be somewhere in the middle. I am just as disappointed as anyone with the execution on Thursday, team looked uninspired and unprepared. Can that be fixed in a week, could this team upset Tennessee in 2 weeks, maybe?

Week 1 overreactions 2022 edition.

Oregon loses by 46 to UGA. They must be horrible Dan Lanning in over his head. Won 8 straight games, finished the year 10-3

Miami scored 70, offense clicking TVD Heisman front runner. Finished 5-7 losing to Clemson and fsu by a combine 72 pts.

Do I need to remind anyone of the hype on AR and UF after beating Utah? Both teams seasons went in opposite directions after losing that game.

OU number 9 in the country beat UTEP by 5 TDs. Looked like they picked right back up where they left off under Riley. Nope finished 6-7.

I know Deion stole the show Saturday and what they were able to do was impressive, but is there a chance they lose to Nebraska this weekend? I'd say its not 0, and if they do, is anyone going to be shocked? Some rebuilds take time, and I for one am on board with being patient. Do I want to watch what I watched Thursday night, of course not, but firing up the firenapier website is not the move either.

 

This year I think expectations were low. Almost doesn’t matter. So I agree he won’t be on the hot seat at any point this season (barring something competely crazy).

But hypothetically if we end up 5-7 (or worse), there’s no way that seat isn’t smoking hot heading into 2024. At some point, even while rebuilding, a head coach has to show something tangible. 3 years in is kind of where there are no longer excuses, esp with the portal making fast rebuilds much more tangible.

 

Of course not...

"All of a sudden it's 17-3, 24-3," Florida second-year head coach Billy Napier said Monday, "that affects the approach you take."

But, after reviewing the tape from Florida's demoralizing, season-opening defeat against then-No. 14 Utah, Napier acknowledged a critical flaw in his game plan,
an error in judgement that likely impacted his team's offense before the scoreboard heavily favored one side: He didn't run the ball enough. Not at all.

"I think ultimately, for me, looking back at it, that's something we could have been a little bit more committed to," he said. "There's no doubt about it."

 

I hear you. The brain trust is giving 4 years not 3. 2025 or bust!

 

Its not the fact of losing, its how we looked doing it. So 4-5 wins this year is not out of the realm and if we look like we are improving no issues with BN (though '24 would ultimately be the standard by which he is judged.)

But if we continue to make the same bone-headed and entirely preventable errors we made last Thursday, all bets are off. Losing is one thing, embarrassing yourself in the process quite another.

 

1. Beat your cupcakes.

2. You have to beat teams that have similar talent levels. USC, Miz, and Kentucky.

3. Beat 1 team that is better than you. LSU, FSU, or Tenn. I feel the FSU game is the best chance. We played then pretty well in Tally and now the game is home.

7-5, probably will end up 6-6.

 

I am also guilty of thinking that the Gators could beat Utah even though Utah was favored with or without Cam Rising and between 3-7 other starters (the numbers vary by source). The ESPN FPI was adjusted from week 1 to week 2 to reflect the projection of 5.6 wins, down from last week's projection of 6.8 wins. Edited for readability and sorted from most probable to least probable.

• Tier 1 - 50.0% to 99.9% P(W)
  • McNeese 99.7% --> 99.2% (down 0.5% from last week)
  • Charlotte 96.3% --> 97.8% (up 1.5% from last week)
  • Vanderbilt 90.4% --> 94.0% (up 3.6% from last week)
  • Arkansas 66.2% --> 63.2% (down 3.0% from last week)
  • South Carolina 58.9% --> 53.6% (down 5.3% from last week)
• Tier 2 - 25% to 50% P(W)
  • Edit: Missouri 58.1% —> 47.8% (down 10.3%)
  • Kentucky 48.1% --> 33.8% (down 14.3% from last week)
  • Tennessee 51.7% --> 26.8% (down 24.9% from last week)
• Tier 3 - 0% to 25% P(W)
  • FSU 50.3% --> 22.0% (down 28.3% from last week...I project this will go down to 15% by November)
  • LSU 18.5% --> 18.2% (down 0.3% from last week)
  • Georgia 13.9% --> 7.4% (down 6.5% from last week)
  • Utah 29.7% --> 0.0% (down 29.7% because Florida lost...Utah started in Tier 2, 25% to 50% P(W))

Based on what we know going into week 2, the Gators only have 5 games > 50% win probability): McNeese, Charlotte, and Vanderbilt, South Carolina, and Arkansas. If the Gators are capable of improvement then Tennessee and/or Kentucky are possible wins. I do not see enough improvement to beat Georgia, LSU, and FSU. Call me an optimist, but I think Napier fixes a few issues and gets the team to 6 wins. LSU looked beatable last week, but just like last year I think they get better by the team they face Florida. The coaching, talent, and sheer luck are not there to pull off more than one upset and prevent losing a winnable game here and there.

 

My apologies. My point was more about weak defense leading to fewer plays.

 

We’ve got a better shot at beating Georgia than LSU and FSU ???

 

We will win 2 out the three games with Vanderbilt, South Carolina, and Missouri.

And win one out of two games with Tennessee and Kentucky.

Don’t see use beating LSU, FSU, and Georgia.

 

Anyone got any insight on how the staff is reacting to the play of OL Damieon George in the Utah game and whether a change is in the works prior to SEC games?

 

We are so thin at OT, nothing much behind Damieon George, I suspect we will roll the dice with him.

 

Where's Missouri?

 

Yeah and it'll probably be an 11am kickoff.

 

Folks, guess which team this is?

2017: 4-8
2018: 4-8
2019: 5-7
2020: 3-5
2021: 3-9
2022: 4-8
2023: 0-1

Total: 23-46 (.333)

Hint: They are a Blueblood. Since 2010, they had four head coaches for a 62-77 (.446) record. Their stadium holds 81,091 fans. Florida had five head coaches during that span for a 101-65 (.608) record. Our stadium holds 88,548 fans. Should we be concerned? Absolutely! Should we be panicking? Not yet.

Let's step away from the ledge...

 

We played fairly well at fsu and Tenn last year. We just weren’t good enough to win.

 

Norvell wouldn’t have won 10 with an sec schedule. How many teams did they play that had a realistic shot .