Donald Trump widens lead in 2024 Republican primary field after indictments, new poll says

I am paywalled from the related WSJ article but yeah he’s got a huge lead in the GOP primary. Voting doesn’t start until January 2024 and we will see how that holds. Also have to see how independents are viewing all of it.

 

I’d say both parties have problems on their hands.

 

Trump owns the GOP and the Dems have a problem? Ha. Good one.

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I'm not sure which context you are speaking in, but the GOP has a candidate the voters are very interested in, loyal to and have stuck with him through a bunch of indictments, whereas the Dems have a candidate most Democrat voters think is too old for the job. They are both flawed candidates, but Trump is dangerous because of his loyal following that will inevitably vote with near 100% turnout. The dispassion for Biden is unmistakable. In that context, I would say the Dems have a bigger liability in Biden. We're talking purely in terms of winning 270 or more electoral votes.

 

To remind them:

 

The passion against Trump is equal to the passion for. Biden may not drive people out to vote for him, but Trump will drive people to the polls to vote against him.

Trump has a loyal base, no doubt. But a POTUS candidate can't win on his or her base alone. They need independent and swing voters. Can Trump sway enough of them? Will they stay home?

 

I've made that point so many times. If you somehow put aside all the craziness with Trump and the twitter and the election denying 1/6, stolen classified materials and just the numerous other things. If you somehow put all that aside, he also still didn't accomplish anything as president aside from a tax cut for the wealthy.

 

But he produced this list for the 49.8%, and that is why they ride with the devil.

Trump Administration Accomplishments – The White House

 

While a lot of this is correct a lot of it wasn't for lack of trying. Trump had both the Democrats and the establishment Republicans against him. No President has really had that. Just remember this, McCain (an establishment Republican) was the one who stopped Obamacare from being repealed. Trump did everything he could to get it through, it was establishment Republicans who stopped it. And not because McCain actually believed in Obamacare, he just wanted to give one last middle finger to Trump and all true Conservatives.

Many of you try to say taxes didn't go down. They sure as heck did for me. Not a lot of course but after the tax cuts that were passed my taxes went down around $75/week. As much as corporations? Of course not. But that was still an extra $75/week in my pocket that your side (the Democrats) would love to take away. So don't tell me he didn't cut taxes because he did and I have the paystubs to prove it.

 

The difference this time is Biden can't hide during the campaign. 2020 was completely a referendum on Trump and especially how he handled Covid. I doubt any President would have survived a re-election during Covid. 2024 will be at least a partial referendum on Bide.

Biden in 2020 did not have any real campaign except "I'm not Trump". Not being Trump isn't going to be enough to cut it this time. You will have people who will vote just to vote against Biden.

That's why I wish the Republican nominee would be someone other than Trump. You can then really play the age card, far less people voting just to vote against Trump and most likely more people who vote just to vote against Biden.

 

I agree with most of what you've said in this thread, except this. Trump's support once again is only within a portion of the GOP. If anything he's lost votes because of 1/6, indictments, Covid deaths skewing elderly Republican, etc. I think not being Trump is more than enough for Biden to win again, and is basically the only reason he will win.

 

Trump's party held the presidency, the House and the Senate all at the same time as well as a 5-4 Supreme Court. Any failure to pass anything is on Trump for not knowing how to negotiate.

As for the tax cuts, yes they went down but will expire on 12/31/2025 for all but the rich and big corporations.

 

Trump IS the gop. Get that through your heads.

 

If you actually think back on the repeal, neither side wanted outright repeal and replacement with nothing. However, Republicans couldn't decide what their replacement would be (Trump never came up with one). So they put forward something they called a skinny repeal as a negotiating tool for people within their own caucus (including Trump). If you remember the insanity of that day, the only reason it came down to those last votes and wasn't shot down by about 60 members of the Republican Senate is because they had gotten an assurance from the House that they wouldn't pass it.

Neither Trump nor any other Republican came up with a replacement for ACA because ACA were their policy ideas and, once they were co-opted by Democrats, they were forced to run against the only ideas that they had. Trump never had any policy ideas and it is hard to run against the proposal from the Heritage Foundation and the 1994 Republican alternative, when nobody wanted a return to the prior system (and the pre-existing condition issues).

 

Well, this isn't true. How many presidents have 3 SCOTUS justices confirmed to the bench in a 4 year term? His largest accomplishment was keeping us out of large scale entanglements abroad. He was also able to take out Iran's top general without a firefight. He won that staring contest with the ayatollah easily. He eradicated ISIS. Had the guts to bring our troops home from Syria instead of playing to the neo-con base which has train-wrecked the GOP in the past. The tax cuts are way down on the list, but the increased standard deduction was a boon for most middle class Americans. His economy was on fire until Covid and recaptured fire within 6 months. I mean, he was a pretty good president. I can't think of anything he did that put America behind the 8 ball ala Bush Jr. The tax cuts were necessary to compensate for the injuries the middle class received via Obamacare.

I don't care for his bluster, but he was much more effective than the previous two GOP presidents: Bush Jr and Bush Sr.

 

The majority of Americans dislike Trump. Not only as a president but also as a person. That alone might be enough to carry Biden to another term. If the GOP base wanted to be beat Biden they would nominate another candidate

 

McCain voted the skinny repeal down because his constituents wanted him too. A repeal with no replace would've left tens of thousands of Arizonans without health insurance. And the skinny repeal had only about 40% support in Arizona. Had Trump had a replacement plan, maybe it's a different story.

But never had a plan for anything, other than stirring up hate. Like his Muslim ban, or his anti-Mexican wall rhetoric. Trump conned Middle America into believing her really cared, when Trump himself is more coastal error than any candidates, and doesn't care about anyone but himself. By doing this, Trump created a cult of personality around himself.

The issue with Trump’s electability is anyone not in the cult hates Trump. Anyone who was one in but now out with Trump is called a RINO or traitor. And again, it's difficult to win a national election without support from the middle. Trump's base alone might get him the R nomination, but how many non-Trumpers will vote for Trump?

 

The elephant in the room nobody seems to want to acknowledge is RFK Jr. taking his candidacy third party. You can see that coming. He will use the fact Biden would not debate him as a rationale for it and he will end up shaving 5% of the Biden vote off, which will have a huge impact. Biden did not have this problem to contend with in 2020.

 

Biden did benefit from the different style of campaign during Covid IMO. Biden has never sold out arenas or had lots of groupies.

But it should also be noted that they had two head to head debates. As I recall, the polls indicated most viewers thought Biden won. Perhaps part of it was Republicans inadvertently skewed expectations by mocking Biden, saying he was incoherent, scared and hiding in his basement. That might have backfired.

 

Yep, mocking your opponent's ability to debate pre-debate is a real good way to look like the loser afterwards. Also, Trump's decision to skip one of the debates wasn't a good look.