I had not seen this update yet. You wonder if Russia is trying to encircle that pocket to the east of Robotyne, with the amount of resources Ukraine has in that area.
Agreed. And it’s even worse than that in terms of analysis. You want to separate Russia from China? Keep doing what we’re doing with progressively more military pressure. Russia’s value to China will steadily decrease. But if you think that giving away something to Russia (which isn’t ours to give or Russia’s to accept) is going to satisfy Russia’s appetite and make them say, “Sure, we no longer need the partner who kept us in supply so you would give us what we want,” then maybe foreign affairs isn’t your game. I would say this is even dumber than Jake Sullivan’s liberal internationalist assumptions (for which he still hasn’t been held accountable by the way) that making Ukraine weaker would make Russia lose interest in them or that Russia wouldn’t risk our economic sanctions. Both parties clearly still need a strong dose of Realism, and if this war wasn’t the impetus for that, I don’t know what would be.
If China wants its economy to recover, they will align with Europe and the U.S., and not with Russia. Of course, breaking away from Russia is only one condition that China must meet to regain western business--other conditions include: stop threatening its neighbors with invasion and respect internationally-recognized boundaries and laws.
Moscow missile plant gets droned and catches fire. Moscow missile plant ablaze in apparent drone attack
More showing off by Ukraine: one drone hits a triple, knocking out a T-80 tank, a self-propelled howitzer, and a bridge-laying tank. Brutal. Near Bakhmut, fighters destroyed Russian equipment worth over US$5 million using one drone
An interesting article about why Russian tanks are being destroyed by the thousands, while western tanks are largely surviving battles with light damage. Western tanks are first designed to protect the crew, and then provide mobility and firepower. Russian tank design basically believes that the crew is expendable, so priority is traditionally given to firepower and mobility. The T-14 Armata was supposed to address this issue, but still came up short. Russians do not understand how to design something around ergonomic issues. Ukraine: The Latest - Why Russian tanks are falling short of their Western counterparts
Some of Ukraine's most effective fighters are . . . Russians. From the Russian equivalent of the American Volunteer Group, a.k.a., the Russian Volunteer Corps. They are apparently responsible for destroying much of the Russian military aircraft inside of Russia. Russian Volunteer Corps says it attacked warplanes in Russia's Kursk Oblast together with Ukraine's Security Service
Russia is moving much of its military hardware, including air defense systems, from the Kuril Islands to the Ukraine War. Things must be getting desperate for Putin to leave his east coast essentially unguarded. The hardware includes at least two S-300 SAM systems. Russia has moved missiles off isles disputed with Japan: expert
An article on why Ukraine's drone attacks are much more successful than Russia's. Russia seems to be using drones for revenge attacks on the civilian population of Ukraine. Ukraine is using them for attacks on Russia's ability to wage war, disrupting logistics and supply lines in particular. The reason Ukraine’s drone attacks are more effective than Russia’s
You still aren’t embracing Realism. The PRC government is not interested in the rule-based order you are offering.
The U.S. is going to start sending depleted uranium rounds to Ukraine. More Russian tanks are expected to bite the dust. I'm not sure it's necessary. It seems like anything more powerful than a BB-gun can take out a Russian tank. But if it helps the war go faster, I'm all for it. Exclusive-U.S. to send its first depleted uranium rounds to Ukraine -sources
I understand that. But I think that by the time China finishes suffering through their economic problems after trying every other possible solution, they will re-think their position on this and make some changes. China is going to have to hit rock bottom before they conclude that a change in policy is needed. It will be after Xi leaves office, and possibly his successor. The key will be consistency from U.S. and European leaders. That means keeping mental defectives like Ramaswamy out of office.
Ukraine has a new weapon for Russia to think about. No, not land sharks. Think: land drones. Remote-controlled Terminators. These aren't food delivery robots like you are used to seeing in the old days--that's so 2022. These are the real deal. Ukraine showed off experimental new land drones, including one mounted with a turret
Ukraine's Bradley fighting vehicles are so tough that Ukraine lets them shoot at each other during training. Russia's tanks are so fragile that tank commanders are not allowed to look at another Russian tank lest the tank fall apart under duress. O.k., I made the second part up . . . Probably. Ukraine Situation Report: Wild Video Shows Bradley Blasting Another In Training
First Ukrainian crews complete their Abrams tank training. Tanks could be on the battlefield in a couple weeks. First Ukrainian M1 Abrams Tank Crews Complete Training Bonus: picture of an Abrams with a mine roller.
Actually, China is very much interested in rule-based order. They just think that they should be making the rules. In the past, no country has stood up to China, so they believed that they would be allowed to do what they want when their economy got big enough. It will take a decade or two of failure before they re-think that position. What they don't seem to realize is that the U.S. became the world leader after WWII by not only being the largest economy, but also by working with other countries to set up rules that everyone benefited from. The U.S. didn't just dictate their rules to everyone else and take what they want from the rest of the world. It was a little shaky at first, with the U.S. using the CIA to covertly support U.S. businesses in other countries and overthrow governments, but we were able to get past that. We moved beyond the imperial mind set. China is still in an imperial mind set, just like Russia.
Ukraine destroys four Il-76 jumbo transport aircraft at a military airport 400 miles north of Ukraine. These planes are used both to move troops and equipment to and from the middle east and the east coast, as well as drones and other hardware from Iran. 4 Giant Russian Cargo Jets Just Went Up in Flames 400 Miles From Ukraine
Are foreign mercenaries tired of dying ? “You wouldn't know it by reading sensationalized western media reports and propaganda, but Ukraine is losing, badly. So what happened? What changed since the end of 2022? One potential explanation is the sheer number of foreign fighters joining with Ukraine last year that are now gone.” Failed Counter-Offensive: Is Ukraine Losing Because Foreign Fighters Are Walking Away? | ZeroHedge
I was actually thinking about exactly this just before I read this post. Russia is trying to run a terror campaign by targeting civilian targets (which in my opinion is having the opposite effect they hoped for) while Ukraine is degrading Russia's ability to fight by targeting their military assets and military production abilities. Putin and Russia are paying a huge price for their aggression. I just have to laugh at Trump's initial assessment of what a genius move it was by Putin to invade. Even if they manage to eventually take and hold some land, they will have produced generations of anti-Russian terrorists who look just like them and speak their language. Not exactly something I'd be excited about.
