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  1. Hi there... Can you please quickly check to make sure your email address is up to date here? Just in case we need to reach out to you or you lose your password. Muchero thanks!

BLS reports need to change

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by surfn1080, Sep 1, 2023.

  1. surfn1080

    surfn1080 Premium Member

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    BLS report came in this morning. Not looking good. As I have said for a long time now, jobs are always the last domino to fall.

    BLS report uses certain models that have made job numbers look stronger than reality.

    For example, June came out at 209k jobs initially. Now it's been revised to 105k.

    BLS has become a political tool. We can't rely on this data anymore, unfortunately.

    To make it worse, we have lost over 600k full-time workers but gained over 1 million part-time workers.

    If there is any silver lining in this report, it's that the participation rate went up a smidgen.
     
    Last edited: Sep 1, 2023
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  2. mdgator05

    mdgator05 Premium Member

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    This is flat not true. For example, December 2022 went from 223k in the first report to 239k in the last. 7 months in 2022 saw revisions up. If you go back to 24 months, as you claimed, you would add 6 more, meaning that 13 of the last 24 months have been revised up.

    Nonfarm Payroll Employment: Revisions between over-the-month estimates, 1979-present
     
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  3. gatorchamps960608

    gatorchamps960608 GC Hall of Fame

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    This is some kind of alternative reality thread just like the OP's banging on about Hillary's emails.

    The US added 187k jobs in August, higher than expected and in line with 2017-19 growth averages.
     
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  4. WarDamnGator

    WarDamnGator GC Hall of Fame

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    Very Trumpian of the OP. Remember when Trump used to call Obama's excellent numbers "the fake jobs report" ... then when he got his first jobs report, he called it "very real", and then never talked about it again... LOL.

    If Trump were still president, and the numbers the same, this OP never gets posted ... guaranteed.
     
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  5. mutz87

    mutz87 p=.06

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    Yes, revised. Standard practice for decades as the BLS receives more data that comes in after they've published the monthly numbers. Usually this means they'll revise the prior two months numbers. And often it is revised downward--and it's not impossible for a long string of downward revisions. The models are based on the data at hand, not to make it "look stronger than reality" or as a political tool.
     
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  6. surfn1080

    surfn1080 Premium Member

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    Sorry, you are correct. I was looking at 12-sigma data points and didn't understand it correctly. The statement has been removed.
    We have had 6 months straight of negative revision with 7th looking like that will continue.
    Thank you for pointing that out.
     
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  7. surfn1080

    surfn1080 Premium Member

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    Thank you for making my point. lol
    It doesn't matter who is in office, use the headline print but then when the month is revised by 100k jobs a couple months later while no one is looking...
     
  8. surfn1080

    surfn1080 Premium Member

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    Yes adding 1 million part time jobs while LOSING 600k full-time jobs is great... I swear our country is screwed because everyone is party first.

    Jan-June was revised lower over 345k jobs.

    Credit card debt is over 1 trillion and savings are plummeting to 2007 levels.
    Personal Saving Rate
    [​IMG]

    All is fineeeee
     
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  9. citygator

    citygator VIP Member

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    We are in peak employment. Numbers are not going up from here much so I am not sure what the OP's point is. Job's are the last domino to fall? What was the first domino to fall?
     
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  10. VAg8r1

    VAg8r1 GC Hall of Fame

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    In case anyone may have forgotten:
    19 times Trump called jobs numbers ‘fake’ before they made him look good
    Spicer claims that jobs numbers ‘may have been phony’ before, but now they’re ‘very real’
    Keep in the mind that the numbers before and after Trump took office were developed by the same agency (the Bureau of Labor Statistics) and by the same labor market economists and statisticians using the same methodology.
     
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  11. citygator

    citygator VIP Member

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    People save when they are concerned about the economy as you can see in the chart. People say they are concerned about the economy but spending is strong. Same people telling us that all is doomed have been saying that for 3 years now. At some point there will be some pull back but most are no longer suggesting a recession this year. My guess is if Biden isnt reelected youll like the economy again and see fewer signs of the apocalypse.
     
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  12. danmanne65

    danmanne65 GC Hall of Fame

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    My 23 year old son works three part time jobs and about 50 hours a week. He just finished a welding program and his “real job” starts in about another 6 weeks.
     
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  13. dangolegators

    dangolegators GC Hall of Fame

    Apr 26, 2007
    Where are you getting the adding 1 million part time jobs vs losing 600k full-time jobs? Not saying it's incorrect, just want to see the data. As for the bolded part, irony.
     
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  14. mutz87

    mutz87 p=.06

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    Revisons aren't some surreptitious effort to adjust the numbers while no one is looking, it's standard practice that the BLS is up front about. See here, here and here for some examples.

    It's your choice to be misinformed.
     
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  15. WarDamnGator

    WarDamnGator GC Hall of Fame

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    Probably from a Facebook meme that MTG reposted, or something ... Joe Biden has already set the record for job growth in a single term, and he's less than 3/4 of the way through ...

    US economy has added 13 million jobs during President Joe Biden's first term (americanindependent.com)
     
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  16. WarDamnGator

    WarDamnGator GC Hall of Fame

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    Here are the actual graphs from FRED set to Jan 2021, when Biden took office ... full time and part time ... I'm going to put my degree in algebra to use, here, and say they both are up by millions, and about 3-4 times as many full jobs to part time jobs have been created ....

    Facts Trump Facebook memes.

    upload_2023-9-1_11-8-42.png


    upload_2023-9-1_11-9-39.png
     
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  17. dangolegators

    dangolegators GC Hall of Fame

    Apr 26, 2007
    Thanks. Yeah I found the data on the BLS site. Full time jobs are up 1.6 million since the start of 2023, but there has been a decline of 670k in the last 3 months. And of course full time jobs are up 9 million since Biden took office, which must cause surfn1080 a great deal of distress.
     
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  18. WarDamnGator

    WarDamnGator GC Hall of Fame

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    I modified the chart, then, to help the OP demonstrate his point.

    upload_2023-9-1_11-40-22.png
     
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  19. gatorchamps960608

    gatorchamps960608 GC Hall of Fame

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    31 straight months of job growth under Dark Brandon.

    Increased PT job growth over the summer is likely due to youth employment.
     
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  20. danmanne65

    danmanne65 GC Hall of Fame

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    He kind of likes it. He is still covered under his mom’s insurance. He gets 6 paychecks a month and his landlord is a softy.