I promised you more when I had time. Yes, to answer your first question, MacGregor is working for Russia. Does that mean he knows he’s working for Russia or is profiting off of facilitating misinformation? No idea. I would like to think not. Whatever else he is, he still served his country for a long time. But there are too many distortions, exaggerations, and deliberately misleading statements in his narrative for it to be strictly a coincidence. Let’s start with your two counterpoints. I told you that Russia does not have the non-engaged reserve in Ukraine that MacGregor implies, and you came back with the true but irrelevant claim that they have not committed their entire armed force to the Ukraine war. No one ever said they had. What you are speaking of in rough terms is called a strategic reserve. Yes, Russia has lots of military held back, including the forces needed to train, equip, and man the Ukraine war machine; protect the bases; watch over the vassal states; protect Moscow from other elements of the military; be prepared for social unrest, especially in the Transural provinces; and so on. That strategic reserve also includes the elements of the population (butchers, bakers, and candlestick makers) who have not yet been called up. But that isn’t what MacGregor was implying. He was implying an operational reserve, meaning an unengaged force, fully stood up, in or near the battle area, postured to enter the fight on order. That does not exist. We know it. So does MacGregor know this, too, and he’s intentionally misleading you that the strategic reserve is an operational reserve? Or is he an idiot who does not understand the difference despite 30 years of service and a War College education? You tell me. And the whole why of this phantom operational reserve is just silly to anyone in the know: it’s in case NATO comes into the war. BS. NATO isn’t coming into the war. Russia knows this. And MacGregor knows it, too. So why say something you know is not true? That goes strictly to the information effect Russia is trying to achieve. Second, he stated categorically that our munitions industry is at max capacity. He didn’t leave room for error or surge like you did. He stated that we could not produce one more Javelin per day than we are if we wanted to. That is not simply not true. I can’t and won’t get into the specifics. The Administration does have that power and has not exercised it. Personally, I think they should have, just like I think they also should have used their lawful power to increase food and fuel production last year. But all three of those decisions would cause different, unrelated political problems that the Administration has placed over the war effort. That’s within their authority. But despite what MacGregor says, he knows the production capability is there (unless he was, like, absent for that week of his senior service education) and he publicly said it didn’t exist. There’s no misunderstanding there. On that topic he’s either lying or an idiot. So why? He also repeats that Russian trope that “history didn’t begin in February 2022.” Again, true but irrelevant. No one said that it did. It also didn’t begin in September 2001, December 1941, September 1939, or April 1861. The aggressors in all of those cases also had real and proximate causes for doing what they did. Hell, I think their narratives might have been even better: at least Hitler never said with a straight face he was trying to “de-Nazify” Poland. I could go on. I made at least 10 notes from the interview where I said out loud, “You stupid [unenlightened person]!” But I’ll save additional points for follow-on posts on the subject. I’m getting exhausted. I will just close by referencing my earlier post on the true butcher’s bill. Of all parties involved, Russia has the most incentive to lie about casualties, and the greatest amount of evidence by far of a party minimizing its own count and exaggerating the other side’s falls against Russia. Yet MacGregor cites the Russian casualty count as the one we should take as gospel. And I’m supposed to take him seriously as a military analyst? Please.
Most successful attack to date – ex-head of Finnish intelligence about attack on Pskov (msn.com) Pekka Toveri, Former head of the Main Directorate of military intelligence of Finland, called Ukraine's attack at Pskov airfield the most successful today. "If the initial reports of four destroyed aircraft are true, this will be the most successful attack by Ukraine to date. This number will immediately impact Russian activities," Toveri said. He believes the attack will force Russia to act, and the Russian Federation will be forced to move aircraft from its usual bases. Or Russia will have to invest heavily in protecting airfields, the politician believes. This would mean Russia would have to withdraw anti-aircraft equipment from the contact zone.
Terribly on both counts. And they don’t seem to be trying to hide it. Even when they get things wrong it seems to come from a place of optimism rather than trying to hide the truth. I find that interesting. You should, too. Of course, the real measure is not how it’s going but how it’s going relative to Russia. Things can change, but presently that seems to be in Ukraine’s favor. I don’t see them threatening to do things. They just do them. Unless your “you” is plural, you’ve got me mistaken for someone else. I have never predicted when or even if Russian domestic turmoil would hit a boiling point that would critically undermine its war effort. Certainly, I want it to, but that’s not the same thing. And I’ve certainly assessed that this is Ukraine’s strategy, but that’s almost a no-brainer. They have no feasible alternatives. They can surrender to one extent or another (unacceptable to their people), try a desperate gamble to take back their land though decisive offensive action (not feasible), or do what they are doing and try to win eventually by making Russia quit the war one way or the other. Even that might not work, but it is their best bet. The Putin regime has a similar dilemma. They can’t quit the war in a way that smells like a loss; the regime would fall. They can’t win through military means; they’ve tried and failed. Their best bet is to get the West to stop supporting the war and force a peace on Ukraine that they can sell as glorious win back home. So, in fairness, I think Russia, too, is also doing the wisest thing they can, given the realistic means available to them.
stupid games swiss company owns tanks but legislature will not allow them to be sold to Germany so Germany can refurb and provide to Ukraine solution - Greece gives Ukraine tanks. Germany buys swiss tanks and gives them to Greece. Ukraine still gets tanks just not as upgraded still requires swiss legislature approval To Free Up Another Hundred Leopard 1 Tanks For Ukraine, German Diplomats Are Getting Creative (msn.com)
Ukrainian defenders hit Russian Solntsepyok heavy MLRS – General Staff report (msn.com) Ukrainian Defence Forces struck a TOS-1A Solntsepyok heavy multiple-launch rocket system, four anti-aircraft missile systems and nine clusters of Russian military personnel over the past day.
The revolts begin! Hundreds of Russian soldiers are refusing to fight. About a hundred a week are going AWOL. U.S. officials believe that 120,000 Russians have died in the war, meaning that the overall number of casualties is probably close to a half million for Russia. Hundreds of Russian soldiers are going AWOL and refusing to fight as morale plummets, UK intelligence says
Once again, I think you are being very sanguine on this. I don’t think this is really happening … yet. But what is true is that Russia is very, very worried that it might happen. And they have taken measures in the field that, yes, mitigate the probability of rebellion but also detract from what they are trying to accomplish militarily. I would also note that Ukraine has not had and does not seriously fear a rebellion from their own military. This despite terrible, grievous sacrifice that Americans have not had to seriously contemplate since — what? — the 1860s. What should that tell our friends who propose against all evidence that Russia is getting ready to win, any day now, and Ukraine should quit now?
Now Ukraine is just showboating: destroying a Russian helicopter with artillery. The helicopter, which was on the ground, was an Mi-24 "Flying Tank". This appears to be the sixth Mi-24 destroyed for Russia. Ukraine says its soldiers took out a Russian helicopter with artillery fire
Russia's glorious sales of oil to India come back to haunt it. Russia has sent $30 billion worth of oil & oil products to India, but only been able to purchase about $6-7 billion worth of Indian food and plastic bowls. The rest of their money is stuck in rupees in India. This is causing some serious economic problems in a country starving for cash for its pathetic economy. Former Kremlin official blames the ruble's crash on Russia's stockpile of rupees that's stranded in India
At the cost of horrific losses Ukraine close to capturing this … https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch...48-ee77-4194-aba1-061fb327deb8_3516x1970.jpeg
Fanaticism-based tragedy on a grand scale … In particular, however, Ukraine cannot win a positional-attritional war because of its own maximalist definition of “winning.” Since Kiev has insisted that it will not give up until it returns its 1991 borders, an inability to dislodge Russian forces poses a particularly nasty problem - Kiev will either need to admit defeat and acknowledge Russian control over the annexed areas, or it will continue to fight obstinately until it is a failed state with nothing left in the tank. Escaping Attrition: Ukraine Rolls the Dice
The Russian ruble continues to drop, causing more and more Russian citizens to cut back on non-essentials like food and toothpaste. Soap? Forget it. The ruble is failing — and now more Russians are cutting back on buying basic goods like food and toothpaste as prices jump
this has been building. India is dissing Putin and yet Putin keeps selling them oil, although the volumes have dropped as the revenue remains stranded in rupees.
Ukraine confirms it was a himars that took out Putin's $315 M radar station. give them the atacms already and let them extend these targeted body blows much deeper into Crimea and even Russian air force bases Incredible Moment Ukraine Obliterates Putin’s $315 Million Radar Station With US-Made HIMARS Missile (msn.com) Knewz.com is reporting that the radar system, known as the Predel-E, was destroyed by high-precision HIMARS missiles, manufactured and donated by the United States. Dramatic drone footage has since emerged showing the moment when equipment was obliterated in a pinpoint strike by Volodymyr Zelensky's forces. According to The Sun, the radar system was said to be resting in the Port of Zaliznyi in the Russian-occupied Kherson region. The drone footage shows plumes of black smoke billowing into the air after the HIMARS missiles hit their mark, reducing the mobile unit to a charred metal skeleton. The attack not only destroyed the Predel-E but also took out a Leer-2 electronic warfare system that was meant to protect the radar.
You have credentials and a feed of info, thank you for your service, but at a macro level, I would say your information is just as much American disinformation as Macgregor's is Russian disinformation. If we look back over the centuries, particularly the 20th and 21st centuries, world empires simply do not invade other nations and commit all of their operational reserve to one front. The Russians are known for being an extremely paranoid society. You may believe NATO won't put boots on the ground, but the Russians believe it just as strongly that they will. At worst, the most incompetent generals at the Russian MoD are going to assume a worst-case scenario where NATO sends troops into Ukraine. Russia is simply not going to commit all stand-up ready forces to Ukraine when they have so much exposure in Europe. That would be tantamount to a suicide and durable world empires don't commit suicide. They may lose a war, but it's not going to be because they put all their eggs into one basket one year into a war. That's where I lose you, because at a macro level, if you were in Putin's seat, you have to at least plan for a NATO direct intervention. All signs point to that direction. The arming of Kyiv under false pretenses seals it. And if you're in Putin's seat and you're wrong about said NATO direct intervention, what's the worst that can happen? You had a reserve army ready to go and they weren't needed. Everybody goes home happy. Even if I had American intelligence whispering in my ear that Russia has no operational reserve being held back for Ukraine, I'd still assume they were wrong and err on the side of common sense. That's from my comfy chair in good ole USA, so you have to assume Putin is going to at least err on that same side as well.
Perspective just wants to take away our fun … SITREP 8/30/23: Ukraine Smokescreens Failures With Meaningless Deep-strikes
Which NATO countries are mobilizing their military, calling up reserve units, and massing troops and equipment on their eastern borders? I'm curious. I don't see any signs that any part of NATO is planning a direct intervention. If you do, why don't you tell us about these signs? Or are these signs just Russian propaganda? As far as what is the worst that can happen? Russia could lose the war in Ukraine if it is holding back capable troops for an intervention that has no chance of happening. If that happens, I'm fairly certain that Putin won't go home happy. What you think from your comfy seat in good ole USA is not what a dictator should be thinking from the hot seat in the Kremlin. Even if Russia is not in an existential conflict, Putin knows full well that he is in an existential conflict, meaning that losing in Ukraine will likely precipitate his funeral. It is fairly obvious that Putin's plan is to prevent NATO direct intervention, by using lackeys to threaten the west with nuclear weapons. (This was Plan B, because Plan A was to complete the invasion of Ukraine so fast that the west would not have time to mobilize.) If that doesn't work, his backup plan is to make up a new plan (or start using nuclear weapons). So far, Europe has been very happy with the results of their strategy to arm Ukraine, and has shown little interest in escalating or expanding the conflict. Most countries are only talking about expanding their defense budget in the coming years. Hardly a sign of imminent invasion.
For weeks: Ukraine taking Robotyne. Last week: Ukraine takes Robotyne. Yesterday: Ukraine loses Robotyne.
Republican Ramaswamy wants to give occupied Ukrainian territories to Russia in exchange for "a promise" from Putin that he will break ties with China. Presumably this would also include a promise to not invade any more of Ukraine. What an idiot! Only a fool would expect Putin to be true to his word, and would give anything based on a promise from Putin. I can see that the Swamy plans on getting his education on international affairs at the knee of Vladimir Putin. How would this dim bulb prevent Russia and China from having a secret alliance, or working through intermediaries like North Korea? I'm sure he would think differently after a few humiliating spankings from ol' Vlad, but by then it will be too late. Vivek Ramaswamy vows to let Russia keep occupied Ukraine in exchange for split from China Hopefully, this lightweight Neville Chamberlain will never get near the Oval Office.
Yeah I heard him say this in a podcast interview. What a ridiculous plan. One, do you actually believe Putin? Two do you really think he’d just break off relations with China because we asked? Three, after all the Putin invading, marauding and killing, we just kiss and make up? What a tool.
