Not happening unfortunately The end game will be expanded playoffs and possibly even conferences having their own 4 team playoff.
ACC expansion: Conference renews discussions to add Stanford, California, SMU at reduced price, per reports
ACC presidents schedule meeting on expansion with vote to add Stanford, Cal, SMU possible, per reports
I have little doubt the ACC could and probably should take Cal and Stanford (and maybe even SMU), but I'm not really sure how anyone thinks those schools are going to generate $72 million in additional TV revenue for the ACC. Sure they can probably add a late night game at Cal or Stanford each week if they alternate their schedules, but how big is the TV audience going to be? Neither school has a major football fan following and how many ACC fans are going to stay up to watch a 10pm start? It's going to be the very loyal ACC fans.
Why should they take them? The ONLY reason I see to take them is if they allow the ACC to generate + revenue to the schools that currently exist. There is only one way I see to do that: Only allow those schools to enter at a decreased payout such that the current teams get more $$ per school. That will leave a mess down the line and only serve to get schools that want to leave now closer to end of the current GOR. The ONLY school that could tip the scales to stabilize the ACC at this point is ND and that doesn't look like its happening.
Well if they do not expand they run the risk of: 1. losing teams 2. Not being involved with the B10/SEC which is turning into NFL/AFL format
Helps them keep pace with the big12 in the 2nd tier. Obviously the ACC will still fall apart in about 10 years but this helps keep them alive.
They aren't going to be involved whether they take those teams or not and unless structured for less payout to the new teams will only split the limited revenue further. Do they really think ESPN will pony up extra cash for those 3 teams? There is a reason that 2 of the 3 are scraps of the last Big 10 raid. I don't think this will do anything to mitigate the loss of teams anyway. If the Big 10 or SEC comes calling for teams like UM, UNC, FSU, NCSt, or Clemson, they will be gone in heartbeat and the ACC will still be left with chopped liver to work with.
Because they've been passed over by the Big-12 and are now arguably the #4 conference. The Big-10, SEC and Big-12 have all gotten stronger while the ACC has done nothing. They have got to do something. The question is what can they do? Notre Dame isn't joining the ACC. This is kind of like the last time the ACC had to expand in 2013 just to the illusion of keep up. The best options they could find were Pitt, Syracuse and Louisville (all metro schools) but they had to take them. They thought that would get them carriage for their TV network but metro schools don't do that. They messed that up. But now they really can't afford to pass on an opportunity to take a big public land grant university in a big state with enrollment of over $45K. Even though it's not a football hotbed, getting a school like Cal is an opportunity that will never come to the ACC again. Stanford only has 17K enrollment but it has such a great academic reputation that I think the ACC needs to take them too. SMU I'm not so sure about. Small school but it does get the ACC into Texas. Personally, I think the ACC will pass on SMU. I think that ship has already sailed. It's the SEC and Big-10 at the top level and the Big-12 and ACC are now second tier conferences. There may be a small handful of schools that will be pulled up by the SEC and Big-10 but the ACC and Big-12 as conferences are no longer part of the equation.
I believe they are negotiating much lower payouts with all 3 teams. I believe I read SMU is offering to take ZERO money for 8 years! Presumedly because they have no other alternatives to get into a second tier conference. And I believe Cal and Stanford would get $7-10M for a period from the ACC, which is more than the alternative of $4M from MWC. Going independent would be a real crapshoot, which is their only other alternative. As I mentioned, the West coast teams would give the ACC a 10pm game to sell, so there would be additional revenue for the conference, but since its a late start and most of the ACC fans would be asleep before halftime, it's not going to be a huge revenue increase. If I recall, the ACC believes adding Cal and Stanford would generate an additional $30 million (which I question), so the current ACC members would in theory split $10-15M. Of course FSU and Clemson would want it all for themselves. I agree that this is a temporary band aid.
The Bay Area in CA is a college sports dead spot. It's really pathetic, but there are probably more Raiders fans in the area than CAL, Stanford, and San Jose State fans combined...and the Raiders left for Vegas a few years ago. Both CAL and Stanford have great academics, and Stanford always does well in the All Sports trophy. That's because they have a huge athletics endowment that pays for them to compete in almost every sport the NCAA offers. And Stanford being Stanford takes the best athletes in the Olympic Sports that can get into Stanford. CAL on the other hand is an athletics mess. They owe millions on a stadium upgrade that was needed to make the stadium earthquake proof. Athletically, the school doesn't add too much at this point. Used to have decent basketball, but the days of Jason Kidd are long gone. Not sure how much Stanford and CAL would add to the ACC, especially given the extra travel. Late night games attended by 20k fans that features Duke at CAL isn't going to be very attractive for anyone. The B1G with the LA and PNW schools, and the BIG12 with the 4-corner schools will offer much better late night content. I'm also not sure if the AFC/NFC model will ever come to pass at this point. The B1G has the top 4 schools on the west coast. If ESPN wants west coast content, they can get plenty out of the BIG12 and not have to pay SEC prices for it. And while football drives the majority of the revenue, basketball is still profitable; especially March Madness. And the BIG12 will have a bunch of really great basketball schools like Kansas and Arizona, plus plenty of recent success programs like Baylor and Houston. If the SEC and B1G want to lock the BIG12 out of the college football playoffs, the BIG12 can put a big monkey wrench into March Madness. It would be a lose-lose situation.
Doesn’t look like it’s gonna happen. 1 more ACC expansion member backs out of adding Stanford, Cal and SMU to the Atlantic amid rumors of possible Big 12 intervention: Reports
I don't disagree but at this point it's what else can any of these parties do? The ACC has to do something and for Cal and Stanford, MWC or going independent probably isn't a realistic option. The ACC is probably their best option to stay somewhat relevant. I agree that the Big-10 will have better late night offerings. The Big-12 and ACC will be fighting for the second level. That's why I think the ACC's expectation of $30M is revenue is probably unrealistic. But don't underestimate the value of TV interest in a late night game with Notre Dame, UNC, FSU, Clemson, VT, NCSU or Miami. That would potentially be on par with most Big-12 games. Agree here too. We don't really know what the end game is for the SEC, Big-10 and CFP. I'm not really following how the Big-12 is going to put a wrench into March Madness. I believe the SEC and Big-12 will probably leave the NCAA for football and set up their own governing entity outside the NCAA. I see the expansion actions of the SEC and Big-12 in the last couple of decades largely as a reaction to what the NCAA has done to college football, pushing to give upstart programs, like UCF, an equal seat at the table as the college football blue bloods. Whatever form that takes, the NCAA will probably not dictate the endgame for SEC and Big-10 in football. But I believe the SEC and Big-10 will more than likely stay in the NCAA for basketball. To your point, while the Big-12 has an impressive line-up of basketball programs, I don't see that they would have the power or means to influence March Madness.
This would be funny and clearly put the ACC in the Big-12's rear view mirror. I could see it happening and it probably makes more sense logistically. I'm just not sure why if the Big-12 saw Cal and Stanford as viable additions, why didn't they take them with the four corners. And they had zero interest in Oregon State or Wazzu. Maybe the equation is different knowing they'd probably just have to offer them the same reduced revenue deal the ACC was offering.
The BIG12 had a clause that they could add 4 P5 teams at a pro-rata who would get a full BIG12 TV share. The 4-corner PAC schools took up these slots. Anyone else the BIG12 adds, P5 or not, will not be getting a full share of the TV money. This is one of the reasons CAL/Stanford would prefer the ACC. The other reason is academics. The BIG12 has 5 AAU schools, Kansas, and the 4 former PAC schools it just added (ASU was just added to the AAU this summer) Oregon St and WAZZU have even less value for the BIG12. Corvallis isn't that difficult to get to from Portland, but Pullman is a pain. It's in the middle of nowhere, and quite the distance from Orlando and Morgantown. As much as I enjoy the Beavers and WSU Cougs, they are likely destined for the Mountain West or AAC. As for March Madness, if the B1G and SEC break away from football, the BIG12 could lead a revolt for basketball. No teams playing in MM, and if the ACC agrees with the BIG12, then you have MM without Kansas, Arizona, Baylor, Houston, Duke, Syracuse, and more. I would imagine the G5 programs don't want to be completely locked out of college football playoffs either, and would potentially join in the MM boycott. A college football playoffs with just SEC and B1G teams might work. But March Madness with just these two conferences? Not going to work. College football revenues versus basketball is likely in the range of 3:1, but that puts the B1G and SEC at around $14 to $15 million a year from basketball. Lose MM and that revenue will not be matched with football money. I think BIG12 Commissioner Yormack understands this, which is why he put the full press on to add Arizona, which is the biggest basketball program out of the 4-corner PAC schools by far. The more top basketball programs the BIG12 have, the more leverage it has in my opinion.
