In Tampa. Hillsborough County order. Normally we get these orders in advance, but they must have been a bit blindsided by this track.
I don’t think this is terrible advice. Flood is a killer. This was, in fact, our plan before the storm was projected to intensify so much. We also have little kids.
Ah, thanks. And good luck again. I looked a bit ago and saw some mandatory orders in Pinellas and Pasco. Flood zones and mobile homes.
5:00 p.m. shift West with intensification. It can change again. But this is a little bit better news for Tampa
on that track, water would be pushed from the southwest to the northeast on the right side of the storm-- into Tampa Bay. And, we are heading toward the full moon.
Only saving grace is high tide would be 1pm on Tuesday, and not again until 2pm Wednesday. Peak surge is likely to be overnight, coinciding with low and intermediate tides. St Pete tide chart: Tide Predictions - NOAA Tides & Currents
Mike has been talking about the full moon effect. But we would have had that directional water push on old track as well, but with more intensity. Definitely not out of the woods, and it could shift back. But much less impact if it's on that track
I remember when Irma hit Cudjoe Key, and devastated the utilities and economy for weeks, even months. My brother-in-law lives there, and they broiled in the heat, had to rely on bottled water...I wanted them to come up here to hurricane-free Virginia for a visit, but after a 3 day evacuation to Miami, they were back, clearing debris.
It is forecasted to start moving at about 17 mph overnight. Even at 15 mph, that's covering 720 miles in 48 hours. Gainesville to Cancun is 662 miles and it's probably already closer in range than that.
I still have this THFSG classic from last year, which I still think is one of the most clever posts ever on here. 9-28-22
The NHC said that it is moving north at 8 mph. It has said that same speed since Sunday morning. Even if it was 24 hours that is 192 miles. Should be north of Cuba and much closer to Florida than it is. Unless they don't really know how fast it's moving.
This is from the 5 pm advisory FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 21.4N 85.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 22.7N 85.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 24.9N 85.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 27.6N 84.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 30.4N 82.9W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND 60H 31/0600Z 32.7N 80.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 72H 31/1800Z 34.0N 76.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 01/1800Z 34.1N 71.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 02/1800Z 34.0N 69.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
...IDALIA ALMOST A HURRICANE NEAR THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DANGEROUS WINDS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.7N 85.1W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Aucilla River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...8-12 ft Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-9 ft Ochlockonee River, FL to Aucilla River, FL...5-8 ft Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...4-7 ft Tampa Bay...4-7 ft Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...3-5 ft Englewood, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...2-4 ft Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...3-5 ft Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee, SC...2-4 ft Chokoloskee, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...1-3 ft Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Mouth of St. Mary's River...1-3 ft Indian Pass to Mexico Beach...1 to 3 ft. Florida Keys...1-2 ft
