Look at tropical tidbits Sunday video. Levi has a good explanation. Basically low and high pressure fronts creating a tunnel for Idaila to shoot through.
I don’t think it’s that unusual, Charlie movied through pretty quickly (I just looked it up and found 25 mph). Most storms seem to get sucked up NE pretty quickly once they hit a certain latitude. I would guess it’s more unusual for a storm to just park itself or to move at a snails pace, though obviously we’ve seen a few of those too. Ian and Maria come to mind, and I recall a few Texas storms doing crazy things, even looping around for a 2nd landfall.
it seemed like Ian sat over our house for a looooong time. Irma was faster. Charlie blew right through
Indeed - aged like a cup of milk left out. I did qualify it with "right now" and "hope it stays that way". The NHC Discussions over the weekend were rather ominous in tone when they discussed the possibility of rapid intensification. This mornings now says: "The bottom line is that rapid intensification is becoming increasingly likely before landfall, and the NHC forecast now explicitly indicates it between 24-48 h in the forecast." And they're now forecasting 115 mph Wednesday morning as it makes landfall.
I have some friends in the Bahamas that told me horrible stories of the cat 5 that sat on top of them for over 24 hours.
Water temperatures worry me. Hopefully it does not exceed cat 2 but the potential for intensification is worrying.
Tampa will get significant flooding and impacts. But could also get a direct hit with a right turn. Mike points out about the right turn history here
BULLETIN Tropical Storm Idalia Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023 1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023 ...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DANGEROUS WINDS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.8N 85.2W ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES
Not to sound like an episode of Sesame Street, but the letter "M" has made an appearance with the 11am update
All the models are converging and also showing a slight tick back to the west or further north landfall
Also, it is very clear why insurance companies are running from the state. All the population growth on the beaches/shoreline and the increase in deadly storms. Quite the problem here.
Who would have thought that increased water temperature would fuel hurricanes? Scientists? Insurers? People with brains?
