But landfall at right about the time of my flight-6am. Hopefully we will still get to SLC Wednesday. If it’s mostly a rain event that should be doable. I am having flashbacks, however, of how fast Hurricane Michael flared up and brought devastation from the same part of the Gulf. I pray this storm isn’t his twin. I also pray that I didn’t just jinx us up here in the Panhandle.
We could have a dedicated thread on the mobsters running the Insurance industry. My buddy recently had a tree fall on a portion of his roof. Been with the same homeowner’s insurance for approx 25 years, never having filed a claim. He and his wife contacted their rep and reported the issue, intending to actually use the coverage they’ve been paying for. The response from the insurance company? In a nutshell, “We’ll pay for the repairs. But, we’re going to drop your Homeowner’s Insurance policy after. Or, you can cover the repairs, yourselves, and we’ll continue to provide the insurance”. Wtaf?!?
From NHC discussion: There's a notable risk of rapid intensification while the system moves across the record warm eastern and northeastern Gulf of Mexico, which is highlighted by the recent HAFS and HWRF guidance. The new NHC forecast is raised from the previous one, near or above the model consensus, and could be too low. I'm reluctant to make any big changes to the forecast until we get more in-situ data, but the upward overnight model trend certainly bears watching. Users are reminded to continue monitoring forecasts for any changes to the system's expected intensity as it approaches Florida. Never seen language like this before in a discussion. Mike of MWP talks about recent history of similar storms shows that West Central Florida still at substantial risk Two hurricane hunters out now. More data in 11 or 5 update
Mike is live now on YouTube. Worth a listen. Also this page Central Florida Hurricane Center 2023 - 28 Years Tracking Storms
From Central Florida Hurricane AM 27-Aug EDT 7:30AM EDT 27 August 2023 Update Idalia-to-be (TD TEN) and Hurricane Franklin are being aggressively flown by recon today, and this invaluable data will be fed into the models, forecast models which have been especially struggling a bit with TEN, and forecasters too. By the end of the day we should be able to have greater confidence in the forecasts, but this is not to say that impacts won't be felt. There is already high confidence that a then-hurricane Idalia will make landfall somewhere along the west coast of Florida, and that a then-Major Hurricane Franklin will be within striking distance of Bermuda.
Connecting through Atlanta to SLC on Delta? See if they’ll allow you to burn first leg due to storm (will need some sort of waiver without voiding whole ticket) and just drive up to Atlanta Tuesday night to make your connecting flight. We use ECP all the time. 5-6 direct flights a to to ATL.
Will some of you scientific types interpret this from the 11am NHC discussion? I have a good idea from context, but more translation would be welcome. Three terms I need to look up, bolded with an article Although this feature could produce some moderate southwesterly vertical wind shear over the system, positive vorticity advection and diffluent upper-level flow to the east of the trough will likely be conducive for strengthening. From the NWS Vorticity is any twisting motion in the troposphere. Positive vorticity can be broken down into three components, which are positive shear vorticity, positive curvature vorticity and earth vorticity. A counterclockwise spin in the Northern Hemisphere will produce positive vorticity. Webster’s What is called advection? ad·vec·tion ad-ˈvek-shən. : the usually horizontal movement of a mass of fluid (such as air or an ocean current) also : transport (as of pollutants or plankton) by such movement. NWS again Difluence (or diffluence) - A pattern of wind flow in which air moves outward (in a "fan-out" pattern) away from a central axis that is oriented parallel to the general direction of the flow. It is the opposite of confluence. Difluence in an upper level wind field is considered a favorable condition for severe thunderstorm development (if other parameters are also favorable). But difluence is not the same as divergence. In a difluent flow, winds normally decelerate as they move through the region of difluence, resulting in speed convergence which offsets the apparent diverging effect of the difluent flow.
I wondered about it staying Cat 1 with the water so warm this year, but I don't understand much of the upper air stuff.
