Beware. This is the worst run yet, one of many, and certainly the worst. But cause for concern https://x.com/hurricaneo66042/status/1695237701329399821?s=61&t=Txm-mjaJo1cwIn6vbZJYEA
Right now, it doesn't look like conditions are favorable for significant development.. Hoping it stays that way, it's gonna be labor day weekend when it approaches FL!
My wife has been watching Mike of Mike's Weather Page. He's a bit odd but he's not crazy about such things. Though everything is projected into the Big Bend area at no stronger than the category 1, he said that the history of storms falling similar paths have had them taken earlier easterly turn and also conditions are ripe for unexpected rapid intensification. So she already wants to start making evacuation plans. Just passing on the information. Things may have changed overnight which I have not checked yet
My reading and 45 years of watching these things tell me this is going to land closer to tallacrappy. Take that for what it’s worth which isn’t much if anything at all.
His five tweets from this morning are going to do nothing to ratchet down the anxiety https://x.com/tropicalupdate?s=21&t=Txm-mjaJo1cwIn6vbZJYEA
@tampagtr For those of us in Florida, or with a Florida 2d home (as we have in the panhandle) this is a thread worth tracking so you may want to change the thread title so everyone knows what it’s about. Just my $0.02. Thanks for starting.
Thanks. I did not want to be alarmist when I originally posted. But as of now, every model shows at least a TS making Florida landfall, overnight Tuesday - Wednesday most likely. So I think an updated title is appropriate. Of course, there is no official track yet, so many may not think it merits attention
If Michael taught anything it’s that gulf storms can go from depressions to cat 5s in 24-36 hours, and the water is way warmer now. Thanks.
