Look how many non-Trump GOP candidates won elections earlier this month. Yes, it's hard to predict voters, but I think if given the choice between DeSantis and Biden, DeSantis will get his turnout, regardless of Trump. As time moves forward, Trump becomes more and more irrelevant. I also think DeSantis will have a lot more national appeal than Cruz, Rubio or Kasich did in 2016. Part of Trump's success in 2016 was the lack of strong candidates from the GOP. The GOP put up a bunch of lackluster candidates which splintered the support.
I think you tend to give people too much credit. If people weren't bothered by Trump already, I doubt anything will bother them about him.
Most right-wing media supported Trump in '16 and we know how media shapes a narrative. That support is being pulled back in a big way, leaving Trump to fend completely for himself. It's a different ballgame for 2024.
I certainly don't mind forward-looking analysis or even predictions. I engage in them myself. But the vast majority of us should have humility about the quality of our assessments and predictions given the last few election cycles.
I’d almost prefer that DeSantis remain Governor and keep Florida going from strength to strength. And maybe given recent elections in Taiwan, maybe Congress will shift its attention to the Florida Independence movement.
The Republicans do not have to institute super delegates, they can simply allocate delegates based on the proportion of the primary vote that each candidate receives as the Democrats do. Although the Republican party eliminated winner-take-all in the early primaries they still permitted state parties to use it in the later primaries and used forms of weighting the results so that a candidate who wins a plurality of the votes even if the number is nowhere close to a majority ends up with a majority of the delegates. Personally I think both parties should use rank choice voting in their presidential primaries but that's probably never going to happen. If the Republicans used rank choice voting in 2016 Trump would have never ended up with the nomination. I seriously doubt that Trump would have been the second or even third choice of voters who voted for Rubio, Jeb Bush or John Kasich.
Trump did dominate coverage early on, just like he still dominates coverage. He spews so much ridiculous or scandalous crap that theirs always a breaking new soundbite for the media to discuss, which keep shim front and center but without enough time for the public to ever digest a single outrage before it's buried beneath a dozen more. But IIRC, he was considered a laughing stock even in right-wing media for much of the 2016 primary season. Fox News and right wing media didn't begin their love affair with Trump until he became a clear front-runner for the ticket.
Kind of reminds me of the poster from Kentucky who on the day of Kentucky's 2019 Gubernatorial election announced that he would be attending Matt Bevin's victory party. The following day: Andy Beshear declares victory over Matt Bevin in governor's race
Why are our right-wing posters so prone to making overly bold predictions and being very wrong about them? It seems to be a uniquely right-wing phenomenon here. Don't really see the same thing from the left.
Latest line of bullshit from Kevin McCarthy: Trump didn't know who Fuentes was.....riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight. Want to buy a bridge?
I have to chime in here. Why would republican voters dump Trump in favor of a cheap Trump copy like DeSantis? Of course the answer is despite having far better choices republicans have shown they’re incapable of making a better choice. What will happen is DeSantis will win the primary to run against an unnamed Democrat. Trump, with his proclivity to seek revenge, will run as a third party candidate to punish the Republican Party for not choosing him. Precious Republican votes will be split allowing the unnamed Democrat to win in an electoral landslide.
It remains funny how some people believe that they can just cleanly excise Trump from the GOP and move on. DeSantis will look like roadkill by the time Trump is done with him.
DeSantis still trying to court Trump voters by not denouncing Trump and Fuentes. In other news, he’s back to trying to threaten or compel speech of private corporations with Apple.
Unless he is in jail or dead I fully expect trump to be in the 2024 prez race till the end. Already looking forward to the debates.
Kind of like Trump didn't know who David Duke was back in 2016. Even if Trump didn't know who Fuentes was prior to his invitation to the dinner at Mar-a-Lago considering that the Secret Service almost certainly screened every one of the invitees Trump was almost certainly briefed on Fuentes prior to the actual dinner.
