AR had some good games but overall his production is not hard to replace. He was even an honorable mention in the heisman. Mertz could be terrible but maybe not. We won six games last year. There’s nowhere to go but up.
Seriously, I can legit see us winning 9 against this schedule. Of course we could lose more than 3 games but I feel we match up well with most of the teams on our schedule. With a few more good showing and a lucky bounce I can see us going 11-1 too but that is not as likely. I included a couple losses that I feel will be close games that could bounce our way if we over perform. I see it going as follows Week 1 @ Utah – 29.7% win Week 2 vs McNeese – 99% win Week 3 vs Tennessee – 51.7% WIN/lose Week 4 vs Charlotte – 96.3% win Week 5 @ Kentucky – 48.4% win Week 6 vs Vanderbilt – 90.4% win Week 7 @ South Carolina – 58.9% WIN/lose (possible trap game, looking ahead to uga) Week 9 vs Georgia – 13.8% lose Week 10 vs Arkansas – 66.2% win Week 11 @ LSU – 18.5% win/LOSE Week 12 @ Missouri – 58.1% win Week 13 vs FSU– 50.3% WIN/lose The only game I feel we are not as talented as is UGA. (Though I'm not sold on Beck) the games I listed with a (/) is games I feel could go either way and I highlighted the way I feel it will mostly go. Don't like the game in Baton Rouge , but it's not insurmountable. The Carolina game could be a trap game on the road looking ahead to UGA but we handled them last year and I feel we are better this year. I like our chances vs Tenn at home but it could be a close game if we get complacent after a big win vs Utah and a easy win vs mcneese st. I'm giving our guys the benefit of the dou t vs Arky seeing as it's gonna be a hyped game at home , but our home coming games have been let downs in the past and we're wearing black jerseys so fingers crossed. I feel we right the ship vs UK and Vandy after last year's losses. I can totally see 9-3 but 10-2 or 8-4 are feasible as well. Either way I'd be surprised if we only win 5 or 6 like predicted. Too much talent and pride to have another losing season IMO
We could easily lose all the pivot ol games too. Mertz has to be an average sec qb for us to win those games. We will soon see but I expect 7-8 wins. Let’s hope Mertz actually is pretty good.
It all hinges on that . My gut tells he'll be at least average. 9-3/8-4 most likely scenarios if he is. Now if he shows to be more then average then 10-2 is possible too. Now I didn't take into account potential injuries to key players. If that happens who knows where the season goes depending on who is injured. Here's hoping that we just have a good season and keep building this momentum.
Sometimes, you think with your heart and sometimes, you think with your head. Tennessee looks good, Kentucky has been beating us lately, South Carolina is looking to avenge last year’s game, Georgia is a loss, LSU is a loss, FSU is looking good, and then there’s the chance we get upset by someone we’re supposed to beat. Arkansas ain’t no slouch, either.
Tennessee beat us by one busted coverage TD play ( they won by 6 points) on their home field... with the best team they're had in 20 years and with our least effective defense in that same 20 year's time... Kentucky is built to run first and the 3 man front has been the common denominator for our 3-3 record the last 6 years... plus if we pass the ball right into their DB's hands it makes it hard to win that game with the great QB they had last year. South Carolina got their azzs beat in Gainesville last year, not afraid the see them in Columbia. And Vandy is Vandy... we beat the crap out of that team in Gainesville this year. Now, just like I feel that the Tennessee and Kentucky games were anomalies... it's more of the new system and scheme that we have been in lately, and the depth, that will be the difference for us this year. We are fixing the depth and we have ditched the 3 man front that was the whole reason why we could NOT stop the run against the good running teams. We ditched the prevent defense set pieces that we lined up in these last few years... You will see 4 and 5 man fronts this year, especially against teams like Kentucky, Tennessee and LSU.
To get to 9-10 wins, Mertz will have to be a little more than average. He may not need to be elite but he will have to make key plays to win those pivitol 4-5 games. The defense has to show up and the offensive line has to gel, but he will have to make some game winning drives and throws. No team gets to ten wins without the qb putting it on his shoulders a few times. AR pulled out the Utah game and almost Tennessee and FSU. He did well enough if we had a defense but he disappeared a few games also. If Mertz has those same inconsistencies, he may win a few but he will surely lose us some games that we could’ve won. We won’t be up two tds many games where a late interception won’t cost us the game.
If you were the coach, would you talk like that to your team? A positive outlook is necessary to be successful in anything. Georgia is probably the only game we don’t have a realistic shot.
So that ESPN screenshot has us with 2 SEC wins. And one of them is against...the team with the preseason top-rated QB (Arkansas)? The previous win-% listing had us at 66% chance to win. How can Arkansas be that poorly considered, with the top QB? It's almost like the QB position isn't the single metric.
Until they also beat Miss State (9-4) by ten and archrival Louisville (8-5) by 13. We treated them like Vandy. So did Kentucky, it seems, although they lost by only a FG. Florida is no longer a team that can take ANYONE for granted. We damned near lost to USF (1-11) last year. Last year's teams are just that -- last year's teams, be it Utah, Kentucky or Florida. This year, we play both teams on the road, and the air is rather thin out there in Provo, just as the air was rather thick and humid for the Utes last year at The Swamp. I always hope for the best, but we have questions, among them the quarterback. I think 7-5 is a realistic guess, slow steady progress while Billy continues to recruit well. Here's to hoping his building plan is exactly that. He wasn't handed a loaded team like Meyer...
