June [July] inflation

But if inflation keeps dropping every month how is 3 the new baseline? Just wait till the productivity gains of AI kick in. We’re seeing it already in the travel industry. My company is now testing Microsoft Office copilot and has just rolled out Halo BI on top of Tableau and Congos. I do in an hour what it used to take all day (at least). Tip of the hat to me!

 

You didn’t read it then. Thanks for confirming.

 

A little inflation is normal. It went from 1-2 to 8 then back to 3. Last month went up again. Need to see a few more months, but 3 seems to be the new number

 

To be fair to me you’ve not demonstrated an understanding what you consume wrt to markets and the economy so I drive by your links.

I knew without looking that wage growth has outpaced inflation in 2023 (though that growth has probably plateaued ) but here you go.

Wage growth vs inflation U.S. 2023 | Statista

But I did you a solid and read your link. Moodys sounds pretty sanguine about the current and future state of affairs. So not sure what point you’re trying to make..

 

If 3 were the new number, that would be ok. I don't agree with the Fed doggedly raising interest rates until we get back down to 2. There's no real reason why 2 is better than 3. A price rising from $10.00 to $10.20 or $10.00 to $10.30 over the course of a year is a pretty meaningless difference as long as everyone knows what to expect.

 

Based on what exactly? The Fed and top economists think 2% is the target. Moving it 50% higher will surely have negative consequences if they believe 2% the optimal rate to prevent deflation, and provide stable pricing and jobs.

 

There's no consensus on it. 2 vs 3 is pretty arbitrary.

 

What do you consider “consensus?” The Fed has been pretty consistent that 2% is the goal. Throw in the EU, UK, Canada, New Zealand, etc. all with 2% targets and it’s hard to say it’s not a consensus, at least amongst those controlling fiscal policy in first world nations.

 

Gang, real wages are still up vs pre-covid. It’s all relative. If wages are up 3% and inflation is up 3% its pretty much a wash. No one points out their earnings growth only price growth. And picking a random point is useless. Look over time.

Employed full time: Median usual weekly real earnings: Wage and salary workers: 16 years and over

 

LOL. Thanks for admitting you didn't read the article. So $709 PER month from 2 years ago is good? That is $8,500 a year. Holy crap. Maybe turn off MSNBC and CNN for a minute. People are struggling. IF you think this isn't an issue than you aren't paying attention.

 

The point is wages have risen too. At least acknowledge that.

 

Yes, just not as much as needed to offset the rise in prices.

 

Per BLS numbers wages have risen more than prices between Jan 2020 and July 2023.

 

I posted the data showing the 2 year price increase of $8,500 from 2 years ago. Use the last 2 years. Wages up $8,500?

 

And I'm looking at pre-pandemic to now. People are actually better off now than they were in Jan 2020 according to BLS numbers.

 

No they aren't. This shows from the 1st Quarter of Jan 2020 wages increased $624 a month. Not better off when you factor in inflation.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/wkyeng.pdf

 

Yeah I'm looking at the increase in the CPI between Jan 2020 and now vs the increase in the average wage between Jan 2020 and now. The average wage has increased slightly more than CPI over that time. Your numbers show they have essentially increased at the same rate. But I'm using monthly data and you are showing quarterly data. Either way, people aren't worse off now than they were in Jan 2020.

 

It's not the same rate. That's the issue. You are using large exaggerations to try to make it look better because a Dem president is in the WH. You would be arguing my way if it was an R President. At least try to hide your partisanship.

 

Your numbers show real median weekly earnings at $367 in Q1 2020 and $365 in Q2 2023. That's essentially the same. Me saying that's essentially the same rate is not a large exaggeration. But you saying it's a large exaggeration is a large exaggeration.

And if you include the July numbers, wages have fully caught up. Real wages rose 1.9% between July 2022 and July 2023 and 0.3% between June 2023 and July 2023.

 

That's rich coming from you