A view inside of the Russian defense industry, as bankruptcy and collapse loom large in the background. Russian weapons manufacturers are expected to cough up half the difference if the Russian government does not want to pay full price for the weapons and ammo. One of the reasons that Russia is short on howitzer shells is that an artillery manufacturing plant was demolished in 2022 in spite of promises to keep it open. Large numbers of Russian defense contractors are in bankruptcy proceedings. Putin: "Looks like I picked a bad time to run out of money." Why dozens of Russian enterprises are bankrupt, or heading that way
Determent is a myth. We've been "deterring" for 80 years. We don't need to "deter" Russia to convince China not to move on Taiwan. That is just something they tell you so that you keep feeding the military industrial complex. And yeah, I'm sorry, the "we have to do something with all of our old cluster munitions" doesn't work either. We could do what every other G7 nation has done and ban them, then destroy them. It's honestly a cruel joke when we say "we sent Leopards to Ukraine", because they aren't real Leopards. Them poor bastards tried to cross a river in one of those things and found out the hard way. We're giving Ukraine just enough gear to hang themselves. Lastly, I'm not convinced Ukraine even wants to fight anymore. Zelenskyy ran for president on a peace platform. We send them weapons and they don't commit to their operations. Therefore, Ukraine have failed to even engage Russia's 1st line of defense during this "counteroffensive." Make no mistake, this is driving the Pentagon crazy. The Ukrainians don't want to fight a war they can't win.
Well the counteroffensive isn't going well and the likelihood that Ukraine takes back any lost territory is almost 0. Russia may have sucked on offense, but their defense is still #1. Basically equivalent to no yards, no 1st downs, no score. Western allies receive increasingly 'sobering' updates on Ukraine's counteroffensive: 'This is the most difficult time of the war' | CNN Politics
As to Russia sucking on offense, why expose yourself to massive losses when your enemy comes to you to suffer massive losses ? BTW, remember the glorious Kherson counter-offensive last year ? Ukraine suffered a bloodbath.
Offense is always harder, which is exactly what the Russians ran into in their stalled invasion. The risk for Ukraine is also attrition, they can’t just call up hundreds of thousands of conscripts to throw away as cannon fodder the way Putin can. Putin, like any commie dictator, places no value on human life. All lives are subservient to his regime. Ukraine needs to be much more mindful of loss of life on their side, which i believe they are and why they are likely to adapt their strategy. Hopefully they aren’t meaningfully weakening their ability to play defense to hold their own territory, if it comes back to that again. I don’t think Russia has the wherewithal to mount a full “invasion” again either, at least not for awhile. But of course they will continue to try shock events, assassination attempts, missile attacks on civilian areas away from the front lines, etc. Ukraine is trying to do these sort of “message delivering” attacks into Russia and Russia held Ukraine territory as well, hopefully they continue to be much more strategic about those attacks as compared to the Russian terrorists.
To date, the Russians have not attempted a “full invasion” … of a country the size of Texas with a front line of over six hundred miles and manned by upwards of a million men with weapons supplied by 40+ countries.
Certain onlookers also forget that it's been over a year since the Russians tried running anything on offense. They have the ability to adapt, introduce newer technologies into the field, breach new intel. Ukraine doesn't have a wall of defense built up like the Russians do and without air superiority, anything they throw at the front line are sacrificial lambs. The Russian strategy is clear. Exhaust Ukraine's military, then take the initiative. I believe Ukraine wants to lure NATO into the fray. That is the only rationale for keeping the war hot, as it's clear they're not going to break through Russian defenses in the next two weeks. After that, rainy season begins. Possible Russian offensive in the winter. American public support has eroded. Zelenskyy playing with fire, as neither Trump nor DeSantis are going to continue funding a proxy fight over there.
I do believe the move on Kyiv and the north was a feint. Perhaps Russia lost a good amount of soldiers in said feint, but still a feint nonetheless. You don't leave country 4 weeks after a run for the capital. They don't have to occupy the entirety of Ukraine to achieve the security objective, nor do they really care to. Of what value is anything northwest of the Dneiper to Russia long-term? There would be constant instability and violence.
NATO knows this too and the fight is over the Black Sea ports, as NATO and Russia know Ukraine is valueless to NATO as a landlocked country. The only question is how far is NATO willing to fight to secure said Black Sea ports. Time will tell..
I do believe NATO will escalate until it can’t. But it’s hard to imagine that Europeans would countenance sending waves of their own sons and daughters into the meat grinder.
Uhh… considering the war has been at a sustained stalemate with slowly evolving lines almost akin to Trench warfare, I’m pretty sure both sides have a “wall of defense”. Both sides also have the ability to “introduce new technology”, albeit with Ukraine anything “new” they get is of course coming from NATO allies.
A stalemate implies two sides battering themselves against each other trying to move forward. That’s not what’s happening. In a sense, Russia built a wall and the Kyiv regime has been battering themselves against it.
