War in Ukraine

Game pretty much over ?

Round Two? There Is No Round Two.

 

Losing those Black Sea ports will cost Russia appx 600k bpd export capacity.

Ukraine is finally attacking Putin’s weakest spot. It could break him (msn.com)

While all eyes are on the land war in Ukraine, the greater strategic prize for Kyiv could well be found in the war at sea – something quite remarkable for a country without a conventional navy. In two days, two major Russian ships have been hit by maritime attack drones, both operating in the vicinity of Novorossiysk, Russia’s main Black Sea oil port which exports 600,000 barrels a day.

Just hours before the Sig was hit, the Ukrainian State Hydrographic Office issued a warning that the whole of Russia’s Black Sea coast, from Taman to Sochi, was now a “war risk” zone to all ships. That followed a declaration from Ukraine’s ministry of defence in July that all vessels heading to Russian controlled ports on the Black Sea may be treated as carrying military cargo.

Perhaps that was considered rhetorical payback for Moscow’s threats against shipping headed to Ukrainian seaports. But backed up by the two drone strikes in a few days – with perhaps more to follow – the latest warning could be enough to deter many civilian cargo vessels from plying to any port in the designated area, inflicting a severe shock on Russia’s economy.
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To understand the extent of this threat to Moscow, just follow the oil exports. They have become the lifeblood of Russian government revenues. The oil trade – mainly to China and India – generates the foreign currency needed to keep the rouble in equilibrium. And for all the talk of Russian pipelines, Putin is still reliant on Black Sea ports to ship a vast amount of oil abroad. Any sudden reduction of this capacity cannot be compensated by new pipelines, which take years or decades to build.

 

Yeah, I say zero chance Biden keeps this on his plate in an election year. Maybe he hands it off to Europe, but U.S. involvement is going to pretty much be done by Spring 2024, at the latest. Sooner is better for Biden on multiple fronts, as an orderly truce won't look like a disaster. If Ukraine gets run over by Russian troops, that'll look very bad on Biden, whether we're still involved or not.

 

Americans won’t realize that that’s Biden’s second proxy war defeat to Putin (Syria being the first). If there is any sort of settlement, even if favorable to Russia, the war will be spun as plucky Ukrainians, with generous help from America, thwart Russians from taking the whole of Ukraine. I suspect the Biden team knows that American opinion is that malleable.

 

Because I’m ok with insurance. Lol

 

Ukraine slowly but surely taking out bridges and ports along with ammo dumps and fuel depots. Meanwhile, France just gave them a large supply of missiles comparable to the stormshadows. Cutting off all supply routes to Crimea

Ukrainian Bridge Strikes Jamming Russian War Supply Lines (msn.com)

Missile strikes on Crimean bridges created a “major bottleneck” in Russian supply lines, a U.S. think tank said, as Ukrainians took stock after a punishing week of enemy air attacks. Kyiv’s air force on Sunday hit the Chonhar road bridge connecting Russian-occupied Kherson in mainland Ukraine with Russian-occupied Crimea, causing significant damage, officials said.

The Chonhar bridge is the shortest route between Crimea and Russia’s southern front line, and has been targeted in previous Ukrainian attacks. Ukraine also hit a smaller bridge joining the port city of Henichesk and the narrow Arabat Spit on Crimea's north-east coast on Sunday. “This major bottleneck” in Russian logistics “will likely pose significant disruptions to logistics and chances for delays and traffic jams,” the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War said in an analysis.

The ISW noted that some Russia’s alternate routes following the bridge attack will place their supply convoys "within artillery range" of Ukrainian forces.
“It is unclear how quickly Russian officials will be able to repair the Chonhar bridge and it is equally as unclear if Russian officials have repaired the Chonhar railway bridge that Ukrainian forces struck on July 29.” Russian military bloggers said the bridge had been hit by British-made Storm Shadow missiles launched from Ukrainian bombers, and blamed the attack in part on failed airstrikes against a Ukrianian airfield.

 

Disagree. I think Biden keeps up with the assistance as he should. Now if everyone else abandons Ukraine that’s a different circumstance.

Russia attacked Ukraine, has murdered civilians, raped their women, stolen their children, leveled many of their cities, stole whatever belongings they could in the process, etc. If that’s not something worth protecting and assisting with then this world has gone to hell.

 

^ Is to the last dead Ukrainian a campaign-winner ? If not now, by then it will be harder and harder to deny that Ukraine is dying. That and a hollowed-out economy masquerading as recovering means that the Democrats would need to count on more Americans hating Trump than liking Biden. Hey, it worked in 2020.

 

Most Americans Oppose More Spending On Ukraine War, Poll Finds | ZeroHedge

 

They are changing the face of Navel warfare.

Can you imagine losing a trillion+ $ aircraft carrier to a $1000 drone.

 

Americans were ignorant during the runup to our involvement in WWII, as well. It is not surprising to see a large percentage of them being ignorant now, especially after a politician like Trump has championed ignorance as a way of life.

 

If we don’t stand with Ukraine we’ll all be speaking Russia next year.

 

It could change navel gazing as well.

Actually, it would take at least five drones (assuming their warheads were powerful enough and well-placed hits) to sink a carrier.

 

Math is way off there but point taken. Fighter planes are also going obsolete.

 

*China approves this post

 

I have some bad news for you..

 

Spot on! Gone are the days of the Persian Gulf. ISR is just too formidable. You need an army to grind it out, as Russia is doing.

 

First batch of Abrams tanks (31) approved for shipment to Ukraine over the weekend. (Moscow's propaganda department has been working overtime, claiming that up to half of the U.S. tanks have already been destroyed.)

First batch of US Abrams tanks officially approved for shipment to Ukraine

 

The question is will the Abrams arrive in time to suffer the same fate as the Leopards and Bradleys.

The Pentagon is probably hoping not. Bad for American prestige.

 

Once France takes a stand on an issue like this, you know Russia's going to lose.