We just need to go over there and show Russia what’s what. Uh, with what ? US Confidence In Military Hits Lowest Point In Over 20 Years | ZeroHedge
Whether we like it or not, eventually we're going to need a Ron DeSantis type to come through and gut the military of all the woke shit.
Sounds like a slaughter … Yaakov Kedmi on why Western instructors have taught the Ukrainian armed forces nothing: "Neither the British nor the French, no one has ever trained and tried to break through echeloned defence systems. They don't know how to do it, they've never done it. So it is unlikely that they can teach it. Yes, there are certain units in the American army - armoured units. But much more organised, with professional soldiers. The American armoured division practised how to break through an echeloned defence line. But they've never done that in any war, not even in World War II. They fight differently. So there's nothing to teach them. To break through Russia's echeloned defence, you have to throw at least one division into the breach and after a while replace it with another. Because it will be all destroyed in the first stages of the breakthrough, having advanced in just one or two lines. Further on it needs more and more! They can't do it. Firstly, they don't have that much force. Secondly, any attempt to concentrate large formations before attacking makes them an excellent target for artillery and air attacks. Western armies are not ready for the kind of war, the kind of military actions that are being waged in Ukraine today and will be waged tomorrow. They are not ready for modern serious military operations by large army formations against the Russian army." SITREP 8/5/23: Projecting the Intermediate Future
From same analysis … In short, Ukraine faces flagging support from the West and is forced to resort to increasingly escalatory ‘gimmicks’ like mass terror drone attacks on Moscow in the same vein as the terminal phase of the Wehrmacht in WW2 vindictively launching V1/V2 rockets at London. This is nothing more than a dying animal, thrashing out its last gasps. Meanwhile, Russia is on track for 400k new servicemen by the end of this year, with production of all kinds continually ramping up. By next spring, I believe what we’ll see is the slow envelopment of the AFU from every direction. It likely won’t be a massive big arrow campaign but a continual collapse on every single front where the AFU has completely exhausted all combat potential, particularly of the offensive variety, and is desperately trying to hold ground. The dam will slowly break in multiple directions and their positions will be overrun everywhere. Next year will likely look like early 1945 Germany.
Vladimir approves. Would probably more accurate to say 400k new conscripts who will be sent to the front lines as poorly trained cannon fodder (and that's assuming that the 400k is even accurate).
Great interview with Shashank Joshi of the Economist, with his article linked in the show notes, which I have not read, on a study of the progress of the war and what tactics and weapons have been effective, along with countermeasures What Ukraine Tells Us About the Future of War - The Lawfare Podcast
The above reference podcast just made a fascinating mind blowing point about modern logistics. We're always familiar with how every naval ship has to be self-sufficient to the greatest extent possible. But he said that Ukrainian forces have 3D printers at warehouses not far behind for deployed lines. They can reproduce a lot of spare parts at small scale that would normally take trips to the supply chain to procure. The author suggests that every modern military is going to have to develop similar capabilities. Makes perfect sense.
He also had a great point about Nations defending invasion like Ukraine which have a high degree of Internet connectivity. It creates equivalent of a civilian sensor network. 80% of Ukrainians were online. Even as recently as Syria it was only 22%. This creates a whole network of sensors that are largely although not exclusively useful to the defending Force
Some people are going to be crushed … Russia's Economy Projected to Grow Despite Western Sanctions - News From Antiwar.com
Now that Brent crude is north of $85 per barrel, I’m assuming China and India are paying a premium on other imported goods or giving a discount on exports to Russia off the books. I don’t see Putin giving them crude for $60 a barrel. Good thing we had the foresight to see this ahead of time…………..
I’ve lived in Florida for 70 years and had homeowners insurance for my whole adult life. I’m ignorant about the “ gutting” of homeowners insurance. How did DS do that?
Soooo....we are one week into "Ukraine's main thrust of the counteroffensive" and in the first week.......it's been a small net gain of territory for Russia. It seems Ukraine is not willing to commit full scale, because if they commit and fail, they know they're done. This is going to cause some friction with the Western NATO bloc and US, if it's not already. Apparently, Ukraine is not holding up their end of the bargain on the weapons shipment. Ceding more time to Russia to innovate, re-stock, re-supply and dig in. If the Ukrainians won't go all in, the truce has to be made. Otherwise, it will be a catastrophe.
Not to sidetrack too far from the topic, but DeSantis hasn't made it a priority to even address the problem, as far as I can see. Insurers are leaving the state left and right, premiums are doubling every couple of years, and builders are still over-building housing in hurricane disaster zones, with little or no requirement to make them hurricane-resistant as far as flooding and storm surge. We also have a situation where insurers can be forced to pay for a new roof after a storm if the roof is old enough, giving no incentive to people to replace their own roof on their own dime if they are going to stay in the house. Regulating the insurance companies is one of the jobs of state government, is it not? Mailing illegal immigrants to other states seems like it should be a lower priority.
How many times do you need to be told that Ukraine’s measure of effectiveness is not terrain gained or lost but casualties inflicted? And if I don’t know what the real score is there, you surely don’t. I realize that Russia wants a ceasefire really, really badly, but they’re going to have to earn it with some actual tactical victories in the field, not just the continued (to the point of being trite) threat of victories in the field. You say they can march on Odessa at will? Great. Let them prove it. I will loudly support a ceasefire when Russia makes an actual demonstration of tactical offensive competence.
At this stage of the game, I don't know whether we can put much stock in the miniscule gains that either side is making right now. Ukraine is doing about as well as can be expected against fortified defensive positions. Without air power to help out, it is doubtful that the U.S. Army would do much better. There are millions of mines and defensive obstacles to be negotiated and disposed of while under fire from the Russians. I think Ukraine is doing reasonably well. I certainly have not seen any sign of them giving up. Russia appears to be struggling to keep their troops supplied with ammunition, which is partly due to Ukraine's targeting of supply depots and bridges, and partly due to Russia's severe shortage of money to pay for ammo (which is why Russia's defense minister was in North Korea to beg for ammo recently). Crying because Ukraine is not wildly successful ONE WEEK IN to the expanded counter-offensive is somewhat childish. That's like complaining one minute in to your wife's cooking dinner that dinner is not ready and it looks inedible.
