Conference Expansion

If The B1G expands to take those 4 west coast schools and then goes after the likes of F$U then it’s basically the AFC/NFC model they created.

If they pass on F$U then the SEC has zero reason to get them. What will they bring? UNC and NCSU have just as many fans so numbers of streamers is a dumb argument. Which means we circle back to TV markets. F$U cannot give the SEC a single TV market it doesn’t already have. Every sports establishment in Tallahassee and across the state of Florida is already tuning into UF and SEC games on fall Saturdays.

So again what can F$U bring to the SEC that is so enticing to make us want to dilute the existing members’ share? I already said UNC, UVA, WVU can bring footprint and TV markets. F$U cannot bring any of that. Unlike Texas and their Longhorn Network F$U cannot carry their conference or stand on their own. They are literally begging to be taken to the prom by a prettier guy arguing they are better than the rest of the teams out there. They have not provided any proof.

 

You're probably right, but this strategy feels reminiscent of the underpants gnomes from South Park.

Step 1: Alienate the ACC with constant whining
Step 2: ????
Step 3: Profits

Maybe I'm completely wrong and they get an invite to a 24-team B1G conference within a year or two, at which point I'll eat crow. Maybe the fallback plan is they go back to being independent, which they see as more profitable than staying in the ACC. But I have a hard time seeing a really good ending for them.

 

Hard to know if the B1G wants to get that big. Can’t do so without being a coast to coast conference. An AFC/NFC model. One week you play in Piscataway, NJ the next in LA. Gonna be tough to run athletic programs with those travel costs.

 

The ACC proves that tv market/footprint is not the most significant factor since the ACC coverts the entire East Coast metro markets. It is about eyes-on viewers.
MOST-WATCHED COLLEGE FOOTBALL PROGRAMS 2012-2021 (TOTAL VIEWERS)
1. Alabama 1,027,064,000 SEC
2. Ohio State 790,299,000 Big Ten
3. Clemson 579,106,462 ACC
4. Georgia 571,816,559 SEC
5. Notre Dame 561,791,000 IND/ACC
6. Michigan 520,873,532 Big Ten
7. Oklahoma 488,452,372 Big 12
8. LSU 473,400,462 SEC
9. Auburn 432,296,000 SEC
10. Florida State 396,445,110 ACC
11. Florida 379,689,796 SEC
12. Michigan State 365,973,720 Big Ten
13. Wisconsin 362,327,715 Big Ten
14. Penn State 347,617,000 Big Ten
15. Oregon 344,256,396 Pac 12
16. Texas A&M 319,785,372 SEC
17. Texas 316,655,916 Big 12
18. USC 291,251,988 Pac 12
19. Oklahoma State 260,682,996 Big 12
20. Nebraska 260,098,559 Big Ten

 

Very true. The mistake the ACC made in their last round of expansion was adding smaller metro schools to try to expand their media footprint. The problem is that adding schools like Louisville, Pitt, Syracuse and Boston College don't drive TV "carriage" in those states, especially in states where college football isn't big.

The SEC and Big-10 were smarter in taking the premier state land grant schools that have large alumni base spread throughout the state.

 

This makes the most sense to me. The "footprint" argument never made any sense. If ratings are based on viewership, then its the number of viewers not where they are. If there are 30 million people in Florida and half are Gators and the other half are Holes, that's still 15 million more viewers that you could get and have 100% of the viewers. Not half that much in the same "footprint".

 

Alumni and student base is why I hope, if the Arizona schools go to the BIG12, that the BIG12 expands to California. Outside of Arizona, more UA and ASU alum live in California than any other state. And more students come to the Arizona schools from California than any other state not named Arizona. SDSU isn't UCLA or USC, and Fresno is a far cry from Berkeley or Palo Alto, but it's better than nothing. Colorado has more alum and students than CA than any other state not name Colorado too.

I also agree that the AFC/NFC look of college super conferences is unlikely to happen unless the SEC changes its stance and decides to look west. But with the LA schools already in the B1G, and ORWA likely following, what schools make sense for the SEC to expand? Utah? Stanford? Nice to haves, but nowhere near the impact of adding a Texas and Oklahoma. The reality is, regardless of how big any other conference gets, the SEC at the current 16 is a force in college sports. And not regionally challenged, which is a plus. If Notre Dame wants to come, the SEC opens its doors. Anyone else? Not sure they add enough value, except for maybe North Carolina and Virginia, just to add footprint in neighboring states. But again, these are nice-to-haves, and not must-haves.

If the SEC never expands to the west coast, the AFC/NFC model, in my opinion, never materializes. While the 4th window late game isn't as profitable for the TV networks, it's still profitable. FOX paying a premium for the LA schools makes sense. ORWA? Maybe. Anyone else, that's a hard no. If the B1G can get ORWA at a discount, that makes financial sense for Fox. The same math works for ESPN. Why pay a SEC premium for west coast schools, when they get the same schools at BIG12 prices?

Bottom line, the NFL model is likely the most profitable for the TV networks. But only if there are schools of equal value in both conferences in each time zone in my opinion. And if ORWA go B1G, there are no other schools in the Mountain or Pacific time zones for the SEC to add to equal what the B1G will have.

 

Carriage was a big issue when the SEC Network was starting up, but not so much now. It really ended up not being an issue for either the Big-10 and SEC because both effectively got national carriage fees, so they get money from every single cable/satellite subscriber, whether they watch or not.

Carriage is still a HUGE issue for the Big-12, ACC, Pac-12 and LHN, because lack of carriage fees is the primary reason they've fallen so far behind.

 

Imagine reading this thread 20 years ago... No way I would believe this would be happening in CFB...

 

I think we're mostly on the same page. I really think that unless Notre Dame or UNC contact the SEC ready to join, the SEC may very well be done even considering expansion until the next round of TV negotiations, barring some other unknown factor that forces them to do something. Outside of those 2 teams (+1 if they need another "Mizzou"), I don't think there's anybody else that will push the SEC to make any major moves.

Same goes for the Big-10 and for the exact same 2 schools. Notre Dame and UNC, in my opinion, are the only 2 legitimate home runs left out there.

Whether or not the Big-10 decides to pull the trigger on UW and Oregon is anyone's guess, but unless they agree to come in at a half share (which they might), I don't see it happening. The SEC and Big-10 might stay right where they are for a while.

 

Rutgers never should have let that Schiano dude get away. They were pretty good when he had them choppin wood

 

To paraphrase, the conferences are a sports league with a side hustle in tertiary education.

 

And only level below is all we should schedule, no level 3 or below.

 

Winning national championships matter too. What do the bottom teams in a conference really bring ?

 

I watch Bama Auburn almost every year. I rarely watch any of ole miss- miss st.

 

While I agree in theory, cupcake games are necessary to have enough home games in BHG, even if FL/GA goes on campus. Some of those level 2 schools may agree to 2 for 1 home and home series, but certainly FSU and Miami won't. The ones who would are probably not the ones we want to see.

 

Here is why I don't think the SEC should get teams from out west, feel free to tell me why I'm wrong. The most passionate fans and support is in the southeast. There's a reason why the national champ has been from this region for the better part of 2 or 3 decades. It has a little to do with money but the BIG has money and no nattys to show for it (other than ohio st. 1 year). I think the BIG is watering down their brand by reaching out west for teams. It may increase their territory, but it's not going to help them win. Maybe they don't care about that.
Anyway, the SEC should jump at the chance to get a UNC, NCSt. and maybe eventually Clemson and unfortunately the Holes. Maybe even UVA and VaTech.

 

Its nothing more than sabre-rattling trying to get the ACC's attention who would be best advised to laugh at them and carry on. Its obvious that they have nowhere to go or they would already be gone.

 

Maybe only 2 new teams for the B1G?

Big Ten leaders authorize commissioner to explore adding Oregon, Washington as expansion teams, per report

 

You must like the no-defense, pinball type football. Sadly, it has even infected other leagues including the SEC.