Why would Russia want to mount an offensive? It would be suicidal. They are horrible at offensive war tactics. It's too complicated for them, and their weapons are inferior. Defensive warfare is the only thing that Russia is halfway decent at, because they can figure out trenches, minefields, and artillery barrages. Russia needs Ukraine to start running out of soldiers or ammunition before they think about another offensive. Russia does need to stay one step ahead of Ukraine in building more defensive positions as Ukraine slowly takes Russia's defensive positions apart. Ukraine needs to stay in the war and hope Russia falls apart. If Russia collapses economically (especially if the population starves as a result), the military will not be too far behind. Russia is already in debt and no one wants to loan Russia any money. They have bled the foreign companies dry. They have sold all the oil they could at rock-bottom prices. Putin is running out of options. Meanwhile, China is going to stop selling drones to Russia, and Ukraine is firing seized Iranian shells at Russian positions.
If that was what was happening, then little to nothing apart from shortening the war in Russia’s favor. But that is only what Russia wants people like you to think is happening, and in it that Russia is having a measure of success: information operations as a substitute for battlefield success. Again, you echo the Russian threat of an offensive. And, again, I assert that if they could, then they would. Ukraine maintains the initiative at every level of war, and that is astonishing given the Russian manpower and material advantage. It sounds like one side fears “running out of soldiers” in a very different but very real sense much more than the other. And it isn’t Ukraine.
Three ships with NATO planes overhead arrived in Ukraine to pick up grain in defiance of black sea blockade NATO Planes Watched As Civilian Ships Ran Russia’s Blockade Of Ukraine (forbes.com) Twenty-two days after Moscow canceled a deal with Kyiv—which had allowed Ukraine safely to export tens of millions of tons of grain—and then threatened to halt maritime traffic to Ukrainian ports, the world has called the Russians’ bluff. “Reports of three civilian ships sailing to Ukraine unhindered may suggest that Russia is either unwilling or unable to enforce such searches at this time,” the Institute for the Study of War in Washington, D.C. noted. A flock of NATO aircraft carefully monitored the ships as they sailed toward Izmail, a small Ukrainian port just across from Romania on the Danube River. The vessels presumably will load grain in Izmail then sail back into the Black Sea and onward to foreign ports. The Israeli vessel with the ship-tracking handle Ams1, as well as the Greek vessel with the handle Sahin 2, sailed north from the Bosporus Strait, while the Turkish-Georgian Yilmaz Kaptan sailed west from northern Turkey. Overhead, no fewer than four NATO warplanes patrolled: a U.S. Navy P-8 patrol plane, a U.S. Army Challenger with a surface-scanning radar, a U.S. Air Force RQ-4 drone and an E-3 early-warning plane from NATO. None of the planes routinely carries weapons, but NATO fighters—including Italian Eurofighters and Romanian F-16s—were nearby in Romania.
russian oil exports drop to lowest in 7 months. not sure if it is lack of buyers or lack of production/delivery capacity as the oil industry faces economic sanctions and brain drain so less workers, less investment Russia's Seaborne Oil Exports Just Hit Their Lowest Level in 7 Months (businessinsider.com) In July, Russia's seaborne crude exports dropped to their lowest mark in seven months, Bloomberg data shows. Russia shipped an average of 2.98 million barrels a day in the four weeks to July 30, down roughly 900,000 barrels a day since May's peak. According to Bloomberg, flows for the month were more volatile on a weekly basis, and exports coming out of the Arctic matched previous record highs. Indian refiners, who have been snapping up increasing volumes of discounted oil from Russia since last February when the war in Ukraine began, decreased purchases for the second straight month in July. The discount they enjoyed on Russian crude is narrowing amid a broader rise in prices.
Wagner soldiers reported to be collecting on the border near Poland. The above report about NATO aircraft protecting Ukraine grain shipments. NATO dribbling out progressively stronger weapon systems including aircraft. Russia aircraft shadowboxing NATO aircraft. Escalating drone warfare, including attacks in Russia. Missle attacks on ammo dumps, transport infrastructure and from Russia direct attacks on civilian housing and Agricultural storage. It's just a matter of time before NATO and Russia come to grips, IMO.
I would tend to agree, whether it be incidental or intentional. Some sort of clash seems likely. Makes one wonder if Russia's gambit is to give them what they want or they will effectively bring human life on this planet to an end. (they can't be that stupid can
Well I'm a narcissist so yes, I think there are persons of such monumental hubris and arrogance that nukes could fly. The question is, will entire arsenals fly? If so, you may want to brush up on flint collection and stone tool making.
No, they aren’t that stupid. Russia, Putin in particular, is a rational actor. He does believe, however, with good reason to this point, that we are weak-kneed enough to say, “Meh. What if they are crazy or stupid, one in a thousand chance? Why risk it? Let’s just let them have it.” So that’s the bad news, that we might just cave in and go full Chamberlain, which will not make things go away but will instead open up a whole host of problems. The good news is, if the war was going as well as Russia or the Russian trolls would have us believe, then they wouldn’t be playing these sort of games. There would be no need. This is an inadvertently open admission by Russia that they are losing.
I agree that Russia is losing, I absolutely do not agree that they aren't "that" stupid. Persons do insane crap every day. People suffer from schizophrenia, depression, alcoholism, madness, you name it. Things can also escalate out of control for unknown reasons. Nor can you claim command and control is as exceptional in Russia as in the US. (Unless you are at really high level in US intelligence). And even if you claimed to be, I would not believe you. Robert McNamara- A little dust up Mr President, it will all be over soon. Radio Norad son, we just lost a nuke in the Savannah River.
No, thanks. I would be in for a slow, painful death once the local area ran out of omeprazole (prilosec). Acid reflux might be a minor nuisance these days, but it just won’t do in a return to the Stone Age. It will be a quick death in the open for me. But I wish the rest of you good fortune in the wars to come!
Khruschev was correct: the survivors will envy the dead. Never knew what hit me versus a slow, agonizing death in a dystopic irradiated wasteland while the remnants of humanity kill each other off (and worse). I'll take the former. I sincerely hope that our species is not so stupid as to ever go down that path.
First, no, not intel (aviation), and no special insight. If I was actually in that part of the game, then I wouldn’t post here. Second, in all seriousness, I understand the concern about dealing with a potential irrational actor. I just don’t see a better alternative to calling their bluff. We can’t let Russia or anyone else use nuclear blackmail in every instance they don’t get their way. There becomes literally no end to it the first time we back down. I have no idea what we’re saying behind the scenes, but I hope it’s something on the order of “We have nukes, too. Our nukes work. Our nukes will hit what they’re aimed at. And we have the ability to intercept at least some of your nukes. Like what you hear so far about happens if you kick over the game board?” And to China: “In the event of a Russian nuclear attack, we have no choice but to assume you are all in as well. If that is not part of your plan, then we recommend you keep your dog on a leash.”
Putin has been reduced to rummaging through the couch cushions for cash to fund his war. He's also throwing money at the poor people to get them to support the war, increasing pension funds and salaries, and subsidizing mortgages. Why Russia’s spending spree is raising alarm bells
Russians on the southern front are struggling with battle fatigue and a lack of ammunition. U.S. intelligence indicates that there are troops from two different Russian regions fighting in the south, and they are not willing or able to coordinate with each other. Ukraine's attacks on Crimean bridges is having a major impact on these units being able to re-supply themselves. Russia's southern front defenses are starting to fall apart. UK Defense Ministry: Russian units 'struggling with battle fatigue' and ammunition shortages
I can understand why people think Russia’s losing if their primary sources are like NYT and BBC. Wait, no I can’t. Even they know that Russia isn’t losing. Ex: Ukrainian tanks are being wiped out by Russian minefields. The country needs its own 'Manhattan Project' to figure out how to clear them, a retired general told the NYT.
