Wagner is recruiting fighters in Belarus on the condition that they are willing to fight in Poland. Wagner may be getting a little too big for their britches. Poland would eat them alive. It's probably a move to distract Poland from assisting Ukraine, but you never know. It might be tied to the movement of nuclear weapons to Belarus, so that an attack by Wagner causes Poland to respond and "invade" Belarus, and Belarus can respond with tactical nuclear weapons to "defend themselves". All the while Putin is denying involvement, even though he is pulling Lukashenko's strings from Moscow. These are some sick bastids we're dealing with. National Resistance Center: Wagner recruiting fighters in Belarus on condition of readiness to fight in Poland, Lithuania
Russian elites are flocking to an island in Thailand as they get thrown out of (or rejected from) other civilized countries. I'm sure they will "Phuke-It" up. Russian Elites Are Transforming Thailand’s Biggest Island as They Become More Unwelcome in the West Business coaching classes? What do the Russians know about business, besides how to threaten a competitor with an unpleasant death? I would think that could be covered in one class.
this town is over halfway to the sea of Azov to cut off the land bridge to Crimea. much deeper penetration than I have seen record of before Ukrainian forces liberate Staromaiorske (msn.com) Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has posted a video showing the Ukrainian military announcing that they have liberated the village of Staromaiorske in Donetsk Oblast.
Well, per Ukrainian sources and NATO sources, Ukraine has began their first “real push” of the counteroffensive and have set iron clad benchmarks that must be achieved within the next three weeks for it to be considered a success. This is important to remember, because there’s a decent chance they’ll try to walk it back in 3 weeks should they fail. They have lost so much time toiling, prime fighting weather in Ukraine is about another month or so max. So the 3 week benchmarks make sense from that standpoint. If they don’t hit them, it’s essentially a year squandered going no where. Perhaps Ukraine will consider that a win if they can lobby a sharp increase in aid. But I don’t think the Western partners will continue bankrolling a stalemate.
Prigozhin: Wagner boss spotted in Russia during Africa summit — BBC News Prigozhin spotted in St. Petersburg this week at the African summit shaking hands with African diplomats, likely laughing with them about the psyop they ran a few weeks ago. As if Putin would allow someone who just tried to overthrow him a few weeks ago anywhere near foreign diplomats at the African summit, on Russian soil no less.
Assuming your theory is correct, I still fail to see any actual benefit from it. And I have quite an imagination. If true, it would remind me of the subplot in Man on the Moon where Andy Kaufman created a nemesis, Tony Clifton, whom he also played, just as an inside joke with himself. In the movie as in real life, no one understood what he had in mind with that.
Potentially lost in all of this … This is a land war on a scale not since since WWII. But, in terms of sheer devil may care walking over rotting corpses, diving into trenches, catching explosives and throwing them back … you might have to go back to WWI
I believe the paramount motive for the psyop was Putin finding out which of his generals were loyal to him and which weren’t. Apparently, this wouldn’t be the first time in history a Russian leader has pulled a stunt like this. Sure enough, we know of at least one top general who disappeared shortly after “the mutiny” and hasn’t been in touch with his family or seen since. If you study the history of Prigozhin and Putin’s relationship over the years, you’ll understand why this was 100% a psyop. Prigozhin and Putin have been friends for a long time, they go way back. Prigozhin got his start as Putin’s head chef at the Kremlin, long before Wagner existed. If you can imagine in Russia, if there is one job that requires ultimate loyalty and trust above all others, it’s the guy who’s in control of the food you’re being served. This shows Putin’s trust with Prigozhin has ran deep for many years. Also, there’s fat chance Putin would allow Prigozhin to freely travel back and forth to Belarus AND allow him to have his own mercenary army, if this was a legitimate coup. If you read up on PMC Wagner, you will understand how vital they are to achieving Russia’s objectives abroad. They’ve made Putin rich off the backs or many African countries. Prigozhin would be in solitary confinement with a ball and chain cuffed to both legs right now, if that was a legit mutiny. They wouldn’t need to poison him or push him out of a window. It would have been high treason, after all. Just arrest him and let the Russian courts do what they do. Yet, he’s allowed to travel freely and keep his mercenary army. There are some other lesser motives that were likely at play too. It is possible Prigozhin stole a bunch of money from NATO to pull this off. There was a $6.2 billion “rounding error” in Ukrainian aid the US reported a few days before this “mutiny” occurred. It creates confusion for the West as to what Putin’s future intentions are with this highly skilled mercenary army. I would venture to say Wagner was in Ukraine for the primary purpose of helping to train Russian infantry. They did some fighting as well, but you haven’t seen Russia lose any territory in the areas Wagner was working in (Bakhmut) since Wagner left. This is what PMC Wagner does. They come in, help train armies and then move on after a few months. They’ve been doing this for years in Africa. Likely too, they get a vacation from the fighting for a few weeks at a time, since they are not regular military. Soldiers need r&r, so just another small motive at play here for running a psyop.
changing topics, what is your take on the Wagner group and the Suwalki corridor / Poland border? Wagner troops moving towards Polish border and could try sneaking across, PM says | CNN
My take is it would be an Article V trigger if they did. But given how this Administration does not want to do even the common-sense measures to put Russia under more pressure, I would expect the Administration to deny even irrefutable evidence it was happening just as the Obama Administration denied that Russian regular troops had invaded Ukraine in 2014, calling them Ukrainian separatists maybe supported indirectly by Russia, despite the evidence we had then.
I believe the troop movement is a response to Poland moving their own troops closer to the Belarusian border, as I understand it. Zero chance Wagner will move on Poland. I mean, there are a million ways Russia could start WW3, but they're not going to. If they were, f*** sending a few thousand troops to the border. Just start firing nukes. Putin and Lukashenko know they would be defeated within hours in a land battle against NATO.
I'm not a Biden defender by any stretch and see him as the pathological liar that he is, but I can't imagine a scenario where Biden would deny Wagner/Belarusian/Russian troops made an incursion into Poland. I believe the Obama administration made it clear what they thought happened and Obama was correct to let it be for the most part.
