Popular sentiment in Russia from UK paper … “The head of RT propaganda media empire Margarita Simonyan - a close Putin ally - said she suspected the attack on the Crimean Bridge was carried out "with the help of British intelligence.” She threatened: "Does this make Tower Bridge a legitimate target? For me, that's quite it.” Prediction: the supposedly unhinged Putin will allow the West to cross his 37th red line.
Yes, I was assuming if Russia was to retake Kharkiv with that amount of force (100,000 or so men - per Ukrainian sources), they already have what they believe to be the resources needed on hand to create a strong perimeter around the city like they have done in the south and east along the front line. An extension of that sort of dug in front line which encapsulates Kharkiv would be catastrophic for Ukraine’s prospects going forward. Bargaining as Russia holds the 2nd largest city has a lot less favorable outcome for Ukraine. I still believe Russia would rather seal off Odesa and the Black Sea, but no Kharkiv would make Ukraine’s ascension to NATO pretty difficult as well. Seems as though Russia wants to retake the city and with enough reserve on hand to hold the city for the long haul, unlike last go around. Also, taking Kharkiv would only be a boon to Russia’s policy at home, as it is deeply embedded with an ethnic Russian population and connections to Russia. I simply don’t think Ukraine has enough to force any type of change inside Russia. Since we’ve last had this convo, Ukraine hasn’t done themselves any favors in that regard by blowing up the main civilian passageway to Crimea and attacking Belgorod again. All that does is reinforce what the Kremlin is telling the Russian public.
Erdogan in Turkey turns on Putin, now supports Ukraine to join NATO. Erdogan lost faith in Putin the Strongman after the mutiny. Putin is losing friends faster than he can buy them. A recent visit from Zelenskyy to Turkey is credited with the about-face in Turkey. Putin cannot seem to match Zelenskyy's leadership abilities. David Kirichenko: Turkey now senses Russia to be the sick man of Europe
Ukraine has a new battle standard for Bradley's in combat. Each Bradley is now expected to knock out two T-72 tanks per battle, thanks to the exploits of this crew in Zaporizhzhya front. Ukrainian Bradley IFV obliterates two Russian T-72 tanks in single battle
Deep dive on how long Ukraine can realistically hang on, given demographic collapse. Note: WWII Germany collapsed after losing 3.75% of its total population …
Population loss is only one metric of the struggle to keep fighting. Germany had been fighting for almost six years when they gave up. Some of their cities were destroyed to a degree of 90% or more (like Cologne), bombed relentlessly from the air. Their war factories were bombed out to the point they were making weapons components in basements and caves. Their people were starving because no other country was smuggling food into Germany for them. And, of course, there was probably the sense that what their government was doing (invading other countries) was wrong.
I would say with the video on Telegram of Prigozhin in Belarus and Wagner fighters arriving at the Belarusian camp in convoys, this is all a psyop from the beginning. There's no chance Prigozhin would be given any freedom to leave Russia if the mutiny was legitimate. And yes, I know there were a few choppers shot down, likely followed with a big yawn by Putin. Not even Lukashenko is trustworthy enough to Putin for keeping tabs on a guy like Prigozhin. Purpose of the psyop you ask? Likely to rally the troops for the storming operation of Kharkiv, that will inevitably cause losses on par with Bakhmut. Troops need R&R to recoup (hence rotation of troops to barracks in Belarus, where they can theater Kharkiv). If in August, Wagner is on the front line in Kharkiv, then we can be fairly confident this was all a stunt to: 1) confuse the west 2) mask troop movements and R&R 3) give the Wagner troops storming trenches the feeling they, and not the Red Army, are the heroes securing glory for Russia.
If mutiny was indeed a psyop, the West may have some exposure as there is some talk floating around of NATO greasing the wheels of said “mutiny.”
Are you out of your mind? Mutiny to rally the troops to storm Kharkiv? Russian troops were likely struck by paralysis waiting to see if there would be a new government in Moscow. I can't think of a better way to distract troops from their job, and call their sense of purpose and commitment into doubt. The mutiny was a great positive for Ukraine (and no doubt it provided comic relief). Why does Russia need to mask troop movements? This has largely been a war dominated by trench and mine warfare in recent months. There are no grand sweeping movements on either side to try to get around the enemy. I think you have been getting too much of your news from Fox News and Tucker Carlson and their conspiracy theories.
As the analysis shows, Ukraine was a demographic mess BEFORE being pulverized three times over (the number of proxy armies Russia has destroyed). But on the subject of WWII, I’m beginning to think this is WWII European Theatre all over again with Ukraine playing the role of the Germans. In other words, a massive army vs an even more massive army and with a battlefield intensity the world has not seen since WWII and possibly since WWI. Add: listened to a British podcast today in which the host suggested that the war is at a Kursk-like tipping point. Of course it was all downhill for Germany after that.
Russia AND Ukraine showing the world how brittle America is. Americans still deeply scarred by unarmed selfie-taking idiots in the Capitol two and a half years ago.
Putin wanted his own version of NATO to threaten NATO with. Only one problem: no one trusts Putin or Russia. His NATO was called CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization). The membership included Russia, Armenia, Khazakstan, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. When polled on what their primary security concerns were, they responded: 1) Russia. 2) Each other. 3) Wild goats. NATO polled at 29. As you can imagine, this organization has been fairly useless. Putin wanted his own version of NATO. Instead he has a failing alliance that has only made him look weaker since the invasion of Ukraine.
Anyone can easily perceive that Germany had no outside assistance and was fighting a war on two major fronts--very difficult. They were also fighting the country with the greatest manufacturing capability the world had ever known (and that country was insulated from the devastation of the war by a large ocean). They were also occupying many countries, which required military resources to fight partisans and control the population. If anything, Russia is much closer to the WWII Germany analogy than Ukraine. The only thing that Ukraine has in common with WWII Germany is superior military technology to the opponent (and the U.S. was rapidly catching up to Germany by the end of WWII). Once Ukraine starts breaking through Russian defenses faster than Russia can rebuild them, it will be all downhill for Russia after that. Don't you worry about that.
Russia increases maximum age for military conscripts to an eye-opening 70 years old. Nothing screams desperation like grandpa fumbling his teeth while his carbine falls out of his hands. Russia is trying to keep its army going by raising the age for military call-ups by 5 years, with some reservists able to be mobilized at 70
That the world’s second most capable army is being destroyed makes Russia’s impending victory all the more impressive … Ukraine and the West are facing a devastating defeat
When we Muricans think of ‘propoganda’ our thoughts turn to Goebbels and Germany. Hell, we’ve raised it to an art form. Just stand askance, for a moment, marvel at the elaborate ruse … The Media and Ukraine War Coverage: Where Truth Takes a Holiday | Connor O'Keeffe
