I would like to know why the need for 3,000 additional reservists being called up and sent to Europe if Russia has already lost the war? This on the heels of sending cluster munitions to Ukraine, which drew the ire of NATO. If Russia has "already lost", why are we escalating?
Maybe we're sending the reservists to train Ukrainian troops on the newer weapons systems that we have been providing to Ukraine including training on maintenance?
The 3,000 reservists will likely be stationed in Poland as a symbolic tripwire. Of course there is no reason to believe that Russia will attack Poland, except in the fevered imaginations of Poles.
The greater point is that even if Russia wins the military war tomorrow and takes over Ukraine, they lost in the Big Picture. They would be a bankrupt pariah state with limited ability to afford to rebuild their own military. Ukraine would have enough partisan activity that Russia would not be able to maintain the peace throughout Ukraine. The Russian economy would collapse within a few years, if not months. The longer that Ukraine holds out and continues fighting against Russia, the shorter the timeline for Russia's collapse, and the uglier that collapse will be (think: violent coup, buildings burning in Moscow, etc.). Could be worse than 1991. A lot worse.
“… even if Russia wins the military war tomorrow and takes over Ukraine …”. I’m going to keep putting these in the fridge to keep them fresh.
Categorically disagree with this. If Russia wins anything in this war, then it wins strategically. We can’t go fooling ourselves with any different notion here.
We’ve come always, on THFSG, from bumbling Russia can’t get out of its own way to “We can’t let Russia win!” What does that entail! Are any of you ready to send our boys and girls to Ukraine ?
Collapsing ruble down 35%, collapsing current account down by 93%, collapsing energy revenue by 36%, collapsing cars sales down 67% in 2 years, millions of fleeing citizens. 5 stats show how Russia's economy is withering Russia's economy is a shadow of what it was 16 months ago. Before Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and prior to the onset of historic sanctions, Moscow commanded the world's 11th largest economy and played a key role as a reliable, wide-reaching energy exporter. Now however, from a weakening currency to tepid trade, all signs point to a sharp deterioration with no end in sight. "Russia might collapse into multiple pieces, like the Soviet Union, and that might not be a bad thing for the world," Volodymyr Lugovskyy, an economics professor at Indiana University, told Insider this week. "It's resembling an empire right now, with a central power. Extreme events are highly possible."
I agree that it's a loss for civilized society if Russia wins. Putin would stay in power much longer with a military win. But Russia will be hurting for a long time economically whether they win or lose at this point. Especially with countries like the U.S., Taiwan, and the Netherlands restricting Russia's access to computer chips, and the bigger economies of Europe refusing to do business with Russia. There are resources that they can take from Ukraine, but that will likely be limited by partisan resistance from Ukrainians. China's economy is weakening, and India is leaning toward improving relations with the U.S. and Europe.
Damn! Now The Hill’s on the Kremlin payroll … https://thehill.com/opinion/interna...ins-impending-demise-are-greatly-exaggerated/
What is China’s next move if we allow Russia to normalize conquest? How long will Taiwan stop selling Russia chips after China makes that move?
^ People who have me on ignore making my points for me. While pouring $150 billion into a losing cause, China is going strength to strength. Not that it intends to pursue war with us. But bottom-feeders in Washington want to go to war with China.
Or... another political story with zero facts to back it up... made up by the Biden and his political clowns.
It depends on whether China believes that the U.S., under Biden or the next president, is willing to commit U.S. forces to defending Taiwan. In another 5-10 years, the U.S. will be making its own computer chips in large quantities, so we will not need to get so much of our chips from Taiwan. And who knows what the administration then will be willing to do in the event of a war. However, Taiwan will be more able to defend itself than they are today--they are investing heavily in their own defense hardware and increasing the length of mandatory military service. No doubt that China has seen the capabilities of 40-year-old U.S. military technology in action, and has to be fairly concerned with what our most modern technology can do.
Yes, all of that is true … at the moment. But the calculus changes the instant we say, “This is too hard. I’m getting tired from my sofa watching Ukraine fight Russia. Why can’t we just let Russia have it?”
^ Sad that “we could have just let Russia have” the portion of Ukraine that it ended up taken through laying Ukraine to waste and savaging a generation of its men.”
