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War in Ukraine

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by PITBOSS, Jan 21, 2022.

  1. okeechobee

    okeechobee GC Hall of Fame

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    Top Dems break with Biden over sending cluster bombs to Ukraine

    Oops, looks like we have some "Pooty sympathizers" within the ranks of the Democratic Party. Or perhaps they realize how crazy this decision is. A weapon the Biden administration was ridiculing Russia for using in Ukraine a year ago, is being sent to Ukraine to use on its own people, by the U.S. These munitions will absolutely take out more civilians than they will enemy. The UK and Spain, also huge "Pooty sympathizers", have openly opposed the unilateral move. At the risk of sounding like a "Pooty sympathizer" myself, I should remind you all that this move doesn't spell confidence in the progress of the Ukrainian military's counteroffensive. Putin calls it desperation. I see it as possibly a bait to irk Putin enough to use tacticals. I really hope I'm wrong.

    In any case, what I'm very confident in is that this was the wrong decision to send these munitions to Ukraine. It will not have a good outcome for the United States.
     
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  2. slayerxing

    slayerxing GC Hall of Fame

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    The cluster bomb stuff is dumb. Russia has already used cluster munitions on actual Ukrainian civilians. But god forbid Ukraine shoots them at Russian soldiers…

    the us has almost 5 million 155 cluster shells. Ukraine is running low on 155 shells. This keeps them well stocked for at least another full year.

    this post lays at the math that drive the need for this decision. Ukraine Update: How cluster munitions will address Ukraine's ammunition issues

    The problem is pretty clear. The U.S. and the EU combined only produce around 60~65K shells per month.This 65K must be compared to Ukraine’s actual usage, which is around 110K, and is even further short of their stated ideal of 356K shells.

    All told, the EU has sent an estimated 350,000 shells to Ukraine, while the U.S. has sent around 1.5M as of May. Most of these shells have been procured by gathering up stockpiled shells, rather than newly manufactured ones. Based on ammunition deliveries reported and U.S./EU production capacity, a further 120~130,000 shells were likely delivered—a total just a little short of roughly 2M shells.

    Ukraine began first receiving 155 mm artillery in May 2022, or about 17 months ago. Shell consumption was likely lower in those first months before it began receiving major shipments of 155 mm howitzers in the fall. If we assume consumption of 30,000 shells per month from May to August, then 110,000 shells per month thereafter, Ukraine may have consumed around 1.6M shells, leaving a stockpile of only around 400,000 155 mm shells, or about a three-month supply, assuming Ukraine is being quite judicious with its artillery.

    Even if NATO nations continue to send essentially their entire production capacity to Ukraine, the shortfall of 50,000+ shells would consume what remains of Ukraine’s 155 mm stocks by early spring 2024—or sooner, if Ukraine’s shell consumption has accelerated after the beginning of the counteroffensive, which it almost certainly has.
     
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  3. slayerxing

    slayerxing GC Hall of Fame

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    While the legacy of cluster munitions is unexploded ordinance killing children (yeah they suck really bad) - Ukraine is in a war for survival. I'm sure they would rather not shoot any ordinance at all at anyone, certainly not in positions being held by enemy troops in their own territory. But unfortunately the Russian's haven't left them much choice in the matter. I'm sure if Russia would just politely withdraw the Ukrainians would be fine not using them.

    And for those people decrying US involvement as somehow detracting from our ability to take care of our business at home - they should be assuaged by the fact that we were sitting on 5 million shells that we would probably never use. This costs us almost nothing, and helps Ukraine tremendously. 1 because of the ammo shortage, and 2 because they are ideal for clearing trenches.

    Zelenskyy, in blasting the Bulgarian president a couple of days ago -lays it out pretty nicely why we should arm Ukraine with whatever we have and stop the hand-wringing.
    Zelenskyy mauls Bulgarian president over his opposition to arming Ukraine
     
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  4. PITBOSS

    PITBOSS GC Hall of Fame

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    Correct, thanks to the US/west. Without US/NATO aid and intelligence from day 1, Russia’s invasion would have had a vastly different outcome.
     
    Last edited: Jul 9, 2023
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  5. citygator

    citygator VIP Member

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    Charlotte
    On the economic front the ruble is rubble.

    IMG_0174.jpeg
     
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  6. ursidman

    ursidman VIP Member

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    Bug Tussle NC
    Balderdash

    With just a modicum of mental effort I’m sure it will come to you how a country fighting for its very existence and the lives of its people from an invading and lethal force is doing more than border enforcement
     
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  7. duggers_dad

    duggers_dad GC Hall of Fame

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    No matter, Banderites will just use them on civilians …

     
  8. duggers_dad

    duggers_dad GC Hall of Fame

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  9. ajoseph

    ajoseph Premium Member

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    Bring yourself back to Feb 2022, when the world thought Russia had an invincible military.

    Additionally, you’ll remember that when Germany took Sudetenland, their military was I’ll-equipped to fight even a regional war,must less a global war. Stopping them then would have stopped the bloodiest conflict in world history. Maybe there’s lesson learned there,too.
     
  10. PITBOSS

    PITBOSS GC Hall of Fame

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    Similar to a lot of equipment we send them. A version or two older. ie we sent them 300 Vietnam era m113 APCs. Also 120 Bradley m2a2. We use version M3s and are in process of awarding a contract for the next gen armored vehicle to replace the Bradley. We have over 4000 Bradleys in inventory.
     
  11. ajoseph

    ajoseph Premium Member

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    Cluster munitions is a serious and fairly debated argument, for sure. But one point remains — Russia is using them on Ukrainians. Why shouldn’t Ukrainians use them for the same purpose? It’s not an easy answer.
     
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  12. duggers_dad

    duggers_dad GC Hall of Fame

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    This crowd be like: (A) Russia a paper tiger and (B) if not stopped will overrun Europe.
     
  13. PITBOSS

    PITBOSS GC Hall of Fame

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    post 19023 made a good point - “Ukraine is in a war for survival.” Ukraine now know they stand between the Russian army and hellish atrocities that army will inflict on civilians. Also , Ukraine is making that decision on their country’s land. (vs Russia). But cluster munitions along with land mines will be a problem for them for many many years.
     
    Last edited: Jul 9, 2023
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  14. duggers_dad

    duggers_dad GC Hall of Fame

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    So it’s Ukrainian civilians who are throwing themselves against Russian defensive lines ?

    Evil Russians!
     
  15. OklahomaGator

    OklahomaGator Jedi Administrator Moderator VIP Member

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    So NATO and Russia are cleaning out their supply of older out of date weapons. That should save the countries some money on simply maintaining those weapons in storage.
     
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  16. chemgator

    chemgator GC Hall of Fame

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    Months . . . days . . . to a propaganda artist, it's all semantics and fully adjustable.
     
  17. chemgator

    chemgator GC Hall of Fame

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    Why would China need to collaborate with Mexico (or anyone else) to destabilize and weaken the U.S.? They do just fine stealing our technology without anyone's help.
     
  18. PITBOSS

    PITBOSS GC Hall of Fame

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    Russia appears to be cleaning out old and new armor and their missiles. But are holding their AF back.
     
  19. chemgator

    chemgator GC Hall of Fame

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    Everyone knows that there is another side to the story, and that it is fueled by Russian (Putin) paranoia and twisted worldview. He could choose to accept the fact that European countries are nervous having an armed and dangerous Russia nearby, and try to earn their trust by reducing the size of their military and spying apparatus. But Putin can't do that. He has to win the battle with Europe and the U.S., and invading Ukraine is the first step in accomplishing that. Competing economically is not an option.

    Putin grew up thinking that Russia dominating and subjugating eastern European countries is their birthright. After all, the USSR set up the puppet governments in these countries after WWII and enforced their rule of law over them. It has not occurred to him that the eastern European countries might not see things the same way.
     
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  20. duggers_dad

    duggers_dad GC Hall of Fame

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    The irony is we resolved to to war with the nation, Russia which, as it turns out, was not actively working to destabilize the U.S.
     
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