339k new jobs in May

Even ultra conservative WSJ loves the report:

The latest jobs report put an end to a streak of hiring data topping economists' expectations. That doesn't mean the economy is headed for a downturn.

The June report paints a picture of a labor market that is still historically tight, with the unemployment rate hovering around some of the lowest levels ever. Ronald Temple, chief market strategist at Lazard, points out that the U.S. has been adding jobs at a clip rarely seen pre-pandemic.

"The last time the U.S. created this many jobs per month over a six-month period pre-pandemic was 1999," Temple said in emailed comments.

And some investors said they are positioning for the latest stock market rally to continue, a wager that the bull market may just be getting started. "We don't see the recession" in the data, said Julien Stouff, founder of hedge-fund firm Stouff Capital in Geneva.

The Jobs Report Missed Expectations. Don't Bet on a Recession Just Yet.

 

1999 is a pretty ominous comparison, though. The last good year of a long bull run, followed by 15 years sideways movement. It wasn't until 2016 that we got and stayed above the 1999/early 2000 highs.

 

Doesn’t feel like there are any over valuation bubbles anywhere though. I know that’s pretty scientific analysis I just provided so I bet you feel better. Lol.

 

Yeah, I agree. The big question for me isn't so much "is this bubble", because I don't think it is, but if the interest rates are going to grind the economy into a recession, as some think. Heck, some think the Feds goal is to cause a recession and fully "reset" demand to stop inflation, and they won't stop until they do.

 

I don't know, real estate got a bit crazy.

 

Trouble is prices have pretty much held despite the higher rates.
Housing shortage is the reason, as well as current owners not wanting to part with lower rate mortgages (less people wanting to trade up).

More to the op, the markets were expecting two more hikes, now that there is some lower jobs numbers maybe just one next month. Market wants the fed to be done then it wants to run. Trouble is how much effect hasn’t been circulated into the economy and what happens 6-9 months out. Europe has lower growth and higher inflation and some think that could be a drag for the US.

 

shelter prices have apparently been dropping for a while but for reasons I don’t fully understand there’s a lag and it’s not captured in the data contemporaneously.

 

Because present day new rents, for new leases may be dropping, but most people won’t actually experience that drop until their lease renews, which could be as long as 12 months in the future. CPI measures actual inflation experienced by consumers so until your fixed lease renews you don’t experience the actual inflation or deflation.

Also, that is for rentals. For homeowners they estimate inflation by estimated rents for those homes, as if they were rented. Those estimates are based on local rental rates and surveys of homeowners of what they think hey can rent it for. Clearly it isn’t a highly precise estimate in the short term.

 

Geez. I wont be trading my 2.5% rate anytime soon.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/06/mortgage-rate-soars-after-strong-economic-data.html

The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage hit 7.22% on Thursday, according to Mortgage News Daily. That’s the highest point since early November.

Mortgage rates follow loosely the yield on the 10-year Treasury, which leapt higher following a much stronger-than-expected employment report from ADP.


Rates had already begun rising last week, following signals from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell that the central bank may continue raising interest rates following a pause in June.

In remarks to Congress just after the June Fed meeting, Powell said the central bank has “a long way to go” to bring inflation back to the 2% goal. The next interest rate decision is on July 26.

 

The June jobs number was mostly government jobs (60,000), healthcare and social services.
It was not a private-sector fueled job report, but rather from deficit spending which is not sustainable.
And the nation actually lost a total of 110,000 jobs from revisions to the prior two months of April and May.
452,000 jobs were part-time from those previously working full time but couldn't find full-time employment.
Doesn't bode well for the future.

 

So non-farm payrolls came in well below expectations by rising 209,000, but even that was the lowest since December 2020. Now hang on a second. The prior two months were revised down by 110,000. So, actually, we saw only a 99,000 new job gain in June. That is a very poor number.”

 

You really think the employment numbers are bad??”

 

That ISM data is looking dire. US Manufacturing PMI is a leading indicator. Demand has come to a screeching halt.

 

He can barely contain his glee at the induced recession