I would have agreed with this before the invasion. It was such a stupid move by Russia to invade. I thought that all they were doing was saber rattling to get the price of oil up. I was wrong there. Bombing or damaging the nuclear plant is an equal or perhaps more stupid move. I don’t think we can count out Russia doing an extraordinarily stupid move. Whatever they are using for logic it might make sense.
Ukraine has not given up the offensive. I think people are just underestimating how long it takes to clear these massive minefields wall also under fire.
Key: Whatever they are using for logic: Answer: Personal power and prestige, and of course sacking Ukraine and doling out the spoils of war. Scum like that WILL use nukes because of their lack of empathy, greed and of course their personal "Nero" complex.
I think you might be right. I am just not certain that Putin is Bond level evil or that stupid. If he destroys the nuclear plant, he would find out how outclassed his military is. The Ukrainians have been using our 20 and 30 year old weapons. Our new stuff is almost unbelievable.
I did some additional research and must admit I was incorrect. It appears the numbers are in question on the Russian side, so who knows who is truly losing what. You are correct though, typically an offensive loses more vehicles. Regarding @dingyibvs post above, I agree with that assessment as well. A counteroffensive's success is generally measured in how much territory it is able to recapture.
Russia's central bank lowered its key rate to 7.50% back in September 2022, which matched pre-invasion levels. When the invasion commenced, the Ruble was in a free fall and the value dropped to as low as 134 RUB per USD. Bank runs started taking place. The Russian central bank reacted by raising its key rate to 20% within days and capital flight came to a screeching halt. The RUB hit its highest value relative to the USD in 7 years last summer, 3 months after the invasion commenced. Hence, the central bank loosened rates again to pre-invasion, pre-sanctions levels. Looks like they might have to lift rates a bit again to keep capital in and prop up the Ruble. I don't believe for a second we're crashing their economy. Reports I'm seeing indicate as low as 3% unemployment and Russian oil exports are higher today than they were pre-invasion, pre-sanctions due to China and India stepping in as buyers. Which is really due to Western sanctions, because China and India are able to purchase the oil at below market rate due to the sanctions cap on how much they are allowed to pay Russia for the oil. Nonetheless, Russia is exporting more oil today than prior to the invasion. So, great job Western allies for moving China and India closer to Russian petrol dependency and providing a lifeline to Putin. I suppose we can claim a moral victory there as we were able to finally get Germany to stop sending so much money to Moscow. The only thing that could truly screw Russia's economy is if world oil prices collapsed in a big way, ala Covid. The main issue with the collapsing Russian economy theory is you have the largest exporter in the world still doing business as usual with Russia and in many ways have increased business dealings with them. Also, Russian exports today, even with the sanctions, are still six times greater than Ukraine's exports. That may only get worse with time. Ukraine doesn't have a high-priced commodity like oil or gas to export in mass quantity. So Ukraine has almost no internal funding for their war machine and are totally reliant on Western partners to prop them up. While Russia have made some silly moves on the battlefield and their military has woefully underperformed versus expectation, their management of the economy given all of the sanctions and general feeling of anger many former trading partners have towards them, has been quite shrewd. Just as many Western analysts wrongly predicted an easy Russian victory before the invasion, they have wrongly assessed Russia's acumen to address the truckload of Western sanctions that have been placed against them. It's almost as if Russia had a contingency plan drawn up prior to invasion and they've executed it quite well. That is really the key. Russia can look stupid for another 2 or 3 years on the battlefield, but as long as they have the capital inflows at home, they always have the advantage of being able to re-tool and re-approach, while their citizens still eat cake just as they did before. As I mentioned yesterday, the past 6 months of the war have been a virtual stalemate, with perhaps a very slight edge to Russia for taking Bakhmut and successfully building a strong barrier along their entire front line prior to the counteroffensive. The only way Ukraine wins anything of significance from here is if NATO troops step in, which isn't happening unless Putin does something crazy with tactical nukes. NATO wants to make Russia bleed. For how much longer, who knows. The issue is Putin doesn't care about the bleeding. In Putin's eyes, as long as Russia's security concerns are met and he can annex or carve out autonomy for much of the current occupied area with a settlement, he'll be able to claim victory at home and Ukraine's NATO dream will be set back for probably a couple of decades at least. With the Russian land bridge to Crimea in tact, there's simply no way Ukraine will be able to meet the demands of being a NATO contributor anytime soon. My guess is Zelenskyy will concede that in the end and agree to not joining NATO. Perhaps behind closed doors setting it as a long term goal once they've rebuilt their country and can build up an economic engine that allows them to self-generate. Ukraine also has another issue in that it's questionable how many of the refugees will return home to help the rebuilding effort. They've been given essential equal rights to the citizens of the EU and are spread out pretty evenly throughout the EU in countries like Poland, Germany, the Baltics, Netherlands, Belgium, France, the UK and Spain. As we know from experience here in the States, now that this has happened, it's unlikely the EU is going to deport Ukrainian refugees back to Ukraine after all of this is over. If the women were single or their husband was KIA in the war, it's highly unlikely these women will voluntarily move back to a much poorer part of the world when they can travel throughout the EU unimpeded and have established new roots there during this crisis.
Ukranian Podcaster Updates: Podcasters are reporing some decent Ukranian gains, especially with the pincers N and S or Bahkmut. The small bridgehead over the Denieper still holds despite Russian claims. Even hardcore Putin acolytes, like Duggars Dad, will have no excuse or believable apologist answer for Putin, should Bahkmut fall. This is strictly speculative on my part but it just might be that the material and resource battle fought by both sides may be turning Ukraine's way. A steady stream of T55's (Stalin Era) junk tanks are headed from Russia to the front according to video streams. These tanks are so ancient and of such low quality that they are filled with explosives and driven unaccompanied by humans as big metal "battering ram" bombs. I DO NOT trust Western sources 100% on all things conflict related, such as the current statistic being floated that Russia is only capable of producing 200 Armata or T-90's per year. If this is true, Russia is in big trouble because according to sources the imbalance of tanks, at least in terms of more modern MBT's, is begginning to swing much more favorably to Ukraine. Real battlefield statistics are difficult to accurately determine although I suspect Western sources are more accurate than Russian ones. We should watcxh closely what is going on at the big nuclear power plant. If I were the Ukranian Gov't I would begin a steady evacuation of the area where winds are expected to blow, should the ski's blow it up. Regrettably I suspect some terrible "accident" will occur there as part of Puke-Ins strategy when they start retreating. I could care less what the Russian / Putin lovers post on this board. Any moron can see this entire enterprise has turned into a GIGANTIC F-Up for the totalitarian criminals that hold power in that backward fifedom. I am optimistic we will see some portion of the front collapse with a substantial ski retreat and probably before July is over. Take that Ivan lovers...................
too am seeing consistent reports of progress, both in softening up Russian assets/defenses and in actual territorial gain, and am cautiously optimistic
I have seen versions of this as explaining that much is occurring beyond territorial gain "Ukraine is executing a deliberate campaign to disrupt Russian elements in rear areas, and at the same time keep them off balance at multiple points along the front. I have also read that Bakhmut will present special problems because of the shallowness of Russian forces there due to Wagner, prior devastation, and something about geography. A breakthrough there will require some special Russian measures that weaken other areas. Going from memory. This seems to me as more evidence why both sides understood that Bakhmut had greater importance than most realized.
Historically the Ukrainians have performed very well advancing into areas where the Russians are largely absent.
I've said since before the counteroffensive that the smarter move for Ukraine would be to go after Bakhmut instead of Crimea. It would be an achievable target, and it'd be enough to keep western aid flowing. They really should've done it earlier and really concentrated on it. Had they taken it before the Wagner insurrection it could've given Prigozhin a lot more legitimacy and his coup might have succeeded.
