Welcome home, fellow Gator.

The Gator Nation's oldest and most active insider community
Join today!
  1. Hi there... Can you please quickly check to make sure your email address is up to date here? Just in case we need to reach out to you or you lose your password. Muchero thanks!

Fed’s Inflation gauge falls to lowest level in 2 years

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by citygator, Jun 30, 2023.

  1. buckeyegator

    buckeyegator Premium Member

    73,272
    1,949
    3,883
    Oct 29, 2007
    gainesville, florida
    wow, so many janet yellen's here, who knew?
     
  2. docspor

    docspor GC Hall of Fame

    5,871
    1,859
    3,078
    Nov 30, 2010
    Hey mom! I know what chicken is, I must be a chef.
     
    • Funny Funny x 3
    • Dislike Dislike x 1
  3. ATLGATORFAN

    ATLGATORFAN Premium Member

    3,750
    981
    2,153
    Aug 10, 2015
    Yes inflating is coming back down, but that also means those higher prices on Everything are here to stay.
     
  4. Sohogator

    Sohogator GC Hall of Fame

    3,568
    576
    358
    Aug 22, 2012
    Inflation > deflation.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  5. citygator

    citygator VIP Member

    12,034
    2,628
    3,303
    Apr 3, 2007
    Charlotte
    Sorry about your personal situation. Stock market is higher now than at any point under Trump. Personal savings is at historical levels. Recent savings is down from peak pandemic rates when people stopped spending but it isn’t down to history. Plus if you own a home you are really good. My personal opinion is that the economy is better than the sentiment so hopefully investments continue up. Recession talk for the last 18months has been premature.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  6. citygator

    citygator VIP Member

    12,034
    2,628
    3,303
    Apr 3, 2007
    Charlotte
    So are higher wages.

    Low-wage workers have seen historically fast real wage growth in the pandemic business cycle: Policy investments translate into better opportunities for the lowest-paid workers

    workers over the last three years
    Our analysis focuses on changes in real wages between 2019 and 2022. In this report, we largely ignore what happened in the intervening years—2020 and 2021—given labor market dynamics that caused dramatic swings in job losses and gains.1

    We divide the wage distribution into roughly five groups to uncover recent wage trends at different wage levels. Figure A displays wage growth at the 10th percentile (“low-wage”), the average of the 20th–40th percentiles (“lower-middle-wage”), the average of the 40th–60th percentiles (“middle-wage”), the average of the 60th–80th percentiles (“upper-middle-wage”), and the 90th percentile (“high-wage”) using Current Population Survey (CPS) Outgoing Rotation Group microdata (EPI 2023a). See the appendix for more information about why and how we selected these data measures and their robustness to our conclusions throughout this report.

    Real wage growth at the 10th percentile was exceptionally strong—even in the face of high inflation
    Between 2019 and 2022, hourly wage growth was strongest at the bottom of the wage distribution. The 10th-percentile real hourly wage grew 9.0% over the three-year period. When we look across the wage distribution, we see wage growth declining for each successive wage group until we reach the high-wage group. Compared with the 9.0% wage growth at the bottom, growth was less than half as fast for lower-middle-wage workers (3.9%) and less than one-third as fast for middle-wage workers (2.4%) between 2019 and 2022. Upper-middle wages grew even more slowly at 1.8% over the three-year period, while the 90th-percentile wage grew 4.9%—faster than the middle wages, but not as fast as the 10th-percentile wage.
     
  7. ATLGATORFAN

    ATLGATORFAN Premium Member

    3,750
    981
    2,153
    Aug 10, 2015
    waay too general Danielson.
     
    • Disagree Bacon! Disagree Bacon! x 1
  8. BigCypressGator1981

    BigCypressGator1981 GC Hall of Fame

    6,707
    1,374
    3,103
    Oct 11, 2011
    You haven’t gotten a raise in 2 years. This is my surprised face.
     
    • Funny Funny x 3
  9. cron78

    cron78 GC Hall of Fame

    1,258
    554
    268
    Feb 25, 2022
    My take is that all economies fluctuate and our US economy is no exception. I also believe that the American public and businesses are what save it every time, despite what repub or dem govt hacks think they do to deserve credit.
     
    • Agree Agree x 3
  10. ATLGATORFAN

    ATLGATORFAN Premium Member

    3,750
    981
    2,153
    Aug 10, 2015
    Maybe you’re right, and I will admit most of my data is anedoctally based. I will also say it’s not lost on me that people are throwing money around and that’s coming from somewhere. what I have experienced in my my personal basket of goods (CPI) and that is what we spend money. Our property taxes this coming year are up significantly from past. My homeowner has gone from $1600 to $3500 in last few years. I bought a used car for my 17yo. I scoured the city to find anything that wasn’t pure garbage and had to pay $11,000 for a 10yo civic that should have been about $6500. My wife does extremely well. We drove by the maecedes dealership just for kicks. We looked at a GLS450 and it was $150,000. Those cars were $90,000 not too long ago. We had a pool estimate couple years ago and it was $90,000. When we went back recently to ask about getting started the exact same pool was $160,000. Those are not 5’or 6% inflation. But again those are just my personal CPI
     
    • Winner Winner x 1
  11. homer

    homer GC Hall of Fame

    2,750
    852
    2,078
    Nov 2, 2015
    Y’all can argue why all day.

    All I got to say is “bless all our hearts”.
     
    • Like Like x 1
  12. Sohogator

    Sohogator GC Hall of Fame

    3,568
    576
    358
    Aug 22, 2012
    Dude I know my cars the Merc GLS 450 is still 90K. You left out the fact that you were looking at the GLS 63 AMG that has every creature comfort known to man and one that produces 600hp that propels it to a 3.5 zero to sixty time.

    Cool story though.
     
  13. pkaib01

    pkaib01 GC Hall of Fame

    3,814
    808
    2,063
    Apr 3, 2007
    No kidding. I was poking fun at all those that blamed Biden for inflation when economic drivers to inflation were, for the most part, beyond the reach of the exec branch.
     
  14. citygator

    citygator VIP Member

    12,034
    2,628
    3,303
    Apr 3, 2007
    Charlotte
    It’s true there are many stories which is why they measure many things for many folks. I have a record high house valuation, have a record number of kids off my payroll, got a record high amount for my used 4Runner and paid a reasonable amount for a new one, earned a record high income level and paid a record high in taxes. My health insurance and car insurance went up less than my income so they are smaller to me.

    I find people only remember what they pay for stuff and not what they earn. My dad made $700 a month as an naval officer at one time but paid $3,000 for a new car. He remembers that car cost. Has no idea what his pay was. Lol.
     
  15. ATLGATORFAN

    ATLGATORFAN Premium Member

    3,750
    981
    2,153
    Aug 10, 2015
    all fair points. And yes we are fortunate to be able to afford whatever we want, but we both live well below our means so the costs of items increasing substantially stands out to us. We aren’t going to pay 160,000 for a pool.

    And for soho, I’ll be the first to say I’m not a car guy and when we stopped by that day what I do remember is they had 3 SUVs available. 2 G wagons which we think are ugly and they were both over 200k and 1 GLS and it was 150k out the door. Maybe it was a 550 vs 450. Just for grins I looked up our local dealer. They had one. And it’s 120k out the door and it’s not an AMG. Cool

    city. Props to your dad for serving. I train and work with all sorts of first responders and vets and most are first rate.
     
    Last edited: Jul 1, 2023
    • Like Like x 1
  16. danmanne65

    danmanne65 GC Hall of Fame

    4,014
    855
    268
    Jul 2, 2022
    DeLand
    When I decided to buy a house I paid cash for it. It probably would have been smarter to take out a mortgage and invest the money, but there is something about having a monthly nut that is under a k.
     
  17. Sohogator

    Sohogator GC Hall of Fame

    3,568
    576
    358
    Aug 22, 2012
    Doubling down on nonsense I see. The cost of a GLS 450 has not gone from 90 to 120K much less $150K (2024 base is 85K) in a couple of years. Like most high end German cars your can option the to the moon. You should see what you can do starting with a base 911.

    I bet you are a lousy shopper.
     
    Last edited: Jul 1, 2023
    • Dislike Dislike x 1
  18. citygator

    citygator VIP Member

    12,034
    2,628
    3,303
    Apr 3, 2007
    Charlotte
    When rates were 2.5% (my rate) and SALT wasn’t really capped it would be a crime not to have a mortgage…. At 6% rates and SALT caps… its more “meh”.