How China's Military Views the United States

Again, they won't fall in a day, but it's happening and has been happening for a while now. I picked 2008 because the last members to join were in 2007. Membership has been the same since then except when UK exited. Since the graph didn't show a significant change equivalent to UK's GDP in 2020/21 I'm assuming that was factored into the trend.

The fact that manufacturing is increasingly less of a role in European economies is a matter of major concern. In the event of a conflict, it's gonna be making things that makes a difference, not real estate prices, social media apps, or financial services.

 

2 smaller members joined since then. Forget who, but looked it up.

But I disagree about the decline in any reasonable timeframe (given enough time, all will decline).

 

Hmm, I can't find the new members, only Romania and Bulgaria as the last ones in 2007.

Anyhow, right on cue from FT:

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Confirming the discrepancy in economic growth:

"In 2008, the EU and the US economies were roughly the same size. But since the global financial crisis, their economic fortunes have dramatically diverged. As Jeremy Shapiro and Jana Puglierin of the European Council on Foreign Relations point out(opens a new window): “In 2008 the EU’s economy was somewhat larger than America’s: $16.2tn versus $14.7tn. By 2022, the US economy had grown to $25tn, whereas the EU and the UK together had only reached $19.8tn. America’s economy is now nearly one-third bigger. It is more than 50 per cent larger than the EU without the UK.”

Talks about the impact of energy prices:

"Unlike Europe, the US also has plentiful and cheap domestic supplies of energy. The shale revolution means that America is now the world’s largest producer of oil and gas. Meanwhile, energy prices in Europe have soared. The Ukraine war and the loss of cheap Russian gas mean that European industry typically pays three or four times as much for energy as their American competitors. Gloomy European bosses say this is already leading to factory closures in Europe."

And how the services industry shines in contrast to the manufacturing industry, hallmark of deindustrialization:

"Europe does outperform in “lifestyle” industries. Almost two-thirds of the world’s tourist arrivals are into Europe. The luxury goods market is dominated by European companies. Football, the world’s most popular sport, is dominated by European teams — although many of the biggest clubs are now owned by Middle Eastern, American or Asian investors."

 

Could have swore I saw too but it looks like it's just Croatia in 2013
Enlargement of the European Union - Wikipedia

That's also cherry picking years. Those also a pretty tight convergence about 5 or 6 years ago.

And they got hit by the economic crisis a lot worse not because they don't have as much manufacturing, but because they don't have actual fiscal Union. The Germans pretty much controlled interest rates and they're still overly obsessed about inflation. That's the biggest advantage we have, not an emphasis on manufacturing.

 

Ah OK, yeah I missed Croatia.

I don't think I explained myself well, I didn't mean to say that their decline is because of their lack of emphasis on manufacturing compared to us. I meant to say that their deindustrialization is another nail in the coffin, in addition to the other reasons for their decline including fiscal policy among others.

What I see happening is that European capital, including human capital, will be increasingly siphoned away to the US. This will likely create hardship and divisions within the EU, both between member states and within each state as people generally don't like to blame themselves for their issues, and that will probably further accelerate their decline.

 

That sounds like a Kremlin fantasy. If they fail, it will be because it turned to fascism and away from the liberal democratic values that have United the Western alliance. We run the same risk. China notwithstanding, economic productivity is largely a function of those liberal values

 

The Navy has finally been convinced to terminate its billions and billions of dollars LCS program on the realization that the vessel is not survivable against China.

 

Good read. Pretty basic

 

How would you reconcile that article with this trade data?
China Exports of natural graphite to Sweden - 2023 Data 2024 Forecast 1994-2022 Historical

Or how about these articles?

$1.5 billion dollar Chinese investment in Sweden to build anodes, presumably making use of graphite.
China’s Putailai to build anode factory in Sweden

CATL's 14 GWh battery plant in Germany, plan for 100 GWh battery in Hungary.
Politics aside, China's CATL ramps up cell production in Germany

"Some 44% of planned battery capacity in Europe by 2030 is from Asian companies, data shows, with CATL top of the list - prompting some concern in political circles on an over-reliance on foreign producers for a key technology."

 

China will not be stopped. The US has always had and still has the option of getting along with her …

 

“Besides THAT, Mrs. Lincoln, how did you enjoy the theatre?”