Well, that ended in a hurry. Rebel Russian mercenaries will turn back to avoid bloodshed, leader says
can they do that? Race to Moscow to overthrow Putin and just turnaround and go back like it never happened?
Not necessarily. Prigo has a very loyal (and fairly capable) army behind him. He doesn't have air support, of course, so he could be defeated, but it would be messy.
See some of the posts from the last page. Supposedly he agreed to stop in exchange for changes at the MOD. My guess is that the cash that was exiled from him will magically return too. But Putin is weakened by this, so this likely isn’t the end of the story,
Putin doesn't really care what the West thinks of him. He does not want the Russian people to think of him as a failure, because then he's a dead man walking.
One lesson to take from this is that if you make a deal with the devil (an independent private military company that recruits from prisons), then you need to be prepared that things might go sideways at some point. Putin may like the fact that Wagner is independent of the ineptitude of the Russian army, but he found out that Prigo is a little too independent of his own government and is a loose cannon. Just goes to emphasize the fact that Putin has zero military experience and doesn't know what he's doing as a wartime president. He can't seem to get everyone on the same page and pointed in the same direction, so he's lacking in leadership abilities as well. You should never put a spook (intelligence guy) in charge of a war. Putin has spent way too much time playing one general off of another, which may work in peacetime, but does not work in war. Putin is no FDR.
I think Ps main beef was the Russian defense dept demanded militia members sign contracts with military. So assuming they let up on that, pardoned all involved and maybe change military leadership that was enough. Putin probably didn’t really have a choice.
If decapitation doesn't happen within the first few hours, it's already too late. If Prigozhin is to succeed he'd have to do it through a civil war. It looks like he's already backing off though. Maybe he's decided to cut his losses, save his life and fortunes and accept an exile while handing over Wagner. Putin can use this opportunity to get rid of Shoigu. Wars are won by logistics. I'm not sure how Prigo can even pay his soldiers at this point without Putin's permission, let alone securing ammo, fuel, and spare parts.
Perhaps there is an off-road after all, that doesn’t include nukes, but still gives Russia decisive victory in Ukraine. Prigozhin is well thought of by the Russian populace. Putin gives him amnesty (which bolsters his standing by association) and makes all the changes Prigozhin has been screaming for. Top levels of MoD are turned over and more competent leadership steps forward. Russia begins a rejuvenated overhaul in Ukraine and begins scoring victories on the battlefield. What if the changes Putin and Prigozhin have agreed to lift performance to what we were all expecting when this began? The GM and head coach have been fired, but the players are still there.
I’m not sure changing military brass will help. The problem is Putin and his meddling, and pretty much any top brass is going to first worry about what Putin thinks vs planning optimal war strategy. I think Putin is the Jerry Jones of wartime leaders.
Prigo is supposedly exiled to Belarus, according to Moscow. It will be fascinating to see what happens with his men, and whether he survives there.
The chance for a decisive victory in Ukraine vanished a year ago. This turn of events will not make Russia's military a more cohesive fighting force. The changes that need to be made, if Russia clearly knows what those are and is willing to make them, will benefit their military in 5-10 years. Not next week or next month. The new policies have to be formalized and filtered through training programs, and there is not time for that before this war likely ends. Just getting rid of high-level military leaders is not a very good answer, because the ones waiting to take their place were trained by them and will likely have most of the same habits. In some cases, they may be worse. In fact, this event is far more likely to open a door for Ukraine to get past Russia's defenses. For the short term, specifically, this coup attempt has been a major positive for Ukraine. There is no other way to spin it. Russian troops are distracted, and probably questioning their government and military leadership. Some may side with Prigo and blame the incompetence of the army for their problems. If some troops were pulled back from the front to defend Moscow, Ukraine will figure that out and take advantage.
That’s not what Prigozhin was saying. Prigozhin basically absolved Putin and said the MoD have been lying the Putin the entire time. I tend to agree that’s likely true. There is even a small chance Putin allowed all this to happen to give himself cover to make all the changes he agreed to, knowing they were necessary, but also knowing the public would question the changes a lot more without a substantial need. In less than 24 hours, Prigozhin magically goes from “time for a new President” to “back to the battlefield we go”. Seems a little too convenient.
Wait what? Belarus? How the heck? There's no way Putin can't get to him in Belarus, he's got to know that. The only way he'd agree to that is if he knows that Putin doesn't want to get him. The only way Putin doesn't want to punish him after what he's done is if there's a lot more going on under the surface. Could this all really actually be a ploy by Putin and Prigozhin?
Apparently, Lukashenko and Prigozhin have been friends for 20 years. So perhaps Prigozhin feels safer there. We’ll see what actually ends up happening. There is a small chance this was a false flag, psyops type operation. It’s strange how it all started and ended in less than 24 hours.
Prig going to run war from Belarus? Kremlin released he won’t be prosecuted. Ploy to see who was disloyal and join him? Lots of underground political strategy in this mess.
