Honestly, I’m much more concerned now about Putin using nukes to neutralize any fallout from this and to gain the upper hand in Ukraine. He needs to come strong now to reassert his dominance.
See my post above about that. Putin’s primary concern needs to be his own personal future. If he uses nukes, there is no realistic future with him in it.
Putin will see this as another incarnation of the West causing trouble on “his” turf and will have the option of either tucking his tail and hope the West doesn’t come at him again or hit back hard and regain some genuine (albeit I’ll-gotten) respect around the world. I don’t think he’s under the notion that he can still claim victory in Ukraine right after this debacle. Nobody will take him seriously.
One of the key rules in analyzing Modern Russia: never think of organized crime, "legitimate business," government, and military and intelligence as separate entities.
To clarify, the situation is not funny in any way. Anyone who would try to minimize the gravity of the situation in Russia and go on with the same talking points about inevitable victory in Ukraine would invite laughter. There is no doubt that as things stand at this moment Russia has bigger problems than trying to expand its empire.
This has literally nothing to do with the West. His own crony started a civil war to overthrow his own military leadership. I'd be far more likely to believe this is a symptom of an organized crime power struggle than any sort of geopolitical game.
No one has to take him seriously. We just have to pretend to. Those of us who are married know how to let an argument that you’ve clearly won go to give one’s spouse a graceful retreat. That’s what this would be.
That’s a funny metaphor, but it doesn’t apply to this situation. Putin knows the west already sees him as a failure. Putin was already very paranoid about a coup driven by the West. This will turn up the dial, up the ante. Predators are most dangerous when they feel vulnerable. Nothing the west could tell him here would make him feel any less vulnerable.
Seeing some things out there that the deal being reported is a lie? If the goal of this operation was to confuse everyone well done Russia.
China hedged its bets.They'll absorb any losses just fine. Theyre playing with house money. Their only 'loss', would be the extent to which precedent could be invoked, vis a via Taiwan. A collateral matter mostly, but maybe seeing Russia implode might serve as a deterent, in the way seeing someone get in a wreck going down black ice might serve to deter a subsequent driver from following that path.
If what you are saying is true (and I don’t share this opinion) that there is no off-ramp for Putin, that it is all or nothing, no matter what, then you have made the strongest possible argument for us to enter this war with all of our strength. So maybe we just try to find him a face-saving out before it comes to that.
We're in the 2nd day. Too early to say, imo. But if prig succeeds with in a week, would that be fast enough for you?
