It’s also the case that those forces being pinned down, it’s why the offensive from Wagner is taking place now. If they pull those troops to defend Moscow, that front collapses.
agree. But it seems for this entire war the west and Ukraine have been lacking with getting info into Russia.
China has to be crapping their pants about now. This has not gone the way they expected. It may not be a good model for the Taiwan invasion plan. They may need to have their military start cutting off their own fingers (Asian mob style) to prove their loyalty to Xi. "You're not very loyal--you only cut off six fingers. I cut off eight! What do you mean file a report after we're finished--I have no fingers!"
Yeah, how China absorbs all of this, even if Putin survives it, is fascinating to me. Because on its surface, all of this is terrible news on every level for China.
Well yeah, that last part is what Ukraine must bank on. How can Russia sustain an invasion if *also* holding back a coup or civil war? If Russia gets really messy, the Ukraine war just logistically cannot go on. It can’t be sustained in that circumstance. This is probably Ukraine’s best chance to really make progress, it doesn’t even have to get “messy”, just enough such that Russian military needs to pull back to defend the Putin regime or that the front lines can no longer be supplied. Once that breaks it could happen in the blink of an eye. Ukraines peril doesn’t come to an end if/when the coup is resolved, but conventional wisdom would be this guy at least wouldn’t double down on the same mistakes as Putin. He is cut from the same cloth and is himself a war criminal, so longer term it is far more unpredictable, but I don’t see a guy doing a coup then going straight back in to Ukraine.
BBC updates. Russia: Moscow mayor says stay indoors as Prigozhin's Wagner mercenaries head towards city - BBC News
Here's an interesting blog post I follow that details the fact that aircraft are turning off transponders apparently because of fears that the Wagner group are targeting military aircraft in Russian airspace. I was skeptical but this coup thing seems to be gathering mo Belarus President Turns Off Plane's Transponder Over Russian Airspace - Attempted Russia Coup Is Real - View from the Wing
Wasn’t Prigohzin pushing the rhetoric of tactical nukes a while back? No good choices over there. Reminds me of something.
I'm curious to see what Putin will do in St. Pete to pretend that his administration is not in danger. His reason for being in St. Pete cannot be that he is hiding from Prigo. Will he: a) Heroically read stories to school children and tell them to keep learning how to bayonet the enemy? b) Have a military parade (with two broken-down jeeps pushed by ten elderly, retired soldiers) in his own honor to thank himself for two decades of loyal service to Mother Russia? c) Take a tour of the museums and ballet and take photo ops, just like in his old secret agent days as the Russian James Bond? Whatever he does, he needs to say that he planned this trip weeks in advance, and he couldn't cancel it under any circumstances.
Yep, along with brilliantly deceptive disorganized retreats from Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Kherson; the emasculation of their Black Sea Fleet; the failure to achieve a decisive advantage in the air, much less air superiority …
Coups need to be really fast, decapitation is the first move, but that's not happening. IMO it's more like a civil war, and in that context early confusion and weak resistance toward overwhelming force is entirely expected. I think Putin will set up defenses south of Moscow, I doubt that there are enough security forces far from Moscow that can stop Wagner. If Wagner can't break through quickly and enter Moscow, then it'll spell trouble for them. The security forces that let them through before can quickly turn against them. As we speak, Akhmat is heading toward Rostov. They're the most loyal forces to Putin, which is probably why they were sent there. Since Wagner's forces are all marching on Moscow, Prig will either have to give up Rostov or convince Kadyrov to switch sides. As of now, no political or military figure of any import is publicly supporting Prig, so if he can turn Kadyrov that could start a domino effect. If he can't though, his rebellion is basically over. All Putin would have to do then is to destroy the road leading to Moscow and with no means of resupply Wagner will be out of fuel in no time. If shooting starts, he'll run out of ammo very quickly as well as there's no way he's bringing enough supplies with him to travel 1000 miles from the Ukraine border to Moscow in 1 day. Basically, if Prig can't turn Kadyrov, then he's finished. He needs to turn Kadyrov.
was thinking this as well. Putin will circle the wagons to Moscow which should open things up for a Ukraine counter.
Being reported that huge transport planes under Russian control landing in Belarus. Probably there to pull military assets (troops?, equipment) back towards Moscow
